Chuixiang Yi

Abstract Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly in extent, thickness, and albedo, yet a quantitative observational measure of its resilience remains elusive. Here, we introduce a resilience potential framework that links a reduced Arctic surface energy balance to an effective potential whose curvature and barrier structure provide physically interpretable stability diagnostics.

Conflicts of Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Data Availability Statement The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Zenodo at https://zenodo.org/records/18008024. FLUXNET2015 is available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet2015-dataset/ (February 2020 release). AmeriFlux is available at https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/ (version 3–5). ICOS is available at https://doi.org/10.18160/2G60-ZHAK.

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem respiration increases exponentially with temperature, constituting a positive feedback loop accelerating global warming. However, the response of ecosystem respiration to temperature strongly depends on water availability, yet where and when the water effects are important, is presently poorly constrained, introducing uncertainties in climate–carbon cycle feedback projections.