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Articles by Charbel Kadib
Gloomier RBA outlook sheds light on rate rationale
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has published it statement on monetary policy following its decision to its tightening cycle on 7 November. The RBA actioned its 13th hike to the cash rate since commencing its tightening cycle in May 2022, taking the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent. The lift followed evidence of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, with both headline and core inflation up 1.2 per cent over the September quarter – 30 bps above the RBA’s projection.
Fed fears job not done, ‘will not hesitate’ to hike
Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has used an address to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stress there’s a “long way to go” in the fight to return inflation to the 2 per cent target. The Fed has lifted the funds rate by a cumulative 525 bps since commencing its tightening cycle in early 2022 but has opted to leave rates on hold following its last two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Oil prices plunge from annual peak as demand softens
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54259-oil-prices-slip-to-four-month-low-as-demand-softens 09 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Crude oil prices have fallen by just under 17 per cent from their October highs in response to a dip in global demand. Brent crude oil prices have plunged by just under 17 per cent from a peak of US$90 a barrel (bbl) in October to US$75 – the lowest since late July.
Equities tame, bond yields slip as latest rate hike sinks in
The All Ordinaries Index rose just 0.23 per cent on Wednesday (8 November), weighed down by some of Australia’s largest companies listed on the S&P/ASX 200 index, which gained just 0.19 per cent. Mining heavyweights Rio Tinto and BHP lost over 2 per cent of their value while Fortescue Metals slipped 1.3 per cent. Australian 10-year bond yields were also flat, falling to as low as 4.58 per cent before returning to just over 4.6 per cent.
RBA makes Melbourne Cup Day rate call
The central bank has announced its much anticipated monetary policy decision following its November board meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has actioned its 13th hike to the official cash rate since commencing its tightening cycle in May 2022, lifting the official cash rate by 25bps to 4.35 per cent. The November decision follows four consecutive hold verdicts in July, August, September, and October.
RBA makes Melbourne Cup Day rate call
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54242-rba-makes-melbourne-cup-day-rate-call 07 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The central bank has announced its much anticipated monetary policy decision following its November board meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has actioned its thirteenth hike to the official cash rate since commencing its tightening cycle in May 2022, lifting the official cash rate by 25bps to 4.35 per cent.
Inflation gauge throws Melbourne Cup Day curve ball
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54234-inflation-gauge-throws-melbourne-cup-day-curve-ball 06 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The latest inflation indicator has pointed to a marked decline in cost pressures ahead of the Reserve Bank’s widely anticipated hike to the cash rate.
US equities rally as job market cools
According to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the US unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 3.9 per cent in October. This was despite approximately 150,000 Americans entering the job market, albeit well below consensus expectations of 180,000. The labour participation rate also fell, down from 62.8 per cent to 62.7 per cent.
Markets bet on Melbourne Cup Day hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to resume its monetary policy tightening cycle at its upcoming board meeting on Melbourne Cup Day (Tuesday, 7 November). Markets are pricing in a 25 bps hike, which would take the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent and the cumulative size of its tightening to 425 bps since the cycle commenced in May 2022.
Household spending rises but discretionary spending softens
Household spending increased 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to 30 September 2023, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The rise was underpinned by a spike in services spending, which increased 9.6 per cent, driven by an 18.4 per cent increase in transport spending. According to Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, the increase in transport spending contributed to a 9.2 per cent rise in spending on non-discretionary goods and services.
Schroders bearish on shares as ‘age of scarcity’ looms
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54216-schroders-bearish-on-shares-as-age-of-scarcity-looms 02 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Australian and global equities markets are tipped to continue underperforming over the near-medium term as economies grapple with inflation volatility, according to Schroders. Following a dire 2022, share markets rebounded in early 2023 amid hopes of a short and sharp battle to quell inflation.
Fed takes dovish turn, halts hiking cycle
02 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link US equities markets bounced following the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy call. The US Federal Reserve maintained a funds rate of 5.25–5.5 per cent at its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday (1 November). This was the second consecutive FOMC pause verdict since the commencement of a monetary policy tightening cycle in March 2022, which involved 500 bps in cumulative rate hikes.
‘We’re no basket case’: Former chair backs ASIC record
Giving the corporate watchdog “unlimited resources” or “doubling” its budget would be unwise, the former chair has told the Senate as part of a probe into its enforcement regime. Appearing before the Senate economics references committee on Wednesday (1 November), former chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) Anthony D’Aloisio AM defended the regulator’s enforcement framework.
‘Extraordinary’ property tailwinds to persist: CBA, AMP
National home values are now just 0.5 per cent below their peak after rising for a ninth consecutive month, the latest CoreLogic data has revealed. Home values increased 0.9 per cent in October following a 0.7 per cent increase in September, underpinned by 0.9 per cent price growth across Australia’s capital cities.
‘We’re no basket case’: Former chair backs ASIC record
https://www.investordaily.com.au/regulation/54208-former-asic-chair-backs-status-quo-amid-probe-into-enforcement-mandate 01 November 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Giving the corporate watchdog “unlimited resources” or “doubling” its budget would be unwise, the former chair has told the Senate as part of a probe into its enforcement regime.
Local gold demand softens ahead of price surge
The gold price averaged US$1,928 per ounce over the three months to 30 September 2023, which, according to the latest analysis from the World Gold Council, was just 2 per cent below the record high of the previous quarter. The council attributed the Q3 spike to “historic” buying from the world’s central banks as they continue to hedge against persistent inflationary pressures.
Investment funds pose ‘procyclical’ threat to stability: RBA
31 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The burgeoning international asset management industry has been tagged among a group of non-systemic entities posing “procyclicality” risks to financial stability. High-profile banking collapses in the United States and Europe earlier this year brought to light new challenges threatening to undermine the stability of the global financial system.
Gold, oil, bonds rally as equities slump continues
30 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Risk aversion continues to dominate the outlook for investment markets as geopolitical tensions simmer and monetary policy expectations evolve. The gold price surged to near-record heights, rising to US$2,002 amid renewed fears of an escalation in the Israel–Hamas conflict as Israeli forces prepare a ground assault.
Population ‘shock’ threatens inflation outlook: HSBC
Since the unwinding of COVID-era restrictions on immigration, Australia’s population has expanded well beyond the historical average. According to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia’s population grew 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to 31 March 2023, rising to 26.5 million. Net overseas migration accounted for approximately 81 per cent of the growth, with the total population bolstered by 454,400 – driven by approximately 681,000 new arrivals.
US GDP, CPI prints rekindle hopes of a soft landing
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54182-us-gdp-cpi-prints-rekindle-hopes-of-a-soft-landing 27 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The latest economic data out of the United States has eased concerns over a looming recession but it’s not all good news for the US economy.
Shares at ‘high risk’ as Australian recession fears resurface
Australian equities have continued to underperform following a strong start to 2023, with the All Ordinaries Index down 1.6 per cent in the year-to-date. Since peaking in February, the All Ords has lost 9.7 per cent of its value. More recently, equities have been impacted by surging bond yields, fears of a longer-than-expected monetary policy tightening cycle from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), a slower economic recovery in China, and the flare-up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
‘Wary’ Bullock concedes ‘we might need to go again’
26 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The Reserve Bank governor has reacted to the surprise inflation print, which has solidified expectations of a hike to the cash rate next month. Appearing before the Senate economics legislation committee on Thursday (26 October), governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Michele Bullock said she was not surprised by the latest reacceleration in inflationary pressures.
REITs slip to new lows but tipped to rebound
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54173-reits-slip-to-new-lows-but-tipped-to-rebound 26 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Higher bond yields and a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook are weighing on valuations of the REIT market, but some observers are anticipating a strong recovery.
RBA set to resume rate hiking cycle
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54172-rba-set-to-resume-rate-hiking-cycle 25 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The central bank is expected to lift the cash rate at its next monetary policy board meeting in response to a setback in the fight against inflation. Both headline and trimmed mean inflation rose 1.2 per cent over the three months to 30 September (Q3), according to the latest print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Macro outlook ‘bad news’ for US equities: BlackRock
After a solid start to the year, global equities markets have been plagued by an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic outlook. Banking stress rattled markets earlier this year with investors fearing the worst following the collapse of three US banks and European giant Credit Suisse. Confidence was slowly restored half-way through the year, prompting a strong equity market recovery. But this was short-lived.
Bond yields surge, some gains to endure: Oxford Economics
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54161-oxford-economics-upgrades-bond-yield-outlook 24 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Long-term yields would likely retain more of their recent gains than initially anticipated, Oxford Economics has claimed, following the latest spike in the bond market.
US financial sector flags commercial real estate risks
The US Federal Reserve has published its latest Financial Stability Report, which includes the findings of a survey of 25 industry stakeholders, aimed at gauging perceptions of risk to the outlook.
Equities slip as rate hike risks loom
Australian and global equities markets have priced-in further monetary policy tightening from the world’s central banks amid mounting concerns over a drawn-out battle to return inflation to target. The S&P/ASX 200 lost just under 2 per cent of its value last week, and opened trading on Monday (23 October) 56 points lower. Across US share markets over the past week, the Dow Jones index fell 1.6 per cent, the S&P 500 slipped 2.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq slid 3.2 per cent.
Sticky inflation to delay rate relief: CBA
The Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts for global monetary policy in a new analysis issued on Friday (20 October) in response to the latest economic indicators, which suggest the fight to quell inflation may endure beyond initial expectations. The bank had forecast cuts to the official cash rate in Australia by March next year but has now pushed back relief to June 2024. “Inflation is retreating but remains too high. Services inflation in particular is proving sticky,” CBA observed.
Jobs print sends mixed signal, clouds rate outlook
19 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Conflicting signals from the latest labour market data have cast an added layer of uncertainty over the Reserve Bank’s next monetary policy move. According to the latest jobs print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate fell in September, from 3.7 per cent to a near-record low of 3.6 per cent.
Oil, gold prices rally as geopolitical tensions mount
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54136-oil-gold-prices-rally-as-geopolitical-tensions-mount 19 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link An escalation in tensions in the Middle East has rekindled energy supply fears and heightened global economic uncertainty, spurring a surge in both the price of oil and gold.
Bond yields rise, equities dip as US economy signals strength
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54131-bond-yields-rise-equities-dip-as-us-economy-signals-strength 18 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales growth in the United States has shifted interest rate expectations yet again, prompting markets to reassess the outlook for fixed income and equities.
Bullock ‘surprised’ by property rebound, flags inflation risk
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54126-bullock-surprised-by-property-rebound-flags-inflation-risk 18 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The Reserve Bank governor has warned that the resurgent residential property market could slow progress to the inflation target. Michele Bullock, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), has flagged risks associated with the rapid recovery in the residential property market over the past nine months.
Rate hike risks ‘rising’ as RBA takes hawkish turn
17 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The central bank’s upcoming monetary policy board meeting is “live again”, with newly released minutes suggesting flagging a “low tolerance” for slower progress towards the inflation target.
Big banks put through new stress test
https://www.investordaily.com.au/regulation/54096-big-banks-put-through-new-stress-test 12 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The prudential regulator is set to release the results of a new stress test assessing the stability of the banking sector following a shock to the global banking system earlier this year.
HSBC tips sustained consumer spending ‘squeeze’
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54095-hsbc-tips-sustained-consumer-spending-squeeze 12 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link An extended period of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, and a heavier tax burden will likely underpin a prolonged drag on household consumption growth, according to HSBC’s chief economist.
US equities buoyed by dovish Fed remarks
US share markets bounced and bond yields dipped following the latest remarks from a US Federal Reserve official, who suggested further hikes to the funds rate may no longer be necessary in the fight to quell inflationary pressures.
IMF still ‘optimistic’ despite downgrade to global outlook
The International Monetary Fund has retained its baseline global growth projection for 2023 at 3 per cent – well below the historical average of 3.8 per cent – but has downgraded its forecast for the coming year from 3 per cent to 2.9 per cent. The 2024 revision is underpinned by weaker growth expectations across emerging markets, now tipped to expand to 4 per cent, down from 4.1 per cent.
ACCC greenlights Origin Energy takeover
Origin Energy’s share price rose 4 per cent on Tuesday (10 October) after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) authorised its reported $18.7 billion acquisition by a global energy consortium made up of Canada-based Brookfield and US-based MidOcean. The ACCC conceded it remains unconvinced the deal would not “substantially lessen competition”, but claimed these risks are outweighed by the potential benefits for the renewable energy transition.
Investors urged to ‘stay level-headed’ as headwinds mount
Islamist group Hamas’ attack on Israel over the weekend has stoked fears of market tumult, with a 4 per cent spike in crude oil prices threatening to exacerbate inflationary pressures – as they did following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gold prices have also continued to regain value following a sharp decline in late September, rising to as high as US$1,861 per ounce. However, bond and equities markets have remained largely stable, with the S&P/ASX 200 up over the past week.
Surprise payroll spike feeds Fed hike fears
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54072-surprise-payroll-spike-feeds-fed-hike-fears 09 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link A “blowout” in US payroll jobs over the month of September has heightened the risk of another hike to interest rates. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported a surprise upswing in payroll employment, up 336,000 in September, well above market expectations (170,000).
‘War risk premium’ lifts oil prices
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54073-oil-prices-surge-as-geopolitical-tensions-flare 09 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Oil prices have ticked up yet again following the sudden launch of a terrorist attack against Israel, adding to headwinds in the battle against inflation.
Gold rush persists as economy lags
06 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings, fuelling speculation of a rebound ahead of a global economic slowdown. According to new research from the World Gold Council, central banks added approximately 77 tonnes of gold to their reserves over the month of August, up 38 per cent from July.
RBA flags triple-pronged risks to financial stability
06 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Global financial stability risks are “elevated”, according to the Reserve Bank, with the Chinese property market named among three main headwinds. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its latest assessment of financial stability risks, acknowledging mounting uncertainty in the global economy and the threat to Australia.
Chinese slump ‘worrying’ but not all doom and gloom
05 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The economic slowdown in China is tipped to constrain Australia’s GDP growth over the forward estimates, but it won’t be “as bad as many fear”, according to one senior economist.
Uranium prices soar as policymakers go nuclear
https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/54057-uranium-prices-soar-as-policymakers-go-nuclear 05 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Investors are flocking to uranium as the nuclear power debate resurfaces across the globe, including in Australia. The global push to reduce carbon emissions has renewed interest in nuclear power as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels.
AI not a productivity saviour: Oxford Economics
Private sector investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has grown exponentially in recent years amid the emergence of breakthrough technologies like ChatGPT. According to Goldman Sachs Economics Research, the global value of private investment in AI grew approximately 130 per cent in just three years, from US$48 billion (AU$76 billion) in 2020 to US$110 billion (AU$174 billion) in 2023.
Bullock’s RBA issues cash rate call
All four major banks and AMP had tipped a pause, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans going as far as claiming a hold was certain. Mr Evans said the RBA typically assumes a conservative posture ahead of the release of the quarterly inflation print.
RBA tempers hawkishness as rate hike risks heighten
03 October 2023 By Charbel Kadib 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link The Reserve Bank has held back from adopting a more hawkish monetary policy posture despite evidence of resurgent inflation. The official cash rate was left on hold at 4.1 per cent following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy board meeting on Tuesday (3 October) – the fourth consecutive hold following 400 bps of cumulative tightening since May 2022.
New RBA chair reports first rate decision
New RBA chair Michele Bullock has led the central bank's cash rate deliberation for the first time. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the official cash rate on hold at 4.1 per cent for the fourth consecutive month — in line with market expectations. All four major banks and AMP had tipped a pause, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans going as far as claiming a hold was “certain”.
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