Barry K. Goodwin

Key Points In 2026, most of the roughly $55 billion in federal subsidy payments to the farm sector will flow to about 150,000 of the largest farm operations. In addition to a generous array of mandatory farm-support programs, the federal government provides supplementary ad hoc payments typically authorized under “disaster aid” rationales. Ad hoc farm subsidy payments have a long history, but during the first Trump administration, these payments surged to over $40 billion in 2020 before falling.

Mergers and acquisitions in agricultural input industries have led to high levels of concentration such that a small number of firms account for most sales. We examine the concentration in seed, fertilizer, and livestock markets. Policymakers have raised concerns that such concentration may worsen consumers’ and farmers’ welfare. Agricultural market concentration might increase market power, but it might also result from economies of scale, in which case aggregate welfare may improve.

Conflicts of Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Data Availability Statement The cover crop data used in this study are derived from the Operational Tillage Information System (OpTIS) dataset developed by Regrow Ag. The data are proprietary and cannot be publicly shared due to licensing restrictions. Researchers interested in accessing OpTIS data should contact Regrow Ag (https://www.regrow.ag) for data access and use agreements.