Cathryn E Birch
Leeds
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Professor of Meteorology and Climate at University of Leeds. Severe weather, heat extremes, dynamical meteorology.
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Articles by Cathryn E Birch
Interdisciplinary Assessment of Tanzanian Severe Weather Forecasts: Linking Verification and User Evaluation
1 Introduction The severity and frequency of high-impact weather hazards are increasing across most regions due to climate change (IPCC 2021), with projections indicating more intense heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Africa and Asia counties (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018; Szopa et al. 2021). These hazards already influence socioeconomic activity and risk-reduction measures.
Synoptic-to-interannual drivers of humid heat variability in equatorial Southeast Asia
Abstract As the Earth continues to warm, humid heat extremes (HHEs) have emerged as a widely recognised threat to human health in equatorial Southeast Asia (SEA). While most studies have focused on climate trends, this study presents a comprehensive analysis of the synoptic and large-scale drivers of HHEs. On daily timescales, both the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Kelvin waves are the leading modes of HHE variability.
N-FOREWARNS: Regional Nowcasting of Surface Water Flooding With a 3-h Lead Time Predictability Limit
1 Introduction Surface water flooding (also known as pluvial flooding) is defined as rainfall-generated water that pools on or flows over the ground surface, before it enters a major watercourse or drainage system (Falconer et al. 2009; Speight et al. 2021). This type of flooding is typically caused by intense convective weather events that produce high volumes of rainfall over localised regions, in short periods of time.
Exploring the Use of Flood Early Warning Systems by Communities in England
1 Introduction Approximately 90% of all natural hazards worldwide are water-related, with floods accounting for over half of these (Perera et al. 2019). Between 2001 and 2018, floods were responsible for almost 100,000 deaths and USD 500 billion in economic losses globally (EM-DAT 2019) and flooding is increasing in both frequency and severity due to ongoing global climate change (Allen et al. 2019). Accordingly, several billion dollars have been spent on flood mitigation measures (Perera et al.
The Sensitivity of Urban Pluvial Flooding to the Temporal Distribution of Rainfall Within Design Storms
1 Introduction Flooding is the most frequently occurring and harmful natural hazard globally (Jenkins et al. 2018; Razavi et al. 2020). In England, pluvial flooding is the most widespread form of flooding, placing roughly 3.2 million properties at risk (Environment Agency 2021). Pluvial flooding—or surface water flooding as it is commonly known in the UK—occurs when the volume of rainfall exceeds the absorption capacity of the ground and the storm water drainage capacity (Archer and Fowler 2018).
Mid‐Level Dry Air Intrusions over the southern Maritime Continent
Patterns in extreme precipitation across the Maritime Continent in Southeast Asia are known to be modulated by many processes, from large-scale modes of variability such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, to finer-scale mechanisms such as the diurnal cycle. Transient mid-level dry air intrusions are an example of a feature not extensively studied over the Maritime Continent, which has the potential to influence rainfall patterns.
The Role of Density Currents and Gravity Waves in the Offshore Propagation of Convection over Sumatra
Keywords: Maritime Continent; Cold pools; Gravity waves; Diurnal effects; Sea breezes; Squall lines 1. Introduction The Maritime C`ontinent (Ramage 1968) is the Southeast Asian archipelago located in the oceanic warm pool between the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Austral summer droughts and their driving mechanisms in observations and present‐day climate simulations over Malawi
5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Knowledge of drought processes across Malawi is underdeveloped considering the country's unique geographical location in relation to precipitation climatology. Through this study, we have demonstrated a means to examine the meteorological drought climatology in the context of the country's precipitation climatology. We have further presented circulation patterns associated with its variability.
the effects of extreme heat on health in Africa -- 4 essential reads
Scientists are sounding the alarm about the extreme increases in the Earth’s temperature. A new report by UNICEF warns that 2022 could be the “coldest year of the rest of our lives”. Heatwaves are becoming stronger and lasting longer. These increases are threatening the limits of human survival. The African continent is particularly at risk – it’s heating up more, and faster, than any other region in the world.
Climate change impacts on extreme rainfall in Eastern Africa in a convection permitting climate model
Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes. Understanding future changes in rainfall is necessary for adaptation planning. Eastern Africa is vulnerable to rainfall extremes due to low adaptive capacity and high future population growth.
La muerte de niños en África por calor, otra consecuencia del cambio climático
El cambio climático ya ha incrementado las temperaturas globales y, en particular, las más extremas. Se trata de una tendencia que no se revertirá a menos que se consiga la neutralidad climática. En este sentido, el objetivo de los 1,5 grados del Acuerdo de París exige que las emisiones se reduzcan cerca del 50% en los próximos 10 años.
El cambio climático aumentará las muertes de niños en África por calor
El cambio climático ya ha incrementado las temperaturas globales y, en particular, las más extremas. Se trata de una tendencia que no se revertirá a menos que se consiga la neutralidad climática. En este sentido, el objetivo de los 1,5 grados del Acuerdo de París exige que las emisiones se reduzcan cerca del 50 % en los próximos 10 años.
African children at risk of heat related deaths amid climate change
Regional NewsAfricaIndustry SectorsEnergy EfficiencyFinance and PolicyResearch and DevelopmentFeatures/Analysis by Cathryn Birch, John Marsham and Sarah Chapman Climate change has already increased global temperatures, greatly increasing extremes. This will continue unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to net-zero. The 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement requires emissions reductions of around 50% in the next 10 years. Newborn babies are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures.
Climate change will cause more African children to die from hot weather
Climate change has already increased global temperatures, greatly increasing extremes. This will continue unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to “net-zero”. The 1.5 degrees Celsius target of the Paris Agreement requires emissions reductions of around 50 per cent in the next 10 years. Newborn babies are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures. They have a limited ability to thermoregulate — or control their body temperature — and can easily become dangerously hot or cold.
Climate change will cause more African children to die from hot weather
Climate change has already increased global temperatures, greatly increasing extremes. This will continue unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to “net-zero”. The 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement requires emissions reductions of around 50% in the next 10 years. Newborn babies are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures. They have a limited ability to thermoregulate – or control their body temperature – and can easily become dangerously hot or cold.
The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation
1 INTRODUCTION The severe societal impacts of droughts and floods in East Africa are well documented in the media and scientific literature (Kilavi et al., 2018). Floods can lead to the spreading of water-borne diseases, as well as damage infrastructure and crops (ACAPS, 2018; Kilavi et al., 2018; The Guardian, 2018).
The interaction of moist convection and mid‐level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon
1 Introduction The Indian monsoon affects the lives of more than a billion people in South Asia and supplies around 80% of the annual rainfall total between June and September. The largely agricultural society is highly dependent on monsoon rains and is very sensitive to any variation in their timing, intensity and duration. This is particularly true of the monsoon onset, since its timing in relation to the sowing of crops is crucial for their survival.
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