Brian McQuilkin

Photo by Miles Kennedy/Philadelphia Phillies/Getty Images The Rotation is first and foremost a story. A true story, of course, but one entwined with prospects of glory and, to steal a phrase from Howard Cosell, the agony of defeat. So easy is it to get wrapped up in the narrative that I nearly forgot how the season actually ended, and found myself hoping that this time the outcome was different. Like any good story, this one opens with an introduction to our main characters.

Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images With two strikes on him, Castellanos steps out of the box, swings the bat, grimaces a little as he adjusts his helmet, then steps back up to the plate. The next pitch misses outside and so low that it kicks up dirt. He chases anyway, bat nowhere close to making contact with the ball. This could have played out in almost any game last season.

Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images Hemingway said what was true at dawn was often a lie by noon. Mike Tyson expressed this sentiment with a more amusing turn of phrase: everyone’s got a plan until you get punched in the face. And so it is with starting rotations; your vision of the season in April is often unrecognizable from the reality of September. So what’s a realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 rotation?