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Barry Jones

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Articles

New Modelling Technique Suggests Inflation Could Go Well Beyond 5 per cent in Early 2027

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By Huw Dixon, Jane M. Binner, BArry Jones, Barry Jones, Jon Tepper
| National Institute of Economic and Social Research
In this blog, we use our Multi-Recurrent Neural Network(MRN) model to provide forecasts for CPI inflation over the next year. We last used these models to produce a forecast for CPI inflation in February, ie, before the war in Iran started. In that blog, which can be found here, our models suggested that inflation would fall sharply in April before picking up to between 3.2 and 4.2 per cent by the end of the year. In this month’s update, we are trying something slightly new.
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Latest MRN Forecasts Point to Higher Than Expected Inflation for the Second Half of 2026

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By Huw Dixon, Jane M. Binner, BArry Jones, Barry Jones
| National Institute of Economic and Social Research
In this month’s update, we are trying something slightly new. We are taking the “simple” MRN (based on the CPI data alone), and adding one variable to it: the updated Divisia Price Dual (DPD). In addition, since the Divisia Dual is a cost-based index, we also include the simple MRN with the addition of the MPC rate. The DPD is produced by Barry Jones, as described in our previous blogs (see Binner et al 2025 for a detailed description) and is now complete up to and including December 2025.
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Broad Divisia Money, Supply Pressures, and U.S. Inflation Following the COVID-19 Recession

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By Michael Bordo, John V. Duca, BArry Jones, Barry Jones
| National Bureau of Economic Research
Skip to main content The views expressed are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. We thank two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We thank participants from sessions at the Eastern Economic Association’s 2025 Annual Conference and at the 29th (2025) International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance for helpful comments.
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