Ata Mohamed Tabriz

Khamenei’s absence from public view has not stopped competing factions from claiming his backing. Written messages attributed to him, some open to competing interpretations, have provided material for both advocates and opponents of negotiations. But the competition to define what the supreme leader wants is not necessarily an equal one. In wartime, military and security institutions have greater power than advocates of compromise to turn their interpretation of his wishes into action.

Reports of gasoline shortages spread across Tehran on Monday, with filling stations closing after running out of fuel and motorists describing long searches and queues for increasingly scarce supplies. Images, videos and accounts posted widely on Persian-language social media showed closed stations and lines of cars at others still operating, with shortages reported in several parts of the capital, including central and northern Tehran.

Nine in 10 respondents to an Iran International Instagram poll said they did not want to marry or have children under Iran’s economic, social and political conditions, according to results gathered from about 100,000 participants. More than 12,000 people also commented on the poll, with financial pressure, job insecurity, housing costs and concerns about children’s futures emerging repeatedly among the reasons given for putting off marriage or parenthood.