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Articles by Boris Grozovski
Where to Find Ukraine in Trump’s Second Inaugural Address
Woodrow Wilson refashioned the relationship of the United States to the outside world. One could say that he created modern American foreign policy. He presided over an emerging superpower that—by 1917—was willing to enter a world war very far from American soil. Too many US interests converged on a Europe awash in war, Wilson believed, and too many US interests converged on the peace that would follow the war.
Patience and Persistence as the Path to Ending the War
Throughout his campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to end Russia’s war against Ukraine within 24 hours. While this ambitious timeline has since been extended—his point person on Ukraine is now tasked with delivering a deal within 100 days—Trump wasted no time after his inauguration to intensify his public push for peace. On Wednesday, the new US president escalated the pressure by threatening tariffs and sanctions if Moscow refuses to cooperate.
Putin’s 2025 New Year’s Address-And an Anniversary Forgotten
The end of 2024 brought a series of significant setbacks for Vladimir Putin: the collapse of the Assad regime, an environmental disaster in the Black Sea, the closure of the main gas pipeline to Europe, and the distancing of key Russian allies like Hungary and Slovakia. Nevertheless, Putin’s New Year’s message remained upbeat. He looked ahead to the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Germany in World War II, assuring the nation of its strength.
The Exiled Anti-Putin Opposition and the Question of Democratic Representation
Russia’s exiled opposition faces a critical challenge of legitimacy, struggling to connect with the Russian people at home and abroad, and with international audiences as well. While united in their anti-Putin stance, divisions over patriotism, national identity, and Western alignment have hindered their ability to build a cohesive movement.
The Risks of Russia’s Two Speed Economy in 2025
Russia’s war economy, now in its third year, is facing mounting challenges, including rising inflation, labor shortages, and growing economic imbalances. While these issues strain the civilian economy, they have not been severe enough to force Vladimir Putin to halt the war.
Russia’s Top-Down Capture of Georgia
Since initiating the war in Ukraine, Russia has become a political pariah in the West but has managed to solidify alliances with Iran and North Korea. Russia's influence has also strengthened in Central Asia, where fears of Russian aggression have led to a cautious approach calculated not to antagonize Moscow. Similarly, Russia’s standing in Azerbaijan has improved, with Putin gaining favor by effectively distancing himself from Armenia, Russia’s former ally and Azerbaijan’s regional rival.
Peter Reddaway: Dictatorships Appear Stronger Than They Are
Last week Peter Reddaway, a remarkable political scientist, researcher of the USSR and Russia, and civil activist who did much to defend human rights in the USSR, passed away. Peter was not only a scholar, he was also a generous, insightful teacher, and always stood out among the scholars of the USSR by his understanding that the USSR was not just Russia.
Putin Bets on Geoeconomic Fragmentation
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been accompanied by the severing of economic, financial, and cultural ties between Russia and the West. Yet Russia has not become a "besieged fortress" and is not seeking self-sufficiency. It is important for Putin to maintain export revenues and not leave industry without the necessary imported components, including dual-use ones.
The West Should Brace for Long-Term Deterrence of Russia
After months of political wrangling the Ukraine military aid package cleared both chambers of Congress and was signed by the president on Wednesday. This is an important milestone signaling bipartisan support for the Ukrainian cause. Yet, although immediate shipments were promised, a substantial portion of the package—$48 billion out of nearly $61 billion—will pay for replenishing U.S. weapons stockpiles and producing new equipment for Ukraine.
The Russian War Machine
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, fatigue has set in in all the countries directly or indirectly involved. It is difficult for politicians to decide to increase military spending: there are always domestic problems that voters prioritize. It is difficult for companies to increase arms production quickly. In both Ukraine and Russia, there is an obvious shortage of people willing to fight. However, Russia’s political and economic system is far better prepared for war.
Navalny’s Heroism in the Face of Putin’s Revenge
The murder of Alexei Navalny was not an act but a process. It took several years. Putin’s attempt to poison Navalny in 2020 with the nerve agent Novichok was preceded by years of stalking by FSB officers. When he survived the near fatal poisoning, Putin put him in prison for nineteen years. Incarceration in a Russian prison is not just a restriction of freedom but a humiliating and physically intolerable existence. The daily routine is rigid.
The War Tax in Russia
It is much easier for authoritarian countries to wage war than for democracies. Having failed to “freeze Europe” in the winter of 2022–2023 by switching off the gas supply, Vladimir Putin is once again hoping that time is on his side. In the United States and much of Europe, willingness to support Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia is waning. Voters are unhappy with rising aid spending on Ukraine and rising inflation.
Russia’s Unprecedented War Budget Explained
Russia’s military expenditure has tripled compared to pre-war times. By 2023, the government intends to spend $160 billion on military needs, or 40 percent of its budget. Combined with regional and private war-related expenditures, this figure may surpass 10 percent of GDP in 2023.
Putin, the Weak Strongman. Part II
Despite its apparent failure, Prigozhin’s mutiny opens a new stage in Russian political history. Preparations for a fight for Putin’s legacy may have already started. After the mutiny, Russia’s regime seems very fragile. The war has thrown Putin’s system off balance, and there are growing calls for it to be reformed. The positions of both those who want to stop the war and those who want more brutality have been strengthened.
Putin, the Weak Strongman. Part I
The Wagner Group’s failed mutiny last weekend was perhaps a false start. The private military company’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was not prepared to unseat Putin. Whatever the next moves by the main actors, Prigozhin has already left a legacy, and it is political. According to Western intelligence sources, Prigozhin’s main objective was to defend his military business.
Putin’s War Costs: Changing Russia’s Economy
This article is part one of a two-part series. Read part two here. A warm winter and a looming recession in some Western countries have helped make sanctions against Russian exports work. Spending on the war has increased significantly, and the government has had to cut nonmilitary expenses and to finance the deficit through money emission. Sanctions cannot stop the war, but they are making it harder to fund. Putin is ready to spend, but his war chest is running thin.
Russia’s Party of War Seeks to Turn the War with Ukraine into a National Cause. It Will Fail
BY BORIS GROZOVSKY Inside Russia, the Russian army's lack of significant successes in Ukraine from April to September and its recent defeat in the Kharkov region have raised the question of how to continue the war and avoid Russia's defeat. For Vladimir Putin, this question does not seem to have a good answer.
Capitalism the Kremlin Way
BY BORIS GROZOVSKY AND MAXIM TRUDOLYUBOV In his two decades in power, President Vladimir Putin has prevented Russia’s economy from going under and kept most of the ruling elite in place. The secret behind Putin’s remarkable course of stability is a public-private partnership of sorts, a business arrangement, in which the public side is represented by Putin and the private side by his friends and other individuals who were able to make special deals within his system.
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