Bo Andree

Conflict reignited in the Middle East in late February 2026, sending energy prices sharply higher and widening macroeconomic uncertainty. The April 2026 World Food Security Outlook projects that severe food insecurity will exceed one billion people globally by 2028, with the 2030 estimate revised upward by 46 million people relative to the October 2025 outlook. Yet food-security projections have operational value only when they rest on a credible evidence base. That evidence base is weakening.

Food security projections and the underlying data architecture have informed decisions at scale. The Outlook’s financing-needs series, which estimates the cash value required to cover 25 percent of minimum energy dietary needs for the affected population, was developed to inform the IDA pandemic needs assessment.

Figure notes Figure 1 details. Global severely food-insecure population, 1999–2031 (millions). The solid black line shows historical estimates, combining observed Food Insecurity Experience Scale data (2015–2023) with model estimates (1999–2025). Estimates for 2024 and 2025 remain preliminary as newer data are incorporated.