Ashley R. Schwarzer

Abstract As cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India dwindle, there is motivation to monitor elimination progress on a finer geographic scale than sub-district (block). Low-incidence projections across geographically- and demographically- heterogeneous communities are difficult to act upon, and equitable elimination cannot be achieved if local pockets of incidence are overlooked.

Estimation of flea densities required for enzootic and epizootic transmission dynamics The basic reproduction number (R0) is defined as the number of secondary cases that ensue from a single case in a naïve population. We used the next-generation matrix method [42] on our SEIR model to estimate R0 values for the various scenarios and to estimate the flea density per host (m) that would be required to sustain an enzootic or epizootic state (defined here as R0 = 1 and R0 = 2, respectively).