Carly Barbera

Abstract Early warning signals (EWS) provide a crucial opportunity to predict and mitigate emerging infectious disease outbreaks before they escalate. However, their practical application remains largely theoretical, often limited to single diseases and specific locations, with little systematic evaluation of their predictive accuracy across different contexts.

Abstract Culicoides midges are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), an arbovirus affecting wild and domestic ruminants. Bluetongue distribution generally overlaps with vector range, so understanding the ecology of the vector is necessary for predicting BTV risk. Culicoides require moist substrate for oviposition and development, and C. sonorensis, the primary vector in the western United States, is classically associated with livestock wastewater ponds.