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Articles by Clayton Seigle
What a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Means for Energy and Beyond
Pause, Not Peace: The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on Borrowed Time Raad Alkadiri, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy Security and Climate Change Program This is a deal President Donald Trump wanted to make, and one Iran was happy to take given the security and financial concessions on offer. But it is not a peace settlement. It is an extended ceasefire, and it remains hostage to the very dynamics that drew the United States and Iran into conflict in the first place.
Banning Gasoline Exports Will Harm U.S. Energy Security
The political distress from higher gasoline and diesel prices is palpable, but not yet at crisis levels. As of June 2, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline stands at $4.29 per gallon, diesel at $5.43—compared to $2.94 and $3.81, respectively, before the war began. After surging nearly 50 percent during the first six weeks of the war, gasoline prices plateaued and have traded sideways since mid-April, even ticking a bit lower in late May.
How to Interpret Wartime Oil Prices
Since the war in Iran started on February 28, oil prices have moved considerably higher as the market has been forced to cope with an unprecedented supply disruption—more than 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) missing from global markets for more than 50 days. Oil prices have exhibited unusual volatility during this period, surging on reports of damage to infrastructure and shipping, and receding with news about diplomatic progress toward ending the war.
What’s Next for Oil Markets After the Ceasefire Agreement?
The ceasefire announced by President Trump on April 7 implicitly acknowledges Iran’s newfound control over Gulf energy flows—a strategic challenge for oil market stability and the interests of Gulf Arab exporting countries. The United States has halted the military campaign it started six weeks ago with Tehran poised to call the shots on oil and gas exports.
Blockade Iranâs Oil
Como medida preventiva ante una denuncia efectuada por una asociación que gestiona los derechos de propiedad intelectual de autores y editores, nos hemos visto obligados a inhabilitar de forma temporal el acceso a los contenidos.
This Should Be Trump’s Next Move With Iran Original
You have been granted access, use your keyboard to continue reading. Guest Essay March 25, 2026 Credit...Sedat Suna/Getty Images After more than three weeks of open warfare, Iran effectively controls the Persian Gulf. The country’s two-pronged attack against gulf commercial shipping and critical infrastructure has cut off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, leaving only Iranian oil to make it out.
The Iran Conflict Is Sending Oil Prices Soaring—What Happens Next?
Global energy markets began the second week of the Mideast Gulf war with a historic price spike as energy exports from the region remained idle and fighting intensified among Iran, Israel, the United States, and Gulf nations. This Critical Questions examines the stakes for world energy markets and some of the proposed measures to address the looming oil and gas shortfall.
If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios | Iraq Business News
By on in Iraq Industry & Trade News, Iraq Oil & Gas News, Security By Clayton Seigle, for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.
If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios
Crude oil prices have fluctuated in recent days along with headlines about potential military strikes against Iran, as a second round of indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives concluded on February 17 without resolving underlying disputes. While international benchmark Brent crude prices fell toward $67 on February 17, markets are still showing increased risk against the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s predicted $58 Brent average for 2026.
A Credible Path to Political Stability Is Indispensable for Trump’s Venezuela Oil Aspirations
Following a three-week U.S. naval quarantine that has halted most of Venezuela’s oil exports, the Trump administration apprehended Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and declared that the United States is now running Venezuela. President Trump said that U.S. oil companies would invest billions of dollars to rejuvenate Venezuela’s dilapidated oil industry, with proceeds used to pay back those investments, reimburse prior American claims, and support the people of Venezuela.
Why Did the United States Seize a Venezuelan Oil Shipment?
On December 10, President Trump announced that U.S. forces seized Skipper, a sanctioned oil tanker transporting Venezuelan oil. The following questions examine the implications of this seizure for geopolitics and global energy security. Q1: Why did U.S. forces seize Skipper? A1: Skipper belongs to the so-called shadow fleet, a grouping of about 1,000 oil tankers that carry oil exports from sanctioned countries, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, to circumvent sanctions and price caps.
The Gloves Are Still On: Why Washington’s Newest Oil Sanctions Won’t Be Enough to Pressure Putin
In the week since the Trump administration announced blocking sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil, optimism has abounded for a meaningful crackdown that will pressure President Putin to end his war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, however, these new sanctions probably won’t be enough to move Moscow toward compromise, as the Kremlin knows it only needs to outlast an initial commercial and marketing challenge before persistent oil trading patterns resume.
The Russia Oil Surcharge: Anticipating the Benefits and Challenges
This Commentary builds on the previously proposed surcharge mechanism designed to drive Russian oil revenues lower. In short, the U.S. government would impose a fee on Russia’s oil customers, like India, in exchange for waiving strong new secondary tariffs.
Pressure at the Pump: Ukraine Resumes Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries
Ukraine resumed its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries last weekend, the latest salvo in a nearly 18-month military campaign to crimp Russian fuel supplies. The attacks are expected to further increase Russian retail gasoline prices, which are already nearing record highs, though not to a politically untenable level for President Putin.
To Hit Russia Hard and Support Ukraine, Capture the Oil Discount
Last week, President Trump announced renewed and expanded transfers of weapons to Ukraine in support of its defense against Russia. As Putin has grown more aggressive, despite the United States pushing for a ceasefire, the president has hinted at the need to dial up the pressure on Russia.
How War with Iran Could Disrupt Energy Exports at the Strait of Hormuz
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is prompting fresh concerns about global energy security. With oil prices rapidly fluctuating in response to dynamic events, markets are attempting to quantify the risks of oil and gas supply disruptions. All eyes are once again focused on the Middle East and Gulf energy exports. Q1: What’s the worst-case scenario for energy security as the fighting in the Middle East escalates?
Too Soon to Rule Out Middle East Energy Disruption
The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically during the weekend of June 14–15, with both sides attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, yet oil prices have since receded on the expectation that no major supply disruption will take place. But it is too soon to rule out a Middle East energy supply crunch. The most likely scenario for disruption, should one occur, is an Israeli first strike on Iranian exports that provokes retaliation by Tehran against wider Gulf region energy flows.
Experts React: Energy Policy in the Reconciliation Debate
This week, committees in the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled their initial legislation responding to instructions in the fiscal year 2025 budget resolution. As budget reconciliation has evolved into a key procedural mechanism for U.S. policymaking, these bills propose changes to energy subsidies, strategic reserves management, and low-carbon innovation that will affect the energy landscape in the United States.
With Extra Oil, Trump Already Has His Big Saudi Win
President Trump’s two-day visit to Saudi Arabia is expected to focus on bilateral deals, including a Saudi pledge to invest $600 billion in the United States. Cooperation on arms deals and a civil nuclear program for Riyadh are said to be on the agenda. Trump and his host, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will surely also discuss regional hot spots, including Gaza, Yemen, and Iran.
Trade War Reduces Washington’s Leverage on Iranian Oil Exports
On May 1, President Trump announced in a three-sentence Truth Social post that any country or person that buys Iranian oil or petrochemicals will immediately be “subject to . . .
Carrots, Sticks, and Sledgehammers
Since his second term began on January 20, 2025, President Trump has clearly signaled a desire for lower oil prices. Executive orders, including “Unleashing American Energy,” as well as his remarks to the Davos World Economic Forum audience on January 23, outline Trump’s case for bringing down the price of oil.
Russian Oil Sanctions Demand Persistence
The potent new U.S. sanctions announced last week against Russian oil interests will likely succeed in the short term by curbing Moscow’s oil export volumes and revenues. To avoid running afoul of the U.S. Department of Treasury, Indian and Chinese buyers will sharply curtail their purchases of Russian crude oil and scramble to secure cargoes from alternative suppliers.
Clayton Seigle
Clayton Seigle is a senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and holds the James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics. An experienced energy industry analyst with specialization in market intelligence and political risk, Clay provides policymakers and corporate leaders with thought leadership and strategic insights to navigate regional and global energy security challenges.
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