Bill Bonner
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Articles by Bill Bonner
What else could go wrong?
Violent protests in Paris, France. Source: Getty Images Another fun-filled, wacko week! Poor Katie, we hardly knew ye. CNBC: Katie Zacharia out as Trump’s White House press secretary The poor girl had barely finished stumbling through her first and last press conference when she was shown the door. Ms. Zacharia had just told us about Kimberly Guilfoyle’s fall from grace...and then, it was just a matter of hours before she joined Ms. Guilfoyle tumbling down with the MAGA outcasts.
De Mai 68 aux krachs boursiers : une même leçon
Les récentes manifestations en France réveillent le souvenir d’un Paris encore marqué par les révoltes étudiantes de Mai 68. Entre barricades, charges de police et coups de matraque, une leçon s’impose : face au chaos, le meilleur moyen de se protéger est parfois de ne pas se trouver au mauvais endroit, au mauvais moment.
C’est la lutte finale
But the recent news from France brought back memories! The wail of ambulances and police sirens. The acrid smell of burning rubber. The sight of mobs in the streets…and gendarmes teaching them a lesson. Smoke. Noise. The madness of crowds and the discreet charm of the bourgeoisie.
BPR Week in Review: How to escape the madness
Earnings season…a Fed meeting…and rumors of a blown up hedge fund. It promises to be another big week on Wall Street. Things are getting creepy. BPR’s paid subscribers should be sure to check out Investment Director Tom Dyson’s note earlier this week on closing out a trade (see below).
What the good life looks like
Dear Reader, In the 1990s, we bought a chateau in need of renovation in central France and decided to move the family there. I wanted to improve my French before we left, so I invited Jen Stevens, who was a young editor at International Living, to join me at the Maryland Club in Baltimore for lunch each Friday. We’d walk the few blocks from the office and spend an hour or so speaking French over a good meal... She recently described this experience to me as a “7 out of 10 on the terror scale”...
C’est la lutte finale
The trouble with growing old is this. As the years go by you pile up more and more bits of useful real-life experience and wisdom...but you can’t remember where you left them. But the recent news from France brought back memories! The wail of ambulances and police sirens. The acrid smell of burning rubber. The sight of mobs in the streets...and gendarmes teaching them a lesson. Smoke. Noise. The madness of crowds and the discreet charm of the bourgeoisie.
La grande erreur des démocraties occidentales
Des déficits qui explosent, des ménages qui s’appauvrissent et des gouvernements qui cherchent des ennemis à combattre… Derrière ces crises apparemment distinctes se cache, selon Bill Bonner, une même erreur que les dirigeants occidentaux refusent toujours de reconnaître. Les mauvaises nouvelles affluent de toutes parts. Et toutes semblent graviter autour d’un même tourbillon : celui d’un système financier nourri à la monnaie de singe.
Eye of the Storm
A whole flotilla of news bobs around a whirlpool of funny money finance. The Financial Times: Top economies heading for biggest budget deficits since Covid, IMF warns. At its annual meeting, the fund calls for ‘urgent’ action to rebuild public finances Newsweek adds the personal touch: Eight months into the war in Iran, the average American household is nearly $2,000 worse off, according to economist Mark Zandi. This adds a fresh economic pressure as the midterms approach. “Nearly $2,000.
Eye of the Storm
A whole flotilla of news bobs around a whirlpool of funny money finance. The Financial Times: Top economies heading for biggest budget deficits since Covid, IMF warns. At its annual meeting, the fund calls for ‘urgent’ action to rebuild public finances Newsweek adds the personal touch: Eight months into the war in Iran, the average American household is nearly $2,000 worse off, according to economist Mark Zandi. This adds a fresh economic pressure as the midterms approach. “Nearly $2,000.
France : les jeunes héritent de l’addition
Derrière la colère des étudiants français se cache une crise bien plus profonde. Pendant des décennies, les gouvernements ont multiplié les promesses en les finançant à crédit. Aujourd’hui, la facture arrive. Et ce sont les nouvelles générations qui risquent de devoir la payer. CNBC titre : « Les manifestations étudiantes s’intensifient en France, à l’approche de la bataille budgétaire. » Nous cherchons à comprendre ce qui alimente réellement le mécontentement des étudiants français.
Budget Battle Looms
Preleminary US budget deficit for 2026 was $1.99 trillion. Source: Congressional Budget Office [Click to open in a new window] CNBC: French student protests heat up as budget battle looms And the big one is there too — the much-discussed ‘decline of the West.’ What is the pattern that connects them? A high confidence hunch — it’s a web of money; we are all stuck in it. Few people don’t pay for their own children’s education…or for their own retirement or their own medical expenses.
Budget Battle Looms
Preleminary US budget deficit for 2026 was $1.99 trillion. Source: Congressional Budget Office CNBC: French student protests heat up as budget battle looms We are looking for the real cause of the students’ discontent. Not coincidentally, we find other dots in the same constellation...including the general discontent of their parents — and why they are turning against mainstream candidates.
France-États-Unis : deux puissances à crédit
La France et les États-Unis ont plus en commun qu’ils ne veulent l’admettre. Derrière les différences de mœurs, la même fuite dans la dette entretient un système qui promet toujours plus… et laisse de moins en moins de place aux nouveaux venus.
Those Not Chosen
Many years ago, an aspiring statesman from one of the hayseed states hoped to unseat his rival by reading aloud the menu from a French restaurant in Washington where the member of Congress was a frequent diner. “Les cuisses de grenoodles…or something like that…I’m talking about damned frog legs. He eats frog legs.
Seizing The Means Of Production
Growing demand for price controls signals a shift toward socialism in both the U.S. and France. When we left you last week, France was falling apart. At least, that is what the internet said...in tumbled the videos to prove it. CNN: The students have their grumbles — claiming that they don’t have very nice schools or enough top teachers. There is also an ‘immigration’ angle. The worst schools are in the worst areas...which is where the ‘immigrants’ live.
Those Not Chosen
Many years ago, an aspiring statesman from one of the hayseed states hoped to unseat his rival by reading aloud the menu from a French restaurant in Washington where the member of Congress was a frequent diner. “Les cuisses de grenoodles...or something like that...I’m talking about damned frog legs. He eats frog legs.
Socialisme : les États-Unis pourraient détrôner la France
Les Américains aiment railler l’étatisme français. Mais quand Washington vole au secours de Wall Street ou s’offre des participations dans les entreprises, leurs convictions libérales deviennent soudain beaucoup plus souples. La France semble partir à vau-l’eau. Du moins, à en croire Internet… Les vidéos se sont succédé pour le prouver. CNN : « Des manifestations massives. Des adolescents blessés. Les élèves français préviennent : ce n’est qu’un début.
Seizing the means of production
CNN: Massive demonstrations. Injured teenagers. French students say they’re just getting started. iHeart: Protests continue over school conditions in France CBSNews: Riot police clash with students in Paris protests In France, some public schools have been closed since Monday and won’t reopen until next week amid nationwide student and labor protests that have been raging for three weeks. Aiden Stretch reports from Paris.
Seizing the means of production
Image of the destroyed Key Bridge, taken from Sparrow’s Point in Baltimore. Source: Getty Images When we left you last week, France was falling apart. At least, that is what the internet said...in tumbled the videos to prove it. CNN: Massive demonstrations. Injured teenagers. French students say they’re just getting started.
Et si la France était un avertissement pour les États-Unis ?
Les investisseurs fuient la dette française mais célèbrent les records de Wall Street. Pourtant, les finances américaines n’ont rien d’exemplaire. Derrière cette confiance se cache une conviction fragile : le dollar permettra toujours d’échapper à l’addition. « Attendre des électeurs qu’ils innocentent le parti au pouvoir après avoir soigneusement examiné les origines du cycle du crédit, c’est se faire une idée bien trop optimiste de la nature humaine.
Funny Business - Fat Tail Daily
Expecting voters to exonerate the party in power through a considered examination of the origins of the credit cycle is an overly optimistic view of human nature. — Daniel Oliver We went out to investigate. And as we approached, we gradually made out a human-like shape…but of the science fiction genre. This was ‘The Thing from Another World’, we recalled it from one of our first and most horrifying trip to the movies, in the 1950s.
Funny Business
Bees in the hive. Source: Getty Images Expecting voters to exonerate the party in power through a considered examination of the origins of the credit cycle is an overly optimistic view of human nature. —Daniel Oliver Last night, after supper, we saw a dim glow against the garden wall, about as bright as a dozen fireflies. We went out to investigate. And as we approached, we gradually made out a human-like shape...but of the science fiction genre.
Trump crée la crise, puis facture le remède
Face à la flambée du gazole, Donald Trump promet de soulager les routiers et les agriculteurs. Mais les expédients de Washington laissent intactes les causes de leurs difficultés… et font passer la facture aux contribuables. « Tout cela n’est qu’un cirque. » — Tom Kloza, conseiller principal pour l’énergie chez Gulf Oil Ici en Irlande, le gazole coûte environ 9 dollars le gallon, soit près de 3,8 litres. Aux États-Unis, il ne coûte « que » 6,30 dollars.
More Red Dye - Fat Tail Daily
‘It’s all a circus.’ —Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor, Gulf Oil But in the news is a whole new category of public policy — solutions that don’t work to problems you shouldn’t have. Call it the ‘Red Dye’ cure. Diesel fuel is the blood of commerce. It keeps the trucks running and the shelves stocked. And with the mid-term elections only a month away, the party in power is desperate for a transfusion. To that end, it has drained the US oil reserve.
More Red Dye
‘It’s all a circus.’ —Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor, Gulf Oil Diesel fuel costs about $9 a gallon, here in Ireland. In the US, it’s only $6.30. But in the news is a whole new category of public policy — solutions that don’t work to problems you shouldn’t have. Call it the ‘Red Dye’ cure. Diesel fuel is the blood of commerce. It keeps the trucks running and the shelves stocked. And with the mid-term elections only a month away, the party in power is desperate for a transfusion.
Un parfum de Weimar à Washington
Washington compte sur la hausse des prix pour alléger sa dette. Mais lorsque les créanciers exigent des taux plus élevés, le calcul se retourne contre l’emprunteur. Jusqu’où les États-Unis pousseront-ils cette fuite en avant ? Willkommen, bienvenue, welcome… dans l’Amérique de Weimar. Voilà deux semaines que nous affrontons le grand dragon de l’inflation et de la déflation, tels saint Georges armé de sa lance.
Springtime for Flimflam
I used to have this girlfriend known as Elsie With whom I shared four sordid rooms in Chelsea She wasn’t what you’d call a blushing flower As a matter of fact, she rented by the hour The day she died the neighbors came to snicker: “Well, that’s what comes from too much pills and liquor” But when I saw her laid out like a queen She was the happiest corpse I’d ever seen — Cabaret For two weeks, we’ve been wrestling — like St. George armed with his lance — with the great inflation/deflation dragon.
Springtime for Flimflam
St George slays the dragon. Source: Getty Images I used to have this girlfriend known as Elsie With whom I shared four sordid rooms in Chelsea She wasn’t what you’d call a blushing flower As a matter of fact, she rented by the hour The day she died the neighbors came to snicker: “Well, that’s what comes from too much pills and liquor” But when I saw her laid out like a queen She was the happiest corpse I’d ever seen —Cabaret Willkommen, bienvenue, welcome...to Weimar, America.
Et si l’inflation ne pouvait plus sauver les États-Unis ?
Les États-Unis peuvent-ils vraiment laisser filer l’inflation pour alléger le poids de leur dette ? Pas si facilement. Dès que les marchés anticipent la hausse des prix, les taux grimpent, le coût de la dette s’alourdit et le mécanisme se retourne contre l’État. Mais en cherchant à contenir l’inflation, ils pourraient contribuer à précipiter le scénario que Washington cherche justement à éviter. Vous voulez savoir où se dirigent les États-Unis ? Vous voulez un aperçu de ce que l’avenir leur réserve ?
An End To US Debt
Want to know where the US is headed? Want a peek at the future? Here it is: more inflation. More than you expect. We depend on rising interest rates and the ‘bond vigilantes’ to ride herd on inflation. Instead, they will drive up the real costs of moderate inflation…leaving hyperinflation as the likely outcome. Our WWII debt was disarmed by inflation. Slow and steady, like termites eating through untreated wood, it cut about two-thirds of the real value of the debt by the 1970s. People hardly noticed.
La grande arnaque qui se retourne contre Washington
Pendant des décennies, les États ont compté sur l’inflation pour alléger le poids de leurs dettes. Mais avec des taux désormais élevés et des déficits qui continuent de se creuser, la vieille recette pourrait bien se retourner contre ceux qui l’utilisent. L’inflation est en train de retrouver ses lettres de noblesse. Autrefois, c’était le mal absolu. Un véritable méchant. Une escroquerie. Aujourd’hui, elle serait devenue le sauveur de la nation.
Swindling the Swindler
US government debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP. Source: Congressional Budget Office [Click to open in a new window] Dan Denning: From 1945 to 1980, real interest rates were negative about half the time in the US. That translated into a yearly reduction of debt-to-GDP levels by about 3-4%. The gross federal debt-to-GDP ratio in the US was 120% in 1946. Through ‘financial repression’ (negative real rates) that ratio dropped to 60% by 1956. The economy ran very hot.
Swindling the Swindler
US government debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP. Source: Congressional Budget Office Will wonders never cease! Inflation is being rehabilitated. It used to be a bad thing. A proper villain. A swindler. Now...it is the nation’s savior. Dan Denning: From 1945 to 1980, real interest rates were negative about half the time in the US. That translated into a yearly reduction of debt-to-GDP levels by about 3-4%. The gross federal debt-to-GDP ratio in the US was 120% in 1946.
Et si la Fed était en train d’aggraver le problème ?
Pendant des années, créer de la monnaie permettait de repousser le problème. Mais lorsque les taux montent, chaque nouveau dollar injecté dans l’économie entraîne une facture supplémentaire. À force de vouloir gonfler la dette pour éviter la crise, on risque surtout de l’accélérer. Le grand krach du marché obligataire — la plus importante histoire financière de ces six dernières années — se poursuit.
What were they thinking?
Source: Bloomberg [Click to open in a new window] The Wall Street Journal: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.304% Wednesday, its highest intraday level since May 2002, according to Tradeweb. Yields had slipped earlier, after the Commerce Department said that core PCE inflation rose by 3% over the 12 months ended in August, down from 3.3% a month earlier and milder than forecast.
BPR Week in Review: The ‘demon germ’ and stock market euphoria
Late in the history of the Soviet Empire, in a clandestine effort to destroy the entire civilian populations of the United States and its allies in Europe, it’s alleged scientists engineered a novel plague virus. Once deployed, the virus would wipe out everyone but leave the infrastructure of civilization intact. The mutant germ was based on the Yersinia Pestis bacterium which causes plague (there are three versions of plague: bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic). And the demon part?
What were they thinking?
PUBLISHING NOTE: Some readers report missing either Wednesday Market Notes from Tom Dyson or Friday Research Notes from Dan Denning. If so, please check the Promotions or Spam folders from your email provider and mark any email from BPR as ‘Not Spam.’ If the problem persists, email us at BPR@bonnerprivateresearch.com.
Ils ont promis des canons et du beurre, mais ils ont oublié l’addition
Les États-Unis semblent pris dans un engrenage dont il devient de plus en plus difficile de sortir. Alors que Washington continue de promettre davantage de dépenses militaires et sociales, une question s’impose : combien de temps encore le pays pourra-t-il repousser l’heure de vérité ? C’est l’histoire que raconteront économistes pour expliquer « ce qui a mal tourné ».
What Went Wrong - Fat Tail Daily
Democrats vs. Republicans…good guys vs. bad guys…red vs. blue…Iran vs. the US…Orioles vs. Yankees — if only it were so simple, with the sheep on one side and the wolves on the other! But it’s the deeper patterns that count. The Primary Trend…the rise and fall of empires…the Deep State…the debasement of the dollar…and the approaching senility of American democracy. As outlined in these posts, ‘western’ governments are becoming desperate.
What Went Wrong
This is the story that economic historians will tell…to explain ‘what went wrong.’ Democrats vs. Republicans...good guys vs. bad guys...red vs. blue...Iran vs. the US...Orioles vs. Yankees — if only it were so simple, with the sheep on one side and the wolves on the other! But it’s the deeper patterns that count. The Primary Trend...the rise and fall of empires...the Deep State...the debasement of the dollar...and the approaching senility of American democracy.
Le marché obligataire vient de changer la donne
Depuis 2020, les taux remontent et les investisseurs obligataires réclament de nouveau une vraie rémunération pour leur argent. Les gouvernements peuvent toujours tenter de gonfler la dette pour en réduire le poids… mais le marché, lui, commence à présenter la facture. Le sujet le plus important que nous suivons cette semaine n’est pas nouveau ; nous le suivons depuis 2020.
The Bloated Cow - Fat Tail Daily
The most important story we’re following this week is one we’ve been tracking since 2020. Back then, it was just a high-confidence hunch — that the 40-year Primary Trend of the credit market had bottomed out. If so, on the horizon was a long period of rising interest rates that would upend trillions in investment, saving, business and speculative decisions. Six years on…the Primary Trend toward higher yields (and interest rates) is now well established.
The Bloated Cow
The most important story we’re following this week is one we’ve been tracking since 2020. Back then, it was just a high-confidence hunch — that the 40-year Primary Trend of the credit market had bottomed out. If so, on the horizon was a long period of rising interest rates that would upend trillions in investment, saving, business and speculative decisions. Six years on...the Primary Trend toward higher yields (and interest rates) is now well established.
Le grand réveil des taux
La remontée des taux d’intérêt remet une vieille question au centre du jeu : que devient un État qui a pris l’habitude de dépenser sans compter ? Quand le coût de la dette s’envole, les promesses de l’État-providence deviennent soudain beaucoup plus difficiles à tenir. La grande nouvelle de la semaine est la suivante : les taux d’intérêt s’envolent. Asia Times : « Le Japon a donné le premier avertissement, avec un rendement à 10 ans atteignant un plus haut de 30 ans, autour de 3 %.
The Cadence of Death Itself
The big news yesterday was this. Interest rates are shooting up. Asia Times: Japan flashed the first warning, with 10-year yields hitting a 30-year high near 3%. [Last] week, US Treasuries followed, with yields reaching levels unseen since 2007 — traders called it “Black Wednesday.” Thirty-year yields sit at 22-year highs; 10-year yields are at two-decade highs.
The Cadence of Death Itself
King Louis XIV of France, The Sun King. Source: Getty Images The big news yesterday was this. Interest rates are shooting up. Asia Times: Japan flashed the first warning, with 10-year yields hitting a 30-year high near 3%. [Last] week, US Treasuries followed, with yields reaching levels unseen since 2007 — traders called it “Black Wednesday.” Thirty-year yields sit at 22-year highs; 10-year yields are at two-decade highs.
Les partis traditionnels ont-ils fait leur temps ?
Des États-Unis à l’Europe, les électeurs se détournent de plus en plus des grands partis qui ont dominé la politique depuis des décennies. Derrière cette poussée des formations plus radicales, une même question : le modèle politique et économique de l’après-guerre est-il arrivé au bout de sa logique ? Pourquoi les électeurs traditionnels se détournent-ils des partis traditionnels ?
What Really Caused It
Why have mainstream voters turned against mainstream political parties? The answer, we think, is that the Big Tent politicians — Republicans and Democrats — have run out of material. No more bearded ladies. No more strongmen or magicians. And someone seems to have let the elephants run loose. The latest, and greatest, of the showmen — Donald Trump — tried a revival, by bringing in more freaks and high-wire acts. But even the most loyal fans are walking out.
What Really Caused It (cont.)
Today, we pick up where we left off on Friday. Why have mainstream voters turned against mainstream political parties? The answer, we think, is that the Big Tent politicians — Republicans and Democrats — have run out of material. No more bearded ladies. No more strongmen or magicians. And someone seems to have let the elephants run loose. The latest, and greatest, of the showmen — Donald Trump — tried a revival, by bringing in more freaks and high-wire acts.
L’empire américain : qui tient encore la barre ?
La dette fédérale américaine a dépassé les 40 000 milliards de dollars et continue de progresser de plusieurs milliards chaque jour. Derrière Donald Trump et les alternances politiques, une mécanique plus profonde est à l’œuvre : une dette devenue si lourde que le prochain président aura de moins en moins de marge pour changer de cap. « On peut aller très loin avec un sourire. Mais on peut aller encore plus loin avec un sourire et un pistolet.
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