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Articles by Bryce Wakefield
Is Europe Getting Its Mojo Back?
Donald Trump’s return to office fuelled anxiety across Europe, a continent long accustomed to relying on American military leadership and often uncomfortable thinking in terms of geopolitical power. Yet conversations at the GLOBSEC 2026 Prague Forum suggested that Europe may be beginning to rediscover the habits and ambitions of strategic self-reliance. For years, the dominant narrative about Europe was one of strategic hesitation and dependency.
Europäische Union und Australien: Freihandelsabkommen und Sicherheit
F.A.Z. Premium Weltwirtschaft Rinder im Tausch gegen Rüstung Von Bryce Wakefield 26.03.2026, 07:02Lesezeit: 5 Min. Bildbeschreibung ausklappen Nach dem zwischenzeitlichen Scheitern der Verhandlungen scheint der Freihandel zwischen der EU und Australien nun unter Dach und Fach. Für eine Rüstungspartnerschaft bot Canberra auch seinen Farmern die Stirn, erklärt der Leiter einer australischen Denkfabrik.
Wadephul im Südpazifik: Warum die Region für Deutschland wichtig ist
Es ist bemerkenswert, dass Außenminister Johann Wadephuls Reise in den Indopazifik auch die Aufnahme diplomatischer Beziehungen zum Inselstaat Niue einschließt und ihn nach Tonga führt. Jedoch treffen dort mehrere Entwicklungen zusammen, die Berlin derzeit beschäftigen: Mittelmächte-Diplomatie, Klimapolitik, strategische Rivalität, Desinformation und die Zukunft der multilateralen Ordnung.
Australian Institute of International Affairs
This month the Australian Institute of International Affairs mourns the death of Geoffrey (Geoff) Miller AO FAIIA, one of Australia’s most distinguished diplomats and
In Memoriam: Vale Geoff Miller - Australian Institute of International Affairs
This month the Australian Institute of International Affairs mourns the death of Geoffrey (Geoff) Miller AO FAIIA, one of Australia’s most distinguished diplomats and strategic advisers, and one of the most committed members of the AIIA community. Geoff’s professional career was one of exceptional distinction.
AIIA 2025 In Sum
The AIIA National Conference threaded through many topics over the course of November 17. In the summation of the conference, reconstructed from notes, several key themes, however, were clear. Ladies and gentlemen, excellencies, fellows of the AIIA, members, colleagues, friends, We are not quite finished yet, but as we start to bring this year’s AIIA National Conference to a close, it’s worth remembering our theme: A World Disrupted: Australia and Global Reordering.
AIIA National Conference 2025 Photos
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AIIA National Conference 2025 Embassy of Peru Reception Photos
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AIIA National Conference 2025 Photos
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A World Disrupted
On 17 November, the AIIA held its 2025 National Conference. AIIA CEO Dr Bryce Wakefield delivered the opening speech to the conference. Other keynotes, including by Foreign Minister Senator the Honourable Penny Wong and AIIA National President Dr Heather Smith PSM FAIIA are available here. Ladies and gentlemen, excellencies, fellows, members, distinguished guests, colleagues, friends, Welcome to the AIIA National Conference 2025.
Book Review: The Myth of the Asian Century
Bilahari Kausikan’s The Myth of the Asian Century challenges the popular idea that the twenty-first century belongs to Asia, arguing that such narratives mask the region’s internal diversity and shifting power balances. Drawing on his extensive diplomatic experience, Kausikan contends that framing the era as an “Asian Century” risks entrenching zero-sum thinking and exacerbating strategic tensions between the United States and China.
Trump Doesn’t Think Much About Us. That’s a Good Thing
The Trump-Albanese meeting delivered substantial wins—a critical minerals deal and strong AUKUS backing—without the theatrical flattery that has marked other leaders’ approaches. Australia’s greatest advantage may be flying under Trump’s radar, allowing policy progress without becoming a target of his transactional worldview. The outcome of the first serious Trump-Albanese meeting was always going to be unpredictable, which makes its deliverables all the more impressive.
Book Review: Strategic Minilateralism and the Regional Security Architecture of the Indo-Pacific
European security experts sometimes assume that NATO-style multilateral institutions should be the gold standard for defense cooperation everywhere, but the Indo-Pacific operates differently. Thomas Wilkins’ new book offers a rigorous examination of “strategic minilateralism”—small groupings like the Quad and AUKUS that are reshaping regional security in ways that bridge the gap between bilateral alliances and larger multilateral forums.
Transatlanticism in Trouble
A European recalibration is taking place as Washington wavers on Ukraine. The resentment palpable at a recent conference in Kyiv, where Europeans discussed their own approaches to ending the conflict, shows that the United States is losing credibility on the continent. When the air raid alert sounded, I was on the Maidan, the square where mass movements helped to shape so much of Ukraine’s recent history.
AIIA CEO Contributes to Roundtable on NATO in Italy
CADENNABIA – Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) CEO Dr Bryce Wakefield was invited this week to speak at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Roundtable on Rebalancing NATO, held at the former German chancellor’s summer residence in Cadenabbia, Italy. The roundtable brought together experts and policymakers to discuss NATO’s evolving role in light of global security challenges.
AIIA CEO in Ukraine for Major Summit on Ending War
KYIV – The Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) is committed to connecting Australia to key global conversations on security and international relations. In this spirit, AIIA CEO Dr Bryce Wakefield attended the Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit in Kyiv, joining global leaders, policymakers, and experts to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine and the future of European and international security.
AIIA Victoria Welcomes Yulia Navalnaya for First Australian Visit
MELBOURNE – The Australian Institute of International Affairs Victoria, in partnership with the Melbourne Press Club, is honoured to host Yulia Navalnaya on her first visit to Australia for an in-person conversation at 356 Collins Street on Thursday, 4 September 2025. Registration is available here. This special event, held under the Chatham House Rule, offers a rare opportunity to hear from one of the most prominent figures in the global fight for democracy and human rights.
Euan Crone Asian Awareness Scholarship
Scholarship Background & Intended Outcomes The Australian Institute of International Affairs was proud to have been invited by the late Euan Crone to administer the scholarship program which he created in 2013 following his involvement in study tours to China (2012) and Myanmar (2013) organised by AIIA Victoria. At the time Mr Crone believed that there was a demand in the community for young Australians to undertake projects in Asia.
AIIA CEO in Warsaw for talks with officials, experts
From 7-12 June, AIIA Chief Executive Officer Dr Bryce Wakefield travelled to Warsaw for discussions with Polish government officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defence, the National Security Bureau, and international advisers to the President of Poland at the presidential palace. He also spoke to experts on foreign affairs at the nation’s major think tanks and the University of Warsaw.
Trianonsense? - Australian Institute of International Affairs
In the weeks before the European Union accepted Ukraine into membership talks, AIIA National Executive Director Dr Bryce Wakefield travelled to Hungary and asked about Budapest’s beef with Kyiv. “I’m pleased that nationalism is no longer an expletive.” Welcome to Hungary, where cultural sovereignty is front and centre in discussions on foreign policy. I’m in Budapest attending a conference on 75 years of India-Hungary relations.
Farewell to Allan Gyngell, Beloved Leader, Mentor, and Friend - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Allan Gyngell, immediate past president of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, will be remembered not only a great Australian, but one whose impressive and unparalleled contribution to the debate and practice on international affairs did not overshadow his humility and kindness. Because he was never one to rest on his significant laurels, Allan’s death this morning, while surrounded by family and friends, will leave a gaping hole in the foreign policy community in Canberra.
Book Review: Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise - AIIA
It has recently become fashionable in Washington and other defence and foreign policy establishments to view China as eternally devious. Susan Shirk rejects this as historical revisionism, emphasising how domestic politics have pushed China towards overreach. In light of increasing international tension, some now surmise that a period where China was rising peacefully and might be persuaded to liberalise was always a fabrication of the Chinese state.
Jacinda Ardern: The Right Leader at the Right Time
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced that she is to step down as the nation’s leader by 7 February. Ardern, in the role since winning the 2017 general election, has been slipping in the polls in her home country despite a stellar reputation overseas. However, as she announced her departure, she noted that she is leaving not because she was afraid to lose the election scheduled for 14 October this year, but because she dreads winning.
New Zealand's "International Prime Minister" Resigns - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Jacinda Ardern has stepped down as New Zealand Prime Minister. What is her legacy, and what will her resignation mean for New Zealand politics? New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced that she is to step down as the nation’s leader on February 7. Ardern, in the role since winning the 2017 general election, has been slipping in the polls in her home country despite a stellar reputation overseas.
Another year, another prime minister for Japan
6 October 2021 Author: Bryce Wakefield, Australian Institute of International Affairs Defying the predictions of many pundits, Fumio Kishida has been elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan and thus the nation’s prime minister. A former foreign minister, Kishida heads the Kochikai, arguably the most prestigious of the LDP’s seven factions, with thick links to the nation’s bureaucracy.
Perfidious Aotearoa? New Zealand’s Five Eyes Problem - Australian Institute of International Affairs
New Zealand sees Five Eyes as a practical intelligence-sharing agreement not a foreign policy coordination mechanism. This stems less from a fear of economic retaliation from Beijing than from its national identity and conceptualisation of its regional interests. New Zealand is in the doghouse. If sections of the Twitterati and Australian media are to be believed, it is no longer a trusted ally. It doesn’t join its “Five Eyes alliance” partners to make statements critical of China.
For Japan’s New Prime Minister, Personnel is Policy… and Politics - Australian Institute of International Affairs For Japan’s New Prime Minister, Personnel is Policy… and Politics - AIIA
As chief cabinet secretary in the Abe administration, Suga Yoshihide was adept at recommending the right people for the right cabinet posts. What do Prime Minister Suga’s cabinet picks tell us about his foreign policy? Japan’s new prime minster, Suga Yoshihide, cleaves more than anyone to the notion that personnel is policy.
No Political Horizon in Sight for Israel’s Elections - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Had the leading “centre-left” parties been willing to see Palestinian citizens of Israel as equal, they could challenge the right-wing hegemony in Israel’s national legislature. But that would be asking the impossible. In September this year snap elections are due to be held in Israel, just five months after the last round did not yield the formation of a new government.
Thailand's Journey Back to Democracy? - AIIA
After five years of military rule, Thailand is finally returning to the polls on 24 March. But with a new constitution and a crowded field of candidates, the results will be difficult to predict. Thailand is country gifted with fertile soils, abundant tourist attractions and a geographic location largely free of natural disasters.
Singapore’s Prime Minister in Waiting - AIIA
The likely election of Heng Swee Keat as Singapore’s fourth prime minister will cement consultative authoritarianism as a PAP-favoured mode of governance. Speculation about Singapore’s fourth prime minister has been rife since incumbent Lee Hsien Loong confirmed following the 2015 election that he intended to step down in 2022.
Preventing Election Violence Through Diplomacy - AIIA
With many countries suffering from election violence today, what can be done to prevent it? Early, sustained and consistent preventive diplomacy can prove useful. Elections are fragile processes. Their proper conduct is contingent upon the integrity and goodwill of the institutions, stakeholders and procedures involved.
The Flawed ‘Crimes Against Peace’ Charges at the Tokyo Tribunal - AIIA
When making their ‘crimes against peace’ case against the Japanese leaders at Tokyo, the prosecutors were working against time — for as the trial progressed, so too did the Cold War, turning old foes into new allies and old allies into new foes. When the International Military Tribunal for the Far East opened in Tokyo on 3 May 1946, the Allied prosecuting powers charged all twenty-eight Japanese defendants with conspiring to commit ‘crimes against peace’.
Reading Room: An Introduction to Asia-Pacific Security - AIIA
The book makes for an excellent primer on issues of Asia-Pacific security, with twelve chapters exploring both traditional and non-traditional topics. Divided into three sections, the first, entitled The Changing Asia-Pacific Security Order, might well be renamed Questions of Status in the Asia-Pacific.
“We are a mature democracy”? The 14th Malaysian General Elections - AIIA
The General Election in Malaysia has the opportunity to shift government for the first time in 61 years. Who are the competitors? And what are the challenges for the vote? Malaysia’s General Election 14 (GE14) has the potential to be one of the most significant in the country’s history. Since 1957, the United Malays Nationalist Organisation (UMNO)—the leader of various coalitions—has held power as the ruling party of the Federation of Malaysia.
Reading Room: Smart Diplomacy - Australian Institute of International Affairs
The political, economic and security power play between China and India, arguably the two most critical Asian powers today, is a major theme of current global political analysis. Against the backdrop of the Doklam plateau standoff between the two powers last year, P.S. Suryanarayana’s Smart Diplomacy: Exploring China-India Synergy is a timely, comprehensive and judicious volume which provides a detailed analysis of both historical and recent India-China relations.
Trilateral Diplomacy: Australian Indo-Pacific Strategy - AIIA
In the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific region, Australia could enhance its trilateral engagement with Indonesia, India and Japan by taking advantage of the convergence of strategic interests. Diplomacy will be key. Converging economic and strategic power in the Indo-Pacific is drawing Australia closer to its regional partners, Indonesia, India and Japan.
Sweaters and Soft Power: An Unlikely Pairing - AIIA
Japanese clothing empire Uniqlo has recently expanded across Australia. So, how did your latest jeans purchase contribute to Japanese soft power? Since Uniqlo opened its first Australian store in Melbourne in 2014, it has expanded its business across the eastern states. Uniqlo’s minimalistic aesthetics are slowly being understood by Australian consumers and many fashion lovers in the other states are also looking forward to being able to shop at Uniqlo locally soon.
The End of Japan's Peace Clause? - AIIA
Pacifism has been enshrined in Japan’s constitution since the end of World War II but a vote this weekend will influence how and when this may change. What kind of amendment should Australia hope for? Right now in Tokyo the ruling party of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), are taking on a seven-decade dream to amend the constitution the United States drafted during its occupation after World War II.
India in Asia: ASEAN, Japan and the Right Balance - AIIA
India has been taking steps to become a much more visible player across the entire Indo-Pacific region, extending from the maritime space to the west all the way to the east. This is both through its involvement in Asia’s most central regional institutions and through deepened ties with Japan. India’s ‘Look East’ policy of the 1990s declared a priority to strengthen ties with Southeast and East Asia.
Remembering Harold Holt - AIIA
The 50th anniversary of the death of Australian Prime Minister Harold Holt is a reminder of one of the strangest periods in Australia’s history, and one which spawned numerous conspiracy theories. The conspiracy theories include that Harold Holt was collected by a Chinese submarine to live out his days in Beijing. Behind these theatrics however, was a leader who was very much ahead of his time.
Australia’s Silence on Indonesia - AIIA
Indonesian reading the Foreign Policy White Paper would be forgiven for thinking that Australia doesn’t see their country as all that important to its foreign policy. The problem for Australia is that they probably couldn’t care less. Prime Minister Paul Keating famously said in 1994, “no country is more important to Australia than Indonesia.
Powerful But Not Popular: The Perennial Shinzo Abe - AIIA
Despite maintaining a commanding majority in last weekend’s Japanese elections, neither Shinzo Abe nor his Liberal Democratic Party are popular and constitutional revision, the prime minister’s pet project, may still be a long shot. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cruised to an easy win in Sunday’s election. The ruling coalition captured 313 of the 465 seats, giving it a two-thirds majority in the Lower House. This was, however, in spite of public discontent with the government.
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