Caroline Fenlon

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first presentation of a comprehensively-evaluated predictive model of heifer conception to service. It is also the first known description of generalised additive modelling as a modelling technique for this application. In addition to the discrimination methods commonly used to evaluate data mining results, lesser-known calibration techniques were used to measure the accuracy of the predicted probabilities.

The impact of removal of the seasonality formula was the primary motivation for this study. The study results indicate that the modelled impact of such removal would be relatively minor, based on available data, regardless of the method used to calculate the 3-month rolling geometric mean. The projected increase in the number of herds liable for suspension represents approximately 0.7% (114/16,740) of the national herd.