Adilzhan Ismailov on Muck Rack

Adilzhan Ismailov

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Democratic tipping points

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By Antonio Ciccone, Adilzhan Ismailov
| VoxEU.org
Persistence of democratisation following transitory economic shocks plays an important role in the theory of political institutions. This column tests the theory of democratic tipping points using rainfall shocks in the world’s most agricultural countries since 1946. Negative rainfall shocks have a strong and transitory effect on agricultural output, but a persistent positive effect on the probability of democratisation even after ten years.
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