Ben Winkley
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Observing only, no longer engaging. Posting regularly on BlueSky bsky.app/profile/benwinkley.bsky.social
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Articles by Ben Winkley
I mercati sempre più sensibili alle interruzioni: Glencore
London, 5 August (Argus) — Energy markets are increasingly sensitive to disruptions because of the significant inventory drawdowns in the first half of this year, trading firm Glencore said today. Reporting its results for the January-June period, Glencore said the volatility was such that it waived its $200mn value-at-risk (VaR) limit for a period between March and May.
Iran says suspends military operation against Israel
London, 8 June (Argus) — Iran has suspended its attacks on Israel, state media said today citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC said it has suspended military operations that saw ballistic missiles fired at targets in northern Israel. This was Iran’s first attack on Israel since 8 April, and promoted retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on what it said were military targets in western and central Iran.
Adnoc CEO sees long road back from war disruption
London, 20 May (Argus) — The disruptions to energy supplies caused by the US-Israel war with Iran may not fully resolve until the middle of 2027, even if the conflict ends soon, Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc’s chief executive Sultan al-Jaber has said. “Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80pc of pre-conflict flows and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” al-Jaber told an Atlantic Council event.
Iran fires on container ships in Hormuz: Update
Singapore, 22 April (Argus) — Iranian forces fired on a container ship in the strait of Hormuz today, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), hours after the US extended its ceasefire with Tehran. UKMTO, citing the container ship’s master, said the vessel was approached 15 nautical miles, or 28km, northeast of Oman by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboat that opened fire with no warning. The attack “caused heavy damage to the bridge” but no injuries, UKMTO said.
EU foreign ministers to discuss Hormuz options: Update
London, 16 March (Argus) — EU foreign ministers will today discuss ways of keeping the strait of Hormuz open, although there appear to be no positive responses to US president Donald Trump’s plea for naval help. “The main topic [of today’s meeting] will be how to keep the strait of Hormuz open,” EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said.
G7 says ready to release stocks if necessary
London, 9 March (Argus) — The G7 today made no immediate plan to release oil from strategic reserves in response to the disruptions caused by the US-Iran war.
E3 to reinstate nuclear sanctions against Iran
London, 28 August (Argus) — The E3 group of European nations has given notice that they will reinstate sanctions against Iran for what they deem non-compliance with its nuclear obligations. The group — France, Germany and the UK — said today the sanctions will be re-established in 30 days under a ‘snapback’ mechanism. During this time the E3 will continue to pursue diplomatic means to resolve the issue, seeking “serious diplomatic efforts” by Tehran.
Ukraine, US Sign Reconstruction Deal
Ukraine, US Sign Reconstruction Deal By Ben Winkley, John Gawthrop and James Keates May 1, 2025 - The government of Ukraine has agreed a "reconstruction" deal with the US that will establish a fund to be filled with proceeds from new mineral extraction licenses. There are few firm details about how much money will be involved, or how any future extraction contracts will be structured.
Maurel and Prom to resume operations in Venezuela
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 08 November 2023 France-based upstream oil and gas producer Maurel and Prom said today it will resume operations in Venezuela, after the US lifted sanctions on the south American country's hydrocarbons sector.
Saudi, Russia confirm additional oil cuts to year-end
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 05 November 2023 Saudi Arabia and Russia today confirmed they would each extend their respective additional oil production and supply cuts to the end of this year, as widely flagged. The Saudi energy ministry said the extension of its 1mn b/d production cut into a fifth month will mean the country's crude output will again be around 9mn b/d in December.
Norway must prepare for end of oil, gas: Climate body
Norway's climate change committee said today the government should begin to prepare for "the final phase of Norwegian petroleum activities", and recommended a number of far-reaching measures including an immediate halt to exploration and extraction permitting.
IEA cuts 2024 demand growth forecast
The IEA today cuts its oil demand growth forecast for 2024, saying it sees evidence of demand destruction after the rise in global prices that ran throughout September. In its Oil Market Report (OMR) the Paris-based agency put 2024 demand growth at 880,000 b/d compared with 990,000 b/d in its previous OMR. For this year the IEA raised its demand growth forecast slightly to 2.3mn b/d from 2.2mn b/d, citing "buoyant" results from major demand centres China, India and Brazil.
Opec supply management will have consequences: India
India's oil minister today said Opec+ "supply-side management" will have consequences for demand, because the global economy is not in a position to shoulder high prices. Speaking to Argus in Abu Dhabi, Hardeep Singh Puri dismissed the argument made by, among others, Opec heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE that higher prices are needed to stimulate the investment necessary to counter supply decline. "When you take off 5.2mn b/d [from the market], it is not due to lack of investment," he said.
Equinor flags big cost increase at Johan Castberg
Norway's state-controlled Equinor said today that costs have ballooned at the Johan Castberg oil project in the Barents Sea, but it said it still plans for production to begin there in the fourth quarter of 2024. The investment cost has increased by 13bn Norwegian kroner ($1.2bn) since last year, Equinor said, putting the estimated final cost at NKr80bn. The development, which contains up to 650mn bl of recoverable oil, was estimated to cost NKr57bn when the plan was submitted in 2017.
Saudi Arabia extends 1mn b/d crude cut into Sep: Update
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 03 August 2023 Adds Russian export plan for September Saudi Arabia said today it will extend its unilateral 1mn b/d voluntary crude production cut, first announced for July, for another month into September. But the effect of this may be muted by a new export cut level announced for that month by Russia.
Woodside delays Senegal’s Sangomar oil project: Update
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 18 July 2023 Adds Capricorn Energy exposure to delay in final paragraph Independent Australian producer Woodside Energy has delayed the start-up of its 82pc-owned 100,000 b/d Sangomar offshore oil project in Senegal to mid-2024 because of some remedial work. Woodside was previously targeting first oil from the project by the end of 2023, which was also delayed from early 2023 and an initial target of 2022.
Shell CEO under fire from UN climate change body
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 06 July 2023 Shell's chief executive Wael Sawan came under fire today from the head of the UN's climate change body for comments made about fossil fuel production.
DNO, Genel cutting spending in northern Iraq
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 11 May 2023 The effects of the dispute curtailing crude output from northern Iraq is hitting the companies that operate there, with upstream independents DNO and Genel Energy today saying they will pare back investments until the situation is resolved.
DNO shuts KRG crude fields after export halt: Update
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 29 March 2023 Adds Genel status in paragraph 7 Norway-based DNO said today it was shutting down its oil fields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, four days after Turkey halted crude exports through the pipeline that runs to the port of Ceyhan.
OECD raises growth forecast, says recovery fragile
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 17 March 2023 The OECD today raised its forecasts for economic growth this year and in 2024, but cautioned of a fragile, moderate recovery with risks skewed to the downside. In its Economic Outlook published today, the OECD projects global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6pc this year and 2.9pc in 2024, both upwards revisions from the respective 2.2pc and 2.7pc forecasts it made in November.
Global oil stocks at 18-month high: IEA
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 15 March 2023 Global oil stocks have built to their highest level in 18 months, the IEA said today, which could provide a buffer later in the year when supplies will be "nowhere close" to matching demand. The IEA's monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) said global inventories rose by 52.9mn bl in January to 7.8bn bl, the highest since September 2021.
EU to end Covid test requirement for China arrivals
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 17 February 2023 The EU has agreed to phase out Covid-19 testing for people arriving from China. The bloc's presidency said the requirement for a negative pre-departure test will be phased out by the end of February, and random testing on arrival will end by the middle of March.
IEA upgrades supply, demand forecasts for 2023
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 15 February 2023 The IEA today upgraded its forecasts for oil supply and demand by 200,000 b/d each for 2023, leaving its overall projected balances unchanged for the year. It said China will "resume its established role as the primary engine of world oil demand growth" this year, while anticipating jet fuel use recovering to around 90pc of pre-Covid-19 pandemic 2019 levels.
Record oil supply will not meet demand in 2023: IEA
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 18 January 2023 Record oil supply this year will not meet demand, with a gradual shift in the balance leading to a notable shortfall in availability by the end of 2023, according to the IEA today.
HSBC to stop funding for new oil and gas fields
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 14 December 2022 UK-based bank HSBC said today it will stop providing finance for new oil and gas fields and will subject prospective clients in the sector to criteria around exploration and production and the energy transition.
IEA surprised by oil demand upside in growth revision
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 14 December 2022 The IEA said it has been surprised by recent resilient oil consumption data, revising higher its forecasts for demand growth this and next year. But it said the oil market is heading into a period of significant uncertainty at a time of low global stocks, raising the possibility of a price rally.
IEA says Opec+ move disruptive, slashes demand outlook
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 13 October 2022 The IEA today labelled the Opec+ group's recent decision to cut its supply quotas as a "disruptive market force", and said this, along with a "relentless deterioration" in the economy, are behind sharp downgrades to its forecasts for demand oil growth.
Shell's Sawan to replace van Beurden as CEO: Update
Updates throughout Shell said its next chief executive will be Wael Sawan, head of its renewables and gas business, who will replace incumbent Ben van Beurden at the start of next year. Sawan will take over on 1 January 2023, ending van Beurden's nine-year stint at the helm. Van Beurden will act in an advisory capacity to his replacement for six months and then leave the company for which he has worked since 1983.
IEA sees global oil demand growth at halt in 4Q
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 14 September 2022 The IEA today said global oil demand growth will come to a halt in the final three months of this year, and with supply outpacing demand into the second quarter of 2023 there should be a "much needed" build in stocks. In its new Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based institution said demand growth is being stymied by Covid-19 lockdowns in China and slowing OECD economies.
Europeans have 'serious doubts' on Iran nuclear deal
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 11 September 2022 The European participants in the Iran nuclear talks have "serious doubts" about Tehran's commitment to reaching a successful outcome, placing a question mark against a return of Iranian crude to the open market.
IEA raises 2022 demand forecast on gas-to-oil switching
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 11 August 2022 The IEA has made a sharp upwards revision to its forecast for oil demand growth this year, with higher gas prices prompting widespread switching to oil burn for power generation. In its monthly Oil Market Report the Paris-based group pegged demand growth in 2022 at 2.1mn b/d, up by 380,000 b/d from its estimate in June.
Lamprell agrees shareholder-led takeover
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 21 July 2022 UK-listed oil service firm Lamprell has agreed a takeover led by two of its largest shareholders that will potentially lead to a restructuring.
EU cuts 2023 GDP estimate, says on path of lower growth
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 14 July 2022 The European Commission today cut its forecast for EU economic growth in 2023, saying the war in Ukraine has put the bloc on a path of lower growth and higher inflation rates. "The shocks unleashed by the war are hitting the EU economy both directly and indirectly," the commission said.
EU sees growth forecasts cut on high energy prices
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 11 July 2022 The European Commission is likely this week to cut its economic growth forecasts for this year and 2023, with the effects of high energy prices being felt throughout the fiscal system, the bloc's trade commissioner said today.
UK retail road fuel sector to face competition review
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 08 July 2022 The UK's retail road fuel sector will face an in-depth competition review after an initial inquiry found some areas of concern. But competition authority CMA said the government's cut to road fuel duty has, mostly, been implemented and said market fundamentals played the majority role in recent price rises.
UK prime minister Boris Johnson resigns
An error has occured. The article you are searching for was not found. Published date: 07 July 2022 UK prime minister Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the ruling Conservative Party today, succumbing to a huge revolt against him from his own members of parliament (MPs). Johnson said he will stay in post as prime minister until a successor is chosen, and that a timetable for this will be announced next week.
Argus Media : Houthis claim UAE attack, Abu Dhabi pledges retaliation
Updates throughout with Houthi statement, UAE reponse Houthi militants in Yemen said they carried out an attack today on a UAE oil facility in which three people died. The UAE government said it could respond, raising the risk profile in the region. The militant group said it fired five missiles and a "large number of drones".
Crude, shares hit by new Covid-19 variant: Update
Updates throughout Crude prices and shares in oil-exposed European companies have fallen sharply today as governments react to a new Covid-19 variant by introducing a number of new travel restrictions including flight bans. The Ice front-month Brent contract was down by around $4.80/bl, or 5.8pc, at $77.55/bl as of 11:00 GMT, below which it has not closed in more than two months.
Published date: 24 March 2021 Adds details throughout Transit through the Suez Canal has been blocked after a container ship ran aground in the canal's northbound lane yesterday, halting movements of at least 7.5mn bl of crude. The container vessel Ever Given ran aground at 7.40am local time (05:40 GMT) yesterday because of a dust storm and high winds, the Suez Canal Authority said. Efforts are underway using tugs to refloat the ship, which was heading from China to Rotterdam.
unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences is that actions have unanticipated outcomes. A theory developed from the meeting of philosophy and economics during the Enlightenment, it applies to decisions made by individuals — and doubly for those made by legislation. A modern case in point is the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) cap on sulphur emissions from shipping, which comes into force on the first day of 2020.
a-tale-of-two-deltas
In the delta, it is the best of times and it is the worst of times. Which time it is depends on which delta you can see. The best times are in the Mississippi delta, where business is booming. The rise in US exports has been swift since the US lifted 40-year-old restrictions on most crude exports in December 2015, and there is more to come. The worst times are in the Niger delta, where there may be a feeling of deja vu.
Taking back control
Opec used the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting in Jeddah today to make a few things clear. It took back control, in the parlance of our time, of the message. An observer this week may have been misled into thinking that Opec’s work was done. Various reports suggested the organisation’s attention was drifting away from the business of rebalancing the market and onto the bounteous rewards that come with higher prices.
Varo’s IPO provides no pointers
Varo Energy’s plan to partially list on the Amsterdam stock exchange is an interesting marker for how far the European refining industry has come in the six years since Swiss refiner Petroplus filed for bankruptcy. But not too much should be read into it. Varo, which is owned by trading firm Vitol and a brace of private equity groups, took its first steps with the purchase of the 68,000 b/d Cressier plant in Switzerland from the ashes of Petroplus.
Boom time for scenarios
Any oil-related news must strain to be heard above the tumult of IP Week. It is a distracting few days of networking, back-slapping and conspicuous entertainment. BP’s Energy Outlook rose above the hubbub.Its headline — global demand for liquid fuels will plateau within 15 years — ensured a place on the front pages. Liquids consumption in the transport sector is replaced as the main source of demand growth after 2030 by non-combusted uses, as uptake of electric vehicles (EV) gains momentum.
Waiting for Sverdrup
Whichever way you slice it, the giant Johan Sverdrup field in the Norwegian North Sea is proving a major success for its operator, state-controlled Statoil. The firm now expects the project’s 440,000 b/d first phase to cost 28pc less than it estimated when phase 1 was approved in 2015. The field’s recoverable resources are now pegged at 2.1bn-3.1bn bl of oil equivalent (boe), up from previous guidance of 2bn-3bn boe and initial guidance of 1.7bn-3bn boe. And best of all, the costs are down.
The ghost of Chinguetti
Whatever your take was on the recent paper on peak oil demand and long-run oil prices, co-authored by BP chief economist Spencer Dale and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies director Bassam Fattouh, it was hard to find fault with this line: [If] no new investments are made and existing levels of production decline at a rate of 3pc/yr… this implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles.
Is complacency priced in?
There is a very strong possibility that tomorrow the basket price of Opec crude will start with a six for the first time since late June 2015. Ice Brent front-month futures have been sixed-up for a few days now. Quite the fillip ahead of the group’s meeting at the end of this month, when the key – perhaps the only – point of discussion will be how to keep a good thing going.
Narrative twist | Argus Blog - Argus Media
The narrative surrounding market rebalancing moves faster than the actual process of market rebalancing. Last week in Moscow Russian president Vladimir Putin posited that, should an agreement be reached to extend the Opec, non-Opec deal on production levels, then it should run until the end of 2018. There is a growing consensus that any decision cannot be made until nearer its expiry in March 2018. We’ll likely know more about timing after Opec’s end of November meeting in Vienna.
Argus Blog - Argus Media
The European Central Bank has signalled the end is nigh for its role as the stimulator of last resort. Seven years into ECB president Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” (more on that phrase later), and the eurozone economy is nearly deemed ready to stand unaided. You can see why. GDP growth is strong, employment is up, and the bloc’s manufacturing sector expanded in August at the fastest rate since 2011, and the OECD leading indicators for the region are satisfactory.
Mind your language
There has been an outbreak of unity within Opec, just when it needed it the most. With the parameters of the deal set out, a waiting game has begun. Will there be the large seasonal rise in consumption this quarter necessary for inventory rebalancing?
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