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Articles by Anton Barbashin
The SCO after 2022: Russian Ambitions and Reality
Anton Barbashin on how the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a useful but secondary Eurasian forum for Moscow, became an important platform Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) occupied an important, though not priority, place in Moscow’s foreign-policy calculations.
Why the Kremlin fears even the ‘managed opposition’ in Russia
In the weeks leading up to the Duma elections, the Kremlin accelerated what is known in the country as “ballot sterilisation”. It removed the remaining risk factors that could demonstrate any form of public dissatisfaction. Candidates of the so-called managed opposition parties, such as the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), have been arrested or barred from running, thus diminishing the prospect for a protest vote against the governing United Russia.
Why the Kremlin fears even the ‘managed opposition’ in Russia
In the weeks leading up to the Duma elections, the Kremlin accelerated what is known in the country as “ballot sterilisation”. It removed the remaining risk factors that could demonstrate any form of public dissatisfaction. Candidates of the so-called managed opposition parties, such as the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), have been arrested or barred from running, thus diminishing the prospect for a protest vote against the governing United Russia.
Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver
Roman Chernikov on how Belarus has tried to preserve its sovereignty after 2022 Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is rightly seen as a shock that reset the post-Soviet space. After February 2022, most states in the region moved to put distance between themselves and Moscow. A few, by contrast, treated the war as an opportunity and accepted the role of Kremlin satellite. Belarus does not fit either pattern.
What Putin Wants from BRICS – Riddle Russia
10 hours ago WASHINGTON – Bombs had been dropping for more than a week when President Donald Trump assured congressional Republicans and donors the war in Iran wouldn't last long. "We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil," Trump told House Republicans during their …
What Putin Wants from BRICS
Anton Barbashin on what Moscow has actually achieved within BRICS since 2022 Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix Since at least 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeated at least once a year that “BRICS is one of the key elements of the emerging multipolar world.” Sometimes he recycles the phrase verbatim, as in 2016 and 2024; sometimes he adds small flourishes—insisting, for instance, that a “just” multipolar order is being built on the basis of “constructive cooperation” among BRICS...
Israel as Temporary Refuge or Permanent Home: The Fate of Russia’s Wartime Aliyah Original
Since the beginning of 2022, Israel has absorbed a major wave of aliyah from the countries of the former Soviet Union. The overwhelming majority of these new immigrants have come from Russia. According to a study conducted in 2019−2020 under the author’s direction, the emigration potential among Jews and their family members in Russia at that time stood at 100,000−120,000 people. It was expected that, in the absence of major upheavals, this potential would be realized gradually.
Russia and Azerbaijan: From Balancing to Confrontation Original
Ruslan Suleymanov on how the war in Ukraine has reshaped relations between Moscow and Baku Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix For years after independence, Azerbaijan carefully balanced between regional powers—chiefly Russia and Turkey—avoiding any unambiguous alignment and steering clear of military alliances.
Status Quo Under Pressure: Transnistria After 2022
Denis Cenusa on how the war in Ukraine has changed relations between Russia and Transnistria Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix All of Russia’s “satellites of influence” were caught off guard by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, including Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria. Located almost 1,000 km from Russia’s borders, the region was suddenly cut off from its main patron.
Trump and Russian Multipolarity: Weighing the Pros and Cons
Anton Barbashin on the upsides and downsides of Trump’s presidency for the Kremlin Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix For a year and a half the Kremlin has maintained a wait-and-see posture toward Donald Trump. While criticizing U.S. actions—in Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela—Russian officials and state propaganda carefully avoid personal attacks on Trump himself.
The End of Russian Hegemony: How Azerbaijan Rewrote the Rules in the Caucasus – Riddle Russia
Roman Chernikov on the transformation of the South Caucasus in 2025 Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix The outgoing year of 2025 delivered developments in the South Caucasus that would have seemed unthinkable just a short time ago. Armenia has begun purchasing gasoline produced by Azerbaijan’s state-owned SOCAR. Earlier, it received its first shipments of Russian and Kazakh grain transited through Baku—a model that is quietly becoming the new normal.
Russia’s Pivot to the Eastern Route: Balancing Azerbaijan with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan? – Riddle Russia
Nurlan Aliyev on the International North-South Transport Corridor Eastern Alternative Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix In recent years, Russian efforts to develop the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) have accelerated. In particular, over the past months there has been growing momentum behind plans to advance the corridor’s eastern route.
Russia-Africa Ties Catch Global Tailwinds in 2025 – Riddle Russia
Ivan U. Klyszcz on Russia — Africa dynamics in 2025 Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix This week, the Kremlin will hold the 2nd Russia-Africa ministerial conference—the first in the summit series launched in 2019 to take place in Africa. The Egyptian government has reprised its role (as in 2019) as co-organizer and now host of the gathering. The meeting is reportedly intended to set the stage for the 2026 Russia-Africa Summit and to focus on trade.
Neighbors of Strategic Importance – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on how post-Soviet countries have become crucial pillars of the Russian economy Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many experts on the post-Soviet space concluded that the war would lead directly to a sharp decline or even complete collapse of Russian influence in the region.
Blik vanuit het Kremlin: Europa als belangrijkste tegenstander
Dat de Verenigde Staten de relatie met Europa op scherp hebben gezet lijkt goed nieuws voor Rusland. Toch is de houding van het Kremlin ten aanzien van de Europese Unie complexer dan op het eerste oog lijkt, schrijft Anton Barbashin, hoofdredacteur van onze partner Riddle Russia.
Europe as the Chief Adversary: How Moscow Has Rewritten Its Threat Hierarchy – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on Russia’s contradictory stance toward the European Union Читать на русском Photo: Scanpix Until January 2025, Moscow’s view of its adversaries remained strikingly straightforward: the United States occupied the top spot without challenge, the European Union played a distinctly secondary role — routinely dismissed as «taking orders from Washington» — and Ukraine was not recognized as an independent actor at all.
Russia’s Likely Answer to Trump’s Ukraine Plan
The draft U.S. peace plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine appeases many Russian demands. Yet Moscow will likely still find the deal unacceptable. From ECFR. To read the commentary in Western capitals, one might think President Donald Trump’s leaked plan to end the war in Ukraine was Russia’s dream document. The plan is likely based on the ideas of Russian diplomat Kirill Dmitriev and compiled by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, who added in some American proposals.
Russia in the New Syria: From Indispensable Ally to Auxiliary Partner – Riddle Russia
The Syrian president’s visit to Washington on November 9 underscored a stark reality: the emerging shift in Moscow-Damascus relations makes it impossible for Russia to effortlessly reclaim the dominant position it once enjoyed in the country. The era of Bashar al-Assad, when Moscow was the regime’s indispensable ally, is irrevocably over. From now on, the Kremlin will have to operate in Syria amid fierce competition from both regional and global players.
Witnesses of Chaos – Riddle Russia
Russia’s foreign policy is most often explained through the lens of multipolarity—a term that features in nearly every official statement as the vision of a desired global order. In the Russian interpretation, multipolarity is the conviction that political agency must inevitably be distributed fairly among the major centers of power, reflecting their actual economic and military weight in a world that has moved beyond unipolar dominance.
Support, tolerate, reject: The Russian response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan
Commentary 24 November 2025 4 minute read To read the commentary in Western capitals, one might think President Donald Trump’s leaked plan to end the war in Ukraine was Russia’s dream document. The plan is likely based on the ideas of Russian diplomat Kirill Dmitriev and compiled by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who added in some American proposals. Even secretary of state Marco Rubio told US senators it is Moscow’s “wish list”.
A Preview of the Caucasus to Come – Riddle Russia
Roman Chernikov on how the interests of Moscow and Washington unexpectedly converged on the Caucasian rails — and why this doesn’t make life any easier for Yerevan Читать на русском Recent developments in Armenia and Azerbaijan point to one conclusion: a new reality has taken shape in the region, and it is already producing tangible results. For ordinary people, the relative absence of news about border fatalities has become background noise—one quickly grows accustomed to it.
Chronicle of a Deal Missed – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on what Trump wanted from the Kremlin, what Moscow offered in return—and why a year of the most intense Russia-U.S. talks in decades ended back at square one Читать на русском For nearly a year now, Russian diplomacy has been holding its breath for a breakthrough in relations with the United States, betting that Donald Trump’s second term might still prove a boon for Moscow.
How Europe Can Outlast Russia’s War of Attrition
As Moscow banks on Europe’s fatigue and Washington’s hesitation, the EU’s best strategy is endurance – committing to a five-year plan that can outlast Putin’s war of attrition. From ECFR. The “will they, won’t they” drama over a U.S.-Russia deal on Ukraine has been this year’s political soap opera.
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
All newsletter options Sign up for ECFR’s newsletters, updates, and mailings and dive into the most pressing foreign policy issues with insights from our experts, programmes, and offices: Flagship newsletter | Our weekly round-up on ECFR's publications, podcasts, events, jobs, and media coverage delivered straight to your inbox every Friday morning. Media sign up | Receive our press releases, media notes, and tip sheets on research and events covering top foreign policy issues.
Enemy number one: What Putin’s foreign policy speech says about Europe
All newsletter options Sign up for ECFR’s newsletters, updates, and mailings and dive into the most pressing foreign policy issues with insights from our experts, programmes, and offices: Flagship newsletter | Our weekly round-up on ECFR's publications, podcasts, events, jobs, and media coverage delivered straight to your inbox every Friday morning. Media sign up | Receive our press releases, media notes, and tip sheets on research and events covering top foreign policy issues.
By flattering Ukraine, Trump announces his departure from the peace process
This week, US president Donald Trump unexpectedly praised Ukraine's war effort and even stated that Zelensky might be able to restore his country's full borders. The statement also came with insults to Putin's army and economy. Political analyst Anton Barbashin argues that while this sounds like an explicit endorsement of Ukraine, it is in fact an announcement of Trump's departure from the peace process.
Libyan «Mine» Under the «African Corps» Project – Riddle Russia
Platon Nikiforov on how the Kremlin found itself in new foreign policy constraints due to further manifestations of nepotism among its Libyan ally Читать на русском Since mid-May, Tripoli, the capital of western Libya, has become a battleground for various factions supporting the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) led by Abdel Hamid Dbeibah. Paradoxically, the crisis was triggered by the prime minister’s attempt to consolidate power, a move urged by international actors.
Russia-China Arctic Cooperation Balancing – Riddle Russia
The relationship between Russia and China in the Arctic is a component of the broader cooperation that has developed in recent years. Although their views and interests do not always align in the High North, the need for cooperation to achieve mutual benefits encourages them to manage their differences.
After the Memorandum – Riddle Russia
On May 19, 2025, the presidents of Russia and the United States held their third phone call since the start of Trump’s second term. The global community expected Trump to take a clear stance on a ceasefire in Ukraine, especially after his calls for an immediate truce and ultimatums from European leaders, which were seemingly ignored by Moscow and Washington.
Trump's 100 days: negotiations without peace
Although the Russian-American negotiations could be framed as an attempt to ‘reset’ bilateral relations, there is no real progress in resolving the war. Ukraine still finds itself in a precarious position. Without drastic changes in Washington’s approach or a significant increase in European aid, Kyiv’s prospects remain grim, and Moscow’s window of opportunity stays open. An analysis for RAAM by political analyst Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Riddle.
The Riddle of Lend-Lease for Ukraine – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on how a symbolic law failed to become real weaponry Читать на русском In early 2022, amid the growing threat of full-scale war in Europe, the United States began developing legislative measures to expedite and increase military aid to Ukraine. One of the key initiatives was the revival of the Lend-Lease program, a World War II mechanism that supported allies.
Fiasko rozmów pokojowych. Dla Donalda Trumpa nie będzie to osobista porażka. Musi tylko znaleźć kozła ofiarnego
Minęły trzy miesiące od powrotu Donalda Trumpa do Białego Domu, a w Ukrainie nie nastąpił żaden przełom w kierunku pokoju. Rozmowy między Waszyngtonem a Moskwą skupiły się niemal wyłącznie na naprawianiu stosunków dwustronnych, podczas gdy próby zapewnienia choćby ograniczonego zawieszenia broni — czy to na Morzu Czarnym, czy wokół infrastruktury energetycznej — spełzły na niczym.
Escalating Air War: Drone and Missile Strikes in the Russia-Ukraine War – Riddle Russia
Russia and Ukraine have been fighting a widening campaign of air raids, using drones and missiles to target military and dual-use infrastructure. The air war has only intensified in the last few months. Both Russia and Ukraine are quantitatively increasing the tempo and breadth of strikes using drones and missiles. The mass adoption of one-way attack drones has been the primary facilitator of the current trend of larger and more frequent strikes.
The Art of Containing Escalation – Riddle Russia
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the world has repeatedly teetered on the brink of a highly dangerous escalation, one that could potentially involve the use of nuclear weapons. The primary factor preventing this scenario from unfolding has been the preservation of direct communication channels between Moscow and Washington. Additionally, unspoken self-restraints on both sides have played a moderating role.
Geopolitical Pivot: Why Russia Is More Dangerous Than China – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on why Russia today poses a greater threat to the world order than China Читать на русском In just the first few weeks of 2025, the familiar picture of the world vanished as swiftly and irrevocably as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who until recently had been its guarantors.
No adult in the room: How Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reshaping global affairs
RU Trump's “America First” doctrine is crucial to his stance on global affairs and geopolitical strategy. Observers in North America and Europe have noted his hostility against alliances and multilateral cooperation, as well as his skepticism regarding traditional allies of the United States. His 2017 criticism of NATO — calling it “obsolete” — and the 2024 rumors about his desire to withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic bloc underscore the position.
New Bundestag: Support for Ukraine and a Tough Line Against Russia – Riddle Russia
Early parliamentary elections have concluded in Germany. As expected, though not overwhelmingly, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged victorious. The new Bundestag of the 21st convocation will include four other parties: the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Left Party. It is already clear that the far-right and far-left flanks of German politics will not be part of the future government.
Uncertain Endgame: Ukraine’s Fate in Russia-US Talks – Riddle Russia
It is only natural that after Friday’s White House exchange between President Zelensky and senior US leadership, pessimism about the quality of the deal Ukraine might get as a result of Russia-US negotiations is running at unprecedented levels. News swirls about the Trump administration ending all support to Ukraine and commanding Pentagon Cyber Command to stop all operations aimed at assisting Ukraine’s war efforts.
Russian Rocket Theater – Riddle Russia
Vladimir Putin has turned experimental weapons into a key part of Russia’s deterrence and propaganda strategy, but the gap between rhetoric and reality reveals systemic challenges in engineering, scientific collaboration, and strategic credibility. Putin loves his weapons, and he loves even more talking about the latest developments in high profile televised events.
Transnistrian region and Abkhazia face an ‘energy winter’ – Riddle Russia
With the onset of winter, Moscow is flexing its energy muscles to score points in Georgia’s Abkhazia and Moldova’s Transnistrian region. It is difficult to exaggerate the dependence of these two separatist regions on Russian energy supplies. The Transnistrian energy region is almost exclusively dependent on the import of Russian natural gas transported via Ukraine.
Breaking Bad: What Drives the Georgian Dream Party – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania explains how the actions of the Georgian Dream party go beyond the geopolitical choice between the West and Russia, deepening Georgia’s internal crisis and international isolation Читать на русском The of Georgia’s parliamentary elections, which gave the ruling Georgian Dream party 54% of the vote, have been rejected by the Georgian opposition and President Salome Zurabishvili.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
As soon as president Biden authorised Ukraine to use ATACM's on Russian territory, the country purposeful crossed a new 'red line' of Putin by attacking military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk region. Putin responded by firing the (not so) new ICBM Oreshnik (Hazel) to Dnipro. It can (but did not) carry nuclear warheads. On the same day, Putin signed a new nuclear doctrine, lowering the nuclear threshold. Will Russia start a nuclear war? No, says Anton Barbashin of Riddle Russia.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? – Riddle Russia
Just two months before the end of his presidential term, Joe Biden greenlit Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles for striking deep into Russian territory. The range of these missiles is about 300 km. It is highly likely that Washington will closely monitor how Kyiv will use these missiles; ATACMS will most likely be used only in the Kursk Oblast, part of which is under Ukrainian control, and where the Russian army is conducting a counteroffensive involving troops from North Korea.
March Mertz? - Riddle Russia
At the beginning of November, one of the most atypical coalitions in German history came to an end. For three years, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP had been trying to get along in one government. But Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his main rival for the ruling majority, FDP finance minister Christian Lindner. The resignation of almost all other liberal ministers paved the way for early general elections to be held on 23 February 2025.
Caught Between Moscow and the West: Armenia’s Precarious Diversification – Riddle Russia
Armenia and Russia have shared a close, complex relationship for decades, with Russia serving as Armenia’s main security and economic partner. But, recent events—particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and renewed tensions in the South Caucasus—are straining this relationship. As Moscow’s attention has moved towards Ukraine, its influence in the region has weakened, and Armenia has started to feel the effects.
Putin vs. Trump: Round 2 – Riddle Russia
Donald Trump will become the 47th President of the United States in January. His victory has predictably plunged the Euro-Atlantic region into a state of alarm. Of course, both the EU and Ukraine were preparing for Trump’s possible victory, but they were hoping for Kamala Harris to come to power, who would at least not reduce the support Ukraine received under Joe Biden.
How Moscow sees the future of BRICS after the Kazan Summit – Riddle Russia
The latest BRICS summit — held in Kazan on October 22−24 — has gained far more media attention than previous iterations. That has less to do with any substantive agreements brokered between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa than it does to the summit’s taking place in a Russia otherwise isolated by war and sanctions. Assessments of the summit from across the international community varied widely.
Flashes of West-Russia rivalry in Moldova, Georgia elections – Riddle Russia
This autumn sees geopolitically significant elections held in Moldova and Georgia, two EU candidate countries. The results offer major strategic implications for Brussels and Moscow. The EU has expressed political support for the re-election of current President Maia Sandu.
Rusia está en guerra, y todas las herramientas valen
Para el aparato de seguridad ruso, Rusia está en guerra. Esta es una guerra por la supervivencia y puede usarse cualquier herramienta. Esta guerra no sólo se limita al campo de batalla de Ucrania, también se libra en Medio Oriente, en África y Asia y, por supuesto, contra Occidente.
Russia’s Vital (and Fragile) New Trade Artery To Iran – Riddle Russia
After the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing Western sanctions, Moscow considers the launch of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and connections with its trade partners in East Asia and the Middle East, a strategic goal. Securing transport routes that bypass Western-allied countries is vital for Moscow.
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