D. Sean Barnett

Considering historical scenarios that are counter to the facts—how things “might have been”— is a natural human tendency. History cannot be relived or rerun as one might conduct laboratory experiments in the physical sciences. However, we can use history to help us understand what happened (and why) as a starting point for considering what might have occurred if things had turned out differently.

History cannot be relived or rerun as one might conduct laboratory experiments in the physical sciences. However, we can use history to help us understand what happened (and why) as a starting point for considering what might have occurred if things had turned out differently. Known as counterfactual historical analysis or alternative history, this approach allows us to use our imaginations to create laboratories of the mind, testing inputs to seek alternative results.

Research Questions Why has the Russian invasion of Ukraine stumbled so significantly? What are the possibilities for the ultimate outcome in Russia's attempt to challenge a Ukrainian regime? Russia invaded Ukraine on February 22, 2022, on multiple fronts to establish Russian dominion on several provinces where separatist movements had contested Ukrainian government control.