Economist, Arkansas Department of Agriculture; Professor Emeritus, UADA, Department Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Economic Outlook, Policy, Trade, etc.
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Articles by Bobby Coats
What are the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade impacts?
Getty Images Phase 1 impact remains uncertain. Soybean, corn, rice, cotton, and wheat Phase 1 impacts Dr. Bobby Coats | Feb 19, 2020 Make no mistake, outside the Chinese core leadership no one knows the path China will take to meet their Phase 1 trade commitments, especially agricultural product purchases. The U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal was written due to political necessity and was a wakeup call for all U.S. trade partners, like the European Union. Why?
Local State Parks Association Changes Name
Robert Coats, Past President, SYRPA Western Nevada County State Parks Association Transitions to Sierra Gold Parks Foundation I wish to update you on the transition to a single entity serving as the cooperating association for the three state parks in Western Nevada County.South Yuba River Park Association has changed its name to Sierra Gold Parks Foundation and, effective Dec.
VP Pence: Realities, gravities of U.S.-China trade relations
Vice President Mike Pence addressed U.S.-China relations and other foreign policy issues at the Wilson Center’s inaugural Frederic V.
Current marketing period remains highly challenging
stanley45/IStock/GettyImagesPlus In 2019 U.S. corn and soybean producers faced an array of production challenges from droughty conditions, excessive heat, tropical storms, etc. The 2019/20 marketing period will continue to be a highly challenging business environment.
Retaliatory tariffs, U.S. agriculture, and market outlook
The United States is a country like no other, but the challenges of remaining free, with an innovative capitalist spirit, where individual liberties and democracy reign supreme requires ongoing attention and sacrifice. The global, especially Chinese, retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. agricultural export sector have become increasingly burdensome with price trends more negative than positive.
Markets Focused on Horizon
As a pilot flies on the next leg of his journey, market participants are finding the next leg of their journey possibly a multi-month consolidation period with brief moments of white-knuckle turbulence encountered along the way.
Unknowns continue to dominate grain, rice and cotton markets
Brent Murphree Lateness of planting caused by excessive rain, flooding, etc. during the planting season still raise questions about final production and quality outcome. Predictions for price are still in unknown territory as outcomes have yet to be determined. Dr. Bobby Coats | Sep 16, 2019 As unknown outcomes for harvest and price continue in the commodities market, trade and weather patterns are creating uncertainty for producers and those marketing their crops.
Hong Kong truce offered, markets breathing easier
What do Hong Kong residents seek to accomplish through their masterfully orchestrated protests? In two words “Promised Autonomy” or self-government (self-rule). It should be pointed out that Hong Kong demonstrators and the Peoples Republic of China’s definition of administered autonomy are at an extreme divergence.
Market dynamics point to strong U.S. dollar
As the global economy continues to slow, investors throughout the world are increasingly seeking the U.S. Dollar, U.S. government securities, and U.S. equities as safe haven investment alternatives to many other global investment options. Unfortunately, a slowing global economy weighs on the commodity sector, which becomes highly personal for those of us in agriculture. The U.S. and global business cycle is extended. The U.S. is now in its longest business cycle in history.
Trade war punishing U.S. ag sector disproportionally
The Trade War, or the realignment of fiscal, monetary and trade policy between the U.S. and China, Mexico, Canada, European Union, Korea, Japan, and other trading partners, is punishing U.S. producers and the agricultural sector disproportionally more than many other sectors. Consider these commodity tariff numbers from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange: SOYBEANS to China – China’s imposed tariff of 25 percent, Q4 2017, compared to Q4 2018 shipments declined by 98 percent.
Supplies and demand challenge clear picture for crop prices
Brent Murphree The current marketing period will continue to be a highly challenging business environment. Prices for rice, grain, soybeans and cotton are being driven by large supplies and demand uncertainty. Dr. Bobby Coats | Aug 19, 2019 USDA’s U.S. and global rice, corn, soybean, and cotton balance sheets continue to show formidable supplies and uncertain demand.
Ten-Year Treasury Yield of one percent now possibility
FeelPic/iStock/Thinkstock Sovereign debt yields of zero and even negative is increasingly becoming the norm with between 25 percent and 35 percent of the world’s sovereign or individual country debt already negative, for the first time in history. Low support for 10-Year Treasury Yield is leading to a possible downside of one percent or lower.
Evolving supply and demand supports uncertainty in market prices
U.S. 2019 corn, soybean, rice, and cotton price outlook remains highly uncertain due to potentially evolving changes in supply and demand fundamentals.
Rice, corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton fundamentals show big supplies
USDA’s U.S. and global rice, corn, soybean, and cotton balance sheets show formidable supplies. Bullish price considerations. Final U.S. and global acreage and/or yield figures come in below USDA’s current expectations; weather stress erodes U.S. and global production projections as the year progresses; and significant progress is made in the US-China and other trade disputes. Bearish price considerations.
Solar minimum affects weather patterns, crop shortfalls
This is likely to be a cautious week in the markets across the board, including currencies, bonds, equities, and commodities, but especially in the rice, grain and cotton markets. U.S. weather patterns in 2019 have deviated significantly from the norm, leaving market participants to speculate on actual harvested acreage and yield and final production for U.S. corn, soybeans, rice and cotton.
G20 Summit & US/China truce magnify the new normalcy
President Trump likely accomplished more than most expect in the G20 Summit, US-China, US-Russia, US-South Korea, US-North Korea, etc. meetings, which started June 28, 2019.
G20 Osaka summit likely to influence market
Market participants will be waiting on the outcome on a number of market influencers this week including the G20 Osaka summit, USDA’s NASS Planting Progress and Crop Conditions Report and the Acreage Report, the continued impact on U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar following last week’s U.S. Fed Reserve FOMC meeting, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with other oil producing countries as they discuss an extension of the previous agreement.
Rice Webinar: Conservation Program Opportunities, June 20
Join us Thursday, June 20 at 10 a.m. CST as we host Josh Hankins who will talk about conservation program opportunities for rice. Great strides have been taken over the years to conserve our nation’s working ricelands with significant reductions in land, water, and energy use. As new conservation tools and programs emerge they present an opportunity to keep building on those accomplishments, but finding those opportunities is often the challenge.
Market uncertainty rises while disaster assistance emerges
Historic rainfall and subsequent flooding in many U.S. field crop production areas continues to be reflected in rising U.S. row crop prices. Corn and wheat prices are up, and soybean, rice, and cotton prices look to be benefitting from the situation. Production uncertainty will likely remain throughout this season.
U.S. seeks to level China’s highly aggressive global policy
The Trump Administration, with Congressional support, intends to level the global economic playing field and limit China’s highly aggressive global predatory policies related to intellectual property (IP), technology, and innovation. China’s leadership is completely open about their ambitions to dominate U.S. and global technology, finance, and military supremacy. Neither the Trump Administration nor Congress intend to allow China to achieve across the board global supremacy.
Webinar: U.S. and Global Rice Outlook, May 30
Join us at 10 a.m. CST on Thursday, May 30 for the U.S. and Global Rice Outlook webinar with Nathan Childs. This webinar will examine the outlook for the U.S. and global rice markets in 2019/20 based on the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. For the U.S., total supplies are projected to be up more than 6 percent, a result of an extremely large carryin more than offsetting a smaller crop.
Weather and Policy Disputes Dominate Market Prices
Brent Murphree Cotton prices need to hold above .64-cents the week of May 27, 2019 or serious price weakness could emerge. USDA announces round two of trade disruption support for producers. Dr. Bobby Coats | May 28, 2019 USDA has announced round two of direct payments as support for farmers impacted by trade disruption.
Hope dominates commodity markets
We all seem to be hoping: First, through fiscal, monetary and trade policy that U.S. and global economic momentum may be maintained (likely achievable); Second, contentious global trade policy disputes will be resolved (likely not achievable); Third, that global rice, grain and cotton supply and demand fundamentals will become more favorable for stronger prices (U.S. continuous planting season rainfall has all considering adjustments to their rice and grain balance sheets), but still to be...
May 23 webinar considers grain, oilseed and cotton markets
Ron Smith May 23 webinar to consider cotton and grain markets. Webinar to explore key grain and cotton market issues Dr. Bobby Coats | May 20, 2019 Rachel Trego, international economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, will present USDA’s 2019/20 major grains, oilseeds, and cotton forecasts in a May 23 webinar. The webinar begins at noon, Central Time.
Resolving U.S. China trade disputes
Will there be a U.S. and Chinese trade deal? Yes, but it will not be The Deal, which is to say there will not be a near term comprehensive multiyear agreement between the U.S. and China. This will be bearish for the commodity sector in general, but especially problematic for the U.S. grain markets. Resolving U.S. and Chinese trade disputes will be a multiyear process, or, said differently, an ongoing fiscal, monetary, and trade negotiation policy process. Why?
Interest rates slowly drift lower
The trend for10-Year Treasury Yields should remain sideways with a downside bias, which is critically important for the U.S. economy and the collective global economies. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield or interest rate May 3, 2019 was 2.54 and given time has the potential to revisit the July 2016 low of 1.43. The November 2018 high was 3.24. Consider: First, the global economic momentum going forward for multiple months will likely have a slight downside bias.
Dollar strength defining market outlook
The U.S. Dollar Index is defining the market outlook. The index remains sideways to up, attempting to make a clean break above previous highs. Consider: First, a rising dollar will place a drag on U.S. domestic and global growth, given today’s global economic dynamics. Second, a neutral to lower dollar has been supportive of current U.S. economic activity and global economies in general. Third, currency imbalances remain one of global leadership’s biggest challenges.
Market trading ranges being defined
Since the end of December 2018, many global markets have recovered and stabilized due to global intervention activities from the world’s most influential governments and central banks and other financial based institutions. Global economic weakness emerged in the 4th quarter of 2018, which was followed by a reasonably stable and progressive period of global growth in the first four months of 2019.
Webinar Recording Available: U.S. Rice Exports Free Trade - Fair Trade
Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography During last week’s webinar, Riceland Foods, Inc. Senior Vice President Terry Harris drew on his 43-years of experience in the global rice industry and discussed the challenges the U.S. rice industry faces selling rice in a world increasingly focused on food security, protectionism, and nationalism.
Rice, grains and cotton thoughts on 2019 outlook
Business consolidation continues. The U.S. business world, including the food and agricultural sector, remain in a consolidation period, due in part to global competition. China and other countries, for their own economic, social, and political reasons, embrace varying levels of protectionism and nationalism as global governments increasingly shelter their business sectors through support programs.
Webinar: U.S. Rice Exports Free Trade - Fair Trade, April 11
Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography Join us Thursday, April 11 at 10:00 a.m. CST as we host Riceland Foods, Inc. Senior Vice President Terry Harris. He will draw on his 43-years of experience in the global rice industry and discuss the challenges the U.S. rice industry faces selling rice in a world increasingly focused on food security, protectionism, and nationalism.
Is global reflation energizing global growth?
The U.S. government and central bank and global counterparts appear to be intervening with stimulative global reflation activities, as the story is told through the positive gains in today’s global equity markets. The simple truth is that all global economies, including the U.S., left unprotected from real world political and economic realities, sooner or later would drift into recession or worse if governments did not intervene to prevent a major economic downturn.
April 11 webinar looks at rice market challenges
Riceland Foods, Inc. Senior Vice President Terry Harris Riceland Foods, Inc. Senior Vice President Terry Harris will draw on his 43 years of experience in the global rice industry to discuss the challenges the U.S. rice industry faces selling rice in a world increasingly focused on food security, protectionism, and nationalism in an April 11 webinar, U.S. Rice Exports Free Trade - Fair Trade. The webinar begins at 10 A.M. CST.
Webinar: Future Rice, Grain, & Cotton Markets, Key Things to Watch - April 4
Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Join in Thursday, April 4, 2019 1:00 PM in Central Time (US and Canada) for the next Food and Agribusiness Webinar with Jeremy Zwinger and Shawn Hackett. Global commodity market prices are approaching a period of increasing volatility with rice, grains, and cotton seemingly leading the way.
Interest rates headed down as Fed confronts global slowdown
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) under the leadership of Chairman Jerome H. Powell.
Markets breathe sigh of relief
Markets face some headwinds with global economic slowdown. Fed transitions from tightening to accommodation Dr. Bobby Coats | Mar 25, 2019 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell, after the U.S. Federal Reserves’ latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019, said the Fed’s goal is sustainable U.S. economic expansion, the maintenance of a strong job market and stable prices.
Rice, grains and cotton ‘19 planting & outlook
The accompanying slide show is important to this article. In a nutshell, the 2019 global rice, soybean, corn, cotton, and wheat markets are facing strong headwinds from burdensome global supplies, anemic global growth, and highly contentious global trade and other policy disputes. The March 29, 2019 USDA Prospective Planting Report is not expected to improve the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals for U.S. row crops, unless Mother-Nature limits planted acreage and/or 2019 production.
Global slowdown, governments intervene, markets react
The managed global slowdown, which accelerated in the 4th quarter of 2018 was real and unfortunately much needed to manage global asset bubbles, e.g. global equity bubbles, and start the process of a major realignment of global currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. This collective activity to date is laying the foundation for sustaining global growth potentially for an additional two to five plus years into the future. Recession Avoidance.
As hope fades, market realignment intensifies
I have written extensively on policy and related market realities. Links to my previous seven Farm Press articles and slide shows can be found at the end of this article. This week, we look at market hope versus reality. Hope of a quick resolution to U.S. and global trade and policy disputes are slowly waning for several reasons. First, near term 2019 and likely into 2020 leaves grain, rice, cotton, and many other commodity producers concerned about ongoing cash flow deficits.
9 policy and market considerations affecting grains, rice and cotton
Large and small investors, speculators, financial institutions, etc. all seem to agree, near-term, that farmland remains a good investment. Ongoing global policy disputes, “especially China,” coupled with a slowing global economy are limiting the demand for U.S. grains, rice and cotton commodities.
USDA 2019 long grain rice, soybean, and corn outlook
Policy issues, including trade, will affect ag markets in coming months and years. Summary: Economic, Policy and Market Uncertainties Bobby Coats | Feb 26, 2019 2019 will likely be filled with economic, policy, and market uncertainties. Policy disputes with China will be at the top of the list and most likely the primary driver of evolving economic and market uncertainties. Sunday evening February 24, 2019 President Donald Trump tweeted.
Global Economy, Trade and Mother Nature Driving Agriculture Markets
Bobby Coats Professor - Economics University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service Phone: 501-671-2195 Email: rcoats@uaex.edu Mary Poling Coordinator of Interactive Communications University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service Phone: 501-671-2212 Email: mpoling@uaex.edu Office: University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service 2301 S.
Webinar: Rice Market Outlook - The Short and Long Term, Feb. 26
Join in on Thursday, February 26 at 8:00 AM CST to hear from Milo Hamilton, President & Founder Firstgrain. He will give us an overview of the rice market outlook from a short and long term perspective with emphasis on the big rice picture.
World, U.S. and Arkansas rice fundamentals weighing heavy on price
The 2018/19 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 34.8 million cwt., 60 percent above 2017/18 and the 2nd highest since 1985; the 5-year average is 23 million cwt. and the 10-year average is 24 million cwt. (Chart B9) Download the chart book that is attached to this article. Also, global rice production, total supply, and ending stocks are at record levels. (Chart A8) Currently, global policy disputes, economic and political uncertainties have slowed global growth.
Webinar: Global Economy, Trade, and Mother Nature Driving Ag Markets, Feb. 21
Join us Thursday, February 21 at 3 p.m. CST to hear from Terry Barr, a nationally recognized economist and senior director for CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division. He will be speaking trade and other factors’ influence on the global economy. Agriculture and rural America will face significant challenges in 2019-20 as the U.S. and global economies slow and trade uncertainties continue.
Part 2. Global markets realign to extend global expansion
Editor’s note: This is a series of articles focusing on understanding the Trump Administration’s China and related policy disputes and other factors affecting U.S. and global growth and currency, bond, equity and commodity market dynamics. In Part 1 of this series we discussed: First, China presents an “Immediate, Real and Present Danger” to the United States.
Part 1. Vice President Pence on China policy
China presents real and present danger Bobby Coats | Feb 04, 2019 U.S. vs China. Understanding the complex fiscal, monetary, trade and national security policies defining the rules governing the U.S. and Chinese relationship is more than a little challenging.
FAPRI’s Westhoff discusses row crop market outlook under the new farm bill
Dr. Pat Westhoff’s recent “Market Outlook under the 2018 Farm Bill” webinar provided timely and insightful expectations. Pat did a masterful job of explaining the current market knowns and unknowns, due to the government shutdown, which stopped the availability of a vast array of USDA market analysis, data and information reports. The absence of USDA’s January 11, 2019, Supply and Demand Estimates report was particularly problematic for commodity analysts globally.
Webinar: A First Look at the Farm Bill, Jan. 31
Corn field landscape, pre-tassel. Photo: ©Debra L Ferguson Join us on Thursday, January 31st at 8 a.m. CST for a webinar presentation by Keith Coble, MSU ag economist. He will focus on the provisions of the new Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018. Specific provision of interest to row crop farmers will be examined.
Key considerations to consider with new farm bill
New farm bill includes important changes Bobby Coats | Jan 23, 2019 The Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018 does not move far away from the basics of the 2014 law, but several changes will make a difference in how farmers decide which to elect. The following are a few key points for consideration, while watching upcoming market outlook and farm bill video and webinars. ARC and PLC election options updated Price Loss Coverage (PLC).
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