Aaron Blake
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Articles by Aaron Blake
Why Trump's dubious election lawsuits in Alaska and California should raise eyebrows
President Donald Trump's Justice Department has gone to great lengths to bulldoze the ethical line between enforcing the law and serving as the legal wing of Trump's political operation The latest episodes: A pair of extraordinary lawsuits in which the DOJ seeks to intervene in the vote-counting process in two states: Alaska and California. Both lawsuits appear very unlikely to bear fruit; indeed, experts say they basically amount to legal Hail Marys. But there's a bigger takeaway.
Trump turns the GOP's Ramaswamy ad headache into a migraine
President Donald Trump has been undermining his own party for months, continuously causing more headaches for Republicans even long after most presidents would've taken the Election Day cue to rein themselves in. So why would that stop on the eve of those elections? Trump's latest move is trying to bully Republicans into embracing a highly controversial political ad that seeks to weaponize a situation involving alleged child sexual abuse.
JD Vance’s ‘stop whining’ defense of Ramaswamy’s ad epitomizes his Machiavellian politics
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Fights over loyalty to America, party and Trump dominate Michigan and Kansas Senate debates
Michigan and Kansas held some of the final major Senate debates of the 2026 midterm elections on Wednesday night. And they were a study in contrasts. The Michigan Senate debate between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers was bitterly personal and ferociously contested — as befits a contest that could decide the chamber's majority. Each candidate had a simple task.
The growing corruption allegations engulfing Trump's orbit — at a bad time for the GOP
There is increasing evidence that voters are concerned about corruption ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. A CNN poll on Wednesday showed 19% of registered voters say it's their top issue — behind only a combination of the economy and the cost of living. And two weeks before Election Day, the Trump administration is suddenly inundating them with rather vivid stories of alleged corruption.
The big questions about who's to blame for Starshield disruptions in Ukraine
So, who slowed down a crucial satellite communications system used by Ukraine, making the country more vulnerable to Russian attacks in recent days? Even some key Republicans are demanding answers and promising consequences for those responsible. But the Trump administration and its top ally, Elon Musk, have so far offered a confusing, incomplete and sometimes contradictory set of answers.
The Trump team's disdain for court orders is blowing up in court. Accountability has been slow in coming
A federal judge raked President Donald Trump's administration over the coals on Monday in a case involving his plans to renovate a public golf course in Washington, DC. After the administration cut down more than 430 trees without properly notifying US District Judge Ana Reyes, she said last week she was “furious” and issued a court order to stop it.
The (very red) pattern of Trump's 2026 campaign rallies
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll over the weekend featured a telling stat. Other recent polls have generally shown voters prefer Democrats over Republicans for Congress by close to 10 points on the all-important “generic ballot.” But when President Donald Trump is invoked — i.e. choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, versus a GOP-controlled Congress that could pass his agenda — that gap balloons.
Trump's worst political instincts are on full display
It's clear that many Republicans running for office in the 2026 midterm elections would prefer to keep President Donald Trump at arm's length. And Trump keeps reinforcing exactly why. Not only is he a historically unpopular president heading into the midterms, but he and his team keep doubling down on the terrible political instincts that landed them in this mess. Trump making puzzling political moves isn't exactly new.
Trump is playing to his base in red-state campaign swing. But he's often been dismissive of those voters
It's been more than 10 years since President Donald Trump quipped , “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose voters.” His base isn't nearly so devoted to him these days. But he still returned to the theme this weekend during one of his many recent stops in deep-red territory where Republicans hope he'll turn out the base for the November midterms. “When you stand up here, it's just like the love ,” Trump said at a rally in Tennessee.
Talarico conspiracy theory is the latest to blow up in MAGA's face
Two weeks ago, GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri saw his conspiracy theory about former special counsel Jack Smith implode spectacularly at a congressional hearing for all to see. Rather than seemingly learning a lesson from that episode, the MAGA movement in recent days embraced another sketchy theory that quickly fell apart — that Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico was missing from the campaign trail because of a mental health episode.
Trump thinks he should have won the Nobel Peace Prize. His quest for it is now the butt of the joke
President Donald Trump is enduring his second straight Nobel loss.
The states that aren't cooperating with Democrats' Senate majority hopes
Democrats' path to the Senate majority is improving. In fact, recent polls have shown the party leading in three states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need at least two of those to win the majority. But even as it looks like they might clear that daunting threshold, other states are proving more difficult.
Trump's comment about Iran nuking Los Angeles and San Diego was incoherent, not malicious
President Donald Trump says many bizarre and even hateful things. But signaling he would allow Iran to nuke Los Angeles and San Diego is not one of them. During a rally in Nebraska on Monday night, Trump “ weaved ” his way right into a controversy that had critics, some in the media and even a GOP congressional candidate accusing him of rhetorically conceding major population centers on the West Coast to America's sworn enemy. And you could be forgiven for reading the president's comments that way.
Trump blames the messenger for the GOP's problems
President Donald Trump has locked on to a new excuse for the GOP's impending 2026 midterm losses: It's the messaging, not the results. And the thing is, there is some truth in there — just not in the way Trump intends. Trump has rolled out this purported explanation repeatedly over the last two days. “We're doing an extremely poor job of promotion and an extremely great job of running the country,” he said Wednesday at the White House.
8 in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump on inflation. That's extremely rare for a president
We don't yet know how the 2026 midterm elections will shake out. What we can say right now is that President Donald Trump's handling of inflation is a historic liability — the likes of which we've rarely seen in modern American politics. As many as 8 in 10 Americans now disapprove of Trump on that issue. That's more than disapproved of presidents for wars gone wrong, botched crisis responses and even major scandals like Watergate.
It's official: Trump's midterm convention was a bust
It seemed a highly questionable decision even at the time — to hold an unorthodox GOP midterm convention dubbed “ Trump-a-palooza ” largely focused on a historically unpopular president. But President Donald Trump muscled the idea through anyway, and no Republicans seemed willing to object. Now it's pretty clear it was a dud – and might well have hurt the GOP. And even the man who seemingly could have benefitted most is apparently saying that out loud.
An embarrassing moment for the GOP, a defensive witness and other takeaways from Jack Smith's hearing
Special counsel Jack Smith, who brought two indictments against now-President Donald Trump in 2023, testified in front of Congress again on Tuesday — this time, to the Senate Judiciary Committee. Smith's testimony comes as Republicans continue to probe the investigations into Trump and as some in the party, including the president, have pushed for often-unspecified criminal charges to be brought against Smith. Here are the major takeaways from Tuesday's hearing.
12 moves that illustrate the brazenness of Trump's second term — like those taxpayer-funded ads
When the Trump administration began running taxpayer-funded “public service announcements” that looked suspiciously like campaign ads for President Donald Trump last week, the White House gamely maintained they were “ very clearly not campaign ads .” Then it gave up all pretense. As of Sunday, the administration was running a new ad that was basically an actual campaign ad , repurposed from Trump's 2024 bid .
Republicans in tough races are suddenly concerned about ICE too
One of the surest signs that Republicans are quite concerned about the 2026 midterm elections is the sudden onslaught of them distancing themselves from President Doanld Trump and his unpopular policies. They've called for an end to the Iran war, criticized his tariffs and removed Trump references from their website. And now we can add another one to the list: They're suddenly taking issue with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. And that includes some of the agency's strongest allies.
Trump has skirted concerns about corruption. Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding could change that.
President Donald Trump has spent the last 20-plus months thumbing his nose at conflicts of interest He, his family and his businesses have used his power to enrich themselves to the tune of billions of dollars — and rather openly so And yet, corruption isn't generally considered to be among Trump's biggest political problems. But Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding could be changing that dynamic somewhat — to the point where even some Republican senators are finding the stench difficult to ignore.
Trump's reason for holding the Kennedy Center hostage doesn't even make sense
There is plenty that's bizarre about President Donald Trump's attempt to take the Kennedy Center hostage over a judge's refusal to let him put his name on it. He's now indicated twice in recent days that he will abandon the center — and even let it be “ripped down” — if the courts don't change the ruling. But high on the bizarreness quotient are Trump's claims that the Kennedy Center needs him. They just don't make sense.
JD Vance's telling 'give us another chance' flub
Vice President JD Vance this week asked voters for “another chance” — something that is decidedly contrary to President Donald Trump's midterm messaging — before seeming to catch himself. “Give us another chance — or, give us another couple of years to continue to work on the amazing things that we've been doing for the past two years,” Vance said on the “All In” podcast A couple of reflections.
Trump's transactional presidency takes a more brazen turn
Few things have defined President Donald Trump's second term as much as his transactionalism. He's gone to great lengths to wield potential official actions for political and even personal gain in ways simply not seen since at least Watergate. It's this same sensibility that led to Trump's first impeachment in 2019, after he suggestively tied Ukraine's military aid to that country investigating the Bidens ahead of the 2020 election.
Why the Supreme Court's rebuke of Trump might help democracy more than Democrats
The reactions to the US Supreme Court putting an end to President Donald Trump's efforts to significantly restrict mail ballots in the 2026 midterm elections were about what you'd expect. It was largely Democrats, whose voters tend to avail themselves of mail voting more than Republicans do, who cheered the ruling.
The 2026 primaries taught us a lot about what's to come in the midterms
The 2026 primary season featured the rise of democratic socialist and anti-Israel candidates on the left, a host of incumbents losing primaries, President Donald Trump getting revenge but also seeing his hold on his base waver, and a bare-knuckle redistricting push by Republicans that could reverberate for years to come.
Republicans are squirming over Trump's $5,000 check quid pro quo
When President Donald Trump said he would give adult US citizens $5,000 each if they reelected Republican majorities in the 2026 midterm elections, Sen. Roger Marshall was one of the first lawmakers to tout the idea. “Comment how you will spend your $5,000 Trump Dividend when Republicans win in November,” the Kansas Republican posted late Wednesday night on X By Saturday, though, Marshall sounded a much more skeptical note during a debate at the Kansas State Fair.
Americans' increased belief in voter fraud is a scary prospect in 2026
President Donald Trump messing with the 2026 midterms beforehand — as he's trying to do by sharply restricting mail ballots — is only part of the potential threat he's posing to US elections. The other is his demonstrated tendency for claiming elections have been stolen after the fact, which resulted in the largest attack on the US Capitol in 200 years. New polling suggests Trump has kept that soil fertilized with a large portion of the country.
Trump can't stop insulting his own candidate in Texas. Why?
Republicans' hopes of holding their Senate majority might hinge on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton more than anyone else. And President Donald Trump seemingly can't stop insulting him. Trump has repeatedly made the case for Paxton — whom he endorsed over the safer candidate, incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn — in recent days. And over and over, he's thickly layered it in insults directed at the way Paxton looks, dresses and speaks.
Vance's midterm pitch is strikingly different from Trump's
In his keynote speech Thursday night at the Republican midterm convention, Vice President JD Vance offered a very different midterm pitch than his boss. He acknowledged many voters dislike certain things about the Trump administration, but he urged them to nonetheless vote against the Democratic “crazies.” It was a more realistic and nuanced pitch, and it's a striking contrast to President Donald Trump's all-is-great, we're-in-the-Golden-Age approach.
Trump tries to motivate Republicans at midterm convention but he’s the problem
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Some on the right cry 'socialism' over new Trump proposal
The Republican-controlled House last week adopted a resolution denouncing socialism “in all its forms.” But now the Trump administration is attempting something that even many on the right say sounds a lot like one of those forms of socialism. And it's merely the latest example. Indeed, Trump wants to make socialism the GOP's big boogeyman in the 2026 midterm elections.
Pete Hegseth's problems are getting harder to ignore
When GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell voted against Pete Hegseth for defense secretary last year, he bypassed the big-ticket controversies over Hegseth's personal life and instead focused on his lack of experience.
The GOP's game of chicken over Ken Paxton in Texas is getting testy
This spring's Texas GOP Senate runoff was one of the costliest and ugliest Republican nominating contests in recent history. And more than three months after Attorney General Ken Paxton prevailed over Sen. John Cornyn with President Donald Trump's backing, Republicans are still struggling mightily to move forward, despite how central the race is to the Senate majority. Pride appears to be winning out over common purpose, as the party engages in a high-stakes internal game of chicken.
The verdict is in on Trump’s ‘Lake America’ and Canada trade war. It’s not good
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Americans hate both 'Lake America' and Trump's trade war with Canada
President Donald Trump has dropped another clunker in the laps of his fellow Republicans in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections. His new trade war with Canada and his related move to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America” are the latest in a series of unpopular actions. In fact, new polling suggests they're even more unpopular than Trump's previous tariffs and efforts to rename things.
Trump's bogus narrative about the GOP losing in the 2026 midterms
President Donald Trump keeps trying to preemptively blame congressional Republicans if they lose big in the 2026 midterms — but he's now making an argument that's flat-out wrong His talking point in a recent interview underscored how culpable he would be if his party loses this fall. In the interview with Fox News host Trey Gowdy that aired Sunday, Trump appeared to confirm reports that his midterm efforts will largely focus on touting his own record .
The problems with Trump's ranking of the presidents
President Donald Trump appears preoccupied with slapping his name on things these days. And on Thursday, that involved slapping it atop a ranking of presidents. Trump shared an image on social media that declared himself “the greatest” president — better than even George Washington and Abraham Lincoln. It's not clear where the list came from, but it does not seem as though great care went into assembling it.
Trump's ‘Lake America' move revives one of his biggest political flops
It increasingly feels as though President Donald Trump is trying to do unpopular things ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. But he might have outdone himself with his latest move. Trump on Thursday signed an executive order to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America.” He did so after Canada declined to capitulate in the trade war he recently launched. While there's not yet polling on this specific move, it's difficult to believe it will be anything but a complete political dud.
Dan Sullivan will face Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Here's how much that could hurt the GOP
The situation that Republicans strove to avoid in Alaska has come to pass: Two Dan Sullivans will appear on the general election ballot for US Senate. One is an incumbent GOP senator, and the other is a political unknown that the party fears will siphon votes from the senator in a key race for the Senate majority. But how worried should the GOP be? In short, history suggests this could hurt the party at least somewhat — but likely only in a very close race.
Trump needs to get tough on China to get tough on Iran's economy. He's been reluctant to do that
The Trump administration appears to have landed on a fallback strategy in the Iran war after military strikes and negotiations failed to deliver victory: threats of harsh economic sanctions Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called them the “toughest sanctions in history,” which will “collapse this regime.” He's even called it an “ economic D-Day ” for Iran, comparing it to the historic invasion of Nazi-occupied France during World War II.
Trump, the anti-populist
When President Donald Trump took the political world by storm in 2016, his rise was often described as a "populist" one. And he certainly played the part of a renegade challenging a broken political system on behalf of regular Americans. Ten years later, though, Trump has almost completely abandoned this brand of politics. Indeed, in many ways, he has become the anti-populist. And he's got the poll numbers to prove it.
Darline Graham's race in South Carolina is a test of Trump's chutzpah
President Donald Trump's endorsement has never looked as feeble as it has in the month of August 2026. Already six of his chosen candidates have been defeated. But Tuesday's special primary runoff for US Senate in South Carolina is an especially big test of not just his endorsement and domination of his party, but also his chutzpah.
Alaska was a trial run for Democrats' Senate majority hopes. How did it go?
The Alaska primary on Tuesday presented us with something unusual ahead of the 2026 midterm elections: An actual matchup between the two candidates who will face off in November in a key Senate race. That's because the state uses an all-party primary system and ranked-choice voting. Also, there were no other serious contenders. The results should be pretty encouraging for Democrats. With about 80% of votes counted, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 48.1% to 42.7%.
The Democrats' one neat trick to try to win a Senate majority
The battle for the Senate in 2026 comes with some fascinating wrinkles: In a trio of races — Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota — the Democrat has dropped out to help an independent try to win in a red state. But this strategy has already been attempted in a handful of Senate races in recent years, and it has yet to actually work — at least at the federal level. So … could it this year? It remains unlikely. But history suggests it's worth it to keep trying.
Senate Democrats have 1 unpopular candidate. It’s much worse for Republicans
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No one seems to be able to tell Trump 'no' — and it's a huge problem for the GOP
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Trump's Kennedy Center and ballroom fixations are political malpractice for the GOP
Republicans are facing a potentially ugly 2026 midterm election in less than three months. And nobody seems to be able — or perhaps even cares to try — to prevail upon President Donald Trump to mitigate the damage. Two recent developments are a case in point. On Friday, Trump appealed to the Supreme Court to be able to continue building his coveted ballroom — which Americans already don't like.
New details on Trump's secret plane swap expose the administration's lies
President Donald Trump late Tuesday confirmed reporting from the Washington Post, CNN and others that he secretly switched planes in Turkey last month because of a security threat. “I guess there was a threat out there,” he told reporters. “I didn't really ask too much about it.” The president added of the Secret Service and military telling him to switch planes: “I just have to do what they say.
Another Democratic nail-biter in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday's primaries
The Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin was neck-and-neck early Wednesday morning, with democratic socialist state lawmaker Francesca Hong and moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley separated by less than a percentage point. The race was seen as a gauge of the party's ideological direction — testing whether the progressive insurgency that has played out in deep-blue districts this spring and summer would extend into another presidential battleground.
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