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Articles by Anton Tonev
Understanding Uncertainty In The Next Chapter For The Middle Kingdom
The downside of China's economic model is the striving for ultimate control of economic and political outcomes in a world that is becoming increasingly complex and uncertain. The author of this article examines prospects for the country's economy, and its financial markets. It can often be the case that the performance of financial markets and the “underlying” economy appear unrelated at times, like a conjuring trick.
Understanding Uncertainty in the Next Chapter for the Middle Kingdom
Submitted by on 29 October 2024 If investors had been investing in Chinese equities based on ‘fundamentals’, they would have been out of business a long time ago. While they say the stock market is not the economy, this is especially true for the Chinese stock market. Take the MSCI China Index in USD compared to China’s GDP in USD: since 1992, the stock market is down 24%, while GDP is up +4,277%. Alternatively, take individual Chinese tech stocks and compare them to some US tech equivalents.
BoJ Versus MoF: Who Will Win Japan’s Monetary Tug-Of-War?
The exchange rate position of Japan's yen currency is becoming a serious challenge for policymakers in the Asian country. This article considers the pressures and differences between government and the central bank. The following commentary about a key macro-economic issue – the Japanese fiscal and monetary policy debate – comes from Anton Tonev, head of strategy, Trium Larissa Global Macro, a family office-backed fund. The editors are pleased to add these insights, and welcome debate.
Japanese Central Bank Vs Government - Who Wins Japan's Monetary Tussle?
The exchange rate position of Japan's yen currency is becoming a serious challenge for policymakers in the Asian country. This article considers the pressures and differences between government and the central bank. The following commentary about a key macroeconomic issue – concerning the Japanese fiscal and monetary policy debate – comes from Anton Tonev, head of strategy, Trium Larissa Global Macro, a family office-backed fund. The editors are pleased to add these insights, and welcome debate.
Japanese Central Bank Vs Government – Who Wins Japan's Monetary Tussle?
The exchange rate position of Japan's yen currency is becoming a serious challenge for policymakers in the Asian country. This article considers the pressures and differences between government and the central bank.    The following commentary about a key macroeconomic issue – concerning the Japanese fiscal and monetary policy debate – comes from Anton Tonev, head of strategy, Trium Larissa Global Macro, a family office-backed fund.
Opinion: Will AI usher in real estate's "Model T" moment?
It’s not often that we can draw a parallel between the automobile industry and the mortgage and real estate industries. And yet, our space may be on the verge of its own “Model T” moment. The Model T, you’ll recall, represented the first successful dive into mass production and assembly. Ford’s game-changing assembly-line approach turned the automotive industry (really, every industry) on its head.
Opinion: More can be done to shorten the average time to close
Seemingly forever, the average time between reaching a sales agreement and closing on that property has — a month and a half. It’s not something consumers think about much when they set out to buy a first home or plan to “upsize” to accommodate life changes. Instead, they think about finding a home in a great neighborhood or perhaps in a good school district. They dream about having an extra bedroom or glam bath—maybe a finished basement or proximity to work.
Five macro views on five regions: what will the elections mean for investors?
More than two billion voters will go to the polls this year, in what has been described as one of the most important election years in human history. Countries representing about half of global GDP are holding elections this year, headlined by economic powerhouse the United States and the world's most populous country, India. Below, five market commentators consider the implications of these major elections this year.
Opinion: More should be done to shorten the average time to close
Seemingly forever, the average time between reaching a sales agreement and closing on that property has hovered around 45 days — a month and a half. It’s not something consumers think about much when they set out to buy a first home or plan to upsize to accommodate life changes.
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