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A Semiparametric Panel Generalized Additive Model for Forecasting GDP Growth and Inflation in African Economies

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By Retius Chifurira, Temesgen Zewotir, Ben Magabashele Malope
| preprints.org
You are already at the latest version Macroeconomic relationships in African economies are often nonlinear and heterogeneous, limiting the adequacy of conventional linear models for analysing and forecasting GDP growth and inflation. This study applies a semiparametric Panel Generalized Additive Model (Panel GAM) to quarterly panel data for 53 African economies over 2005Q1–2025Q4, estimating smooth nonlinear effects while accounting for temporal variation and country-specific heterogeneity.
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