Dan Baer
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Articles by Dan Baer
Mission over Model: What Might AI Mean for an Organization Like Carnegie?
Most professionals I know—whatever their field—appear to me today to be in a kind of collective flinch, as if anticipating a painful blow. Even as increasing numbers are experimenting with the use of artificial intelligence in their work, some with genuine enthusiasm, there is a premonition that the real changes to come, including in their own work lives, will be systemic and seismic, and remain unpredictable and undefined.
Unstrategic Ambiguity: Trump’s Erratic Approach Leaves Europe Guessing
Like other major powers, the United States has long depended on strategic ambiguity, combined with credible military force, to deter its adversaries. The notion that it is helpful to keep an adversary guessing in order to encourage caution and modesty seems relatively straightforward, but it comes with costs. It might also cause an adversary to become anxious, and an anxious adversary might preempt imagined actions or misinterpret signals or behaviors.
Is Europe Ready to Be Geopolitical?
Sophia Besch, Dan Baer, and Rosa Balfour tackle the key questions about the future of Europe. By Sophia Besch, Dan Baer, Rosa Balfour Published on Nov 12, 2025 Subscribe on Project Moving beyond rhetoric that calls for Brussels to face its challenges, the Europe Head-to-Head project proposes a continent-wide debate on what the EU must do to meet the moment, navigating the increasingly difficult global landscape to deliver for its citizens.
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I don’t always get out of the house, but when I do, I dive into the latest AI. Today was ChatGPT Atlas, and I have 3 HR use cases to share. My focus time to experiment and try new tools has been limited. And, it hurts my forever-learning soul. But today, our new nanny for the twins started! So, I took myself out of the house to a local coffee shop. I downloaded ChatGPT Atlas. And, I dove in.
House of the week: A top-floor corner penthouse in Fishtown for $599,999
Paul Carocciolo fell in love with the Fishtown building as soon as he saw it in 2013. As a child he had imagined living in an industrial loft based on the 1992 film Wayne’s World. And he could see the contrast between the building where he had been living in Fairmount, a narrow rowhouse. “It was light, spacious and open,” he said. So for four years he rented there, and in 2018 he bought a unit.
Denying Ukraine the Support It Needs Will Raise the Cost of U.S. Readiness
The inability of the U.S. Congress in recent months to pass the supplemental funding bill aimed at sustaining U.S. support for Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia’s brutal invasion is not the only example of the dysfunction that currently characterizes the U.S. legislative branch, but it is among the most expensive. The costs to Ukraine are enormous and human.
Are South Africa-U.S. Relations at a Turning Point? A Conversation With Naledi Pandor
South Africa is the most industrialized country and the second-largest economy on the African continent. It is also the United States’ largest trade partner in Africa, even as it maintains strong relationships with both China and Russia. South Africa plays an important leadership role among African countries: it was the first African member of the BRICS group of emerging economies and is the sole African member state of G20.
February 24, Two Years Later
Two years ago, I quickly documented six reflections on the first day of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Tomorrow marks the beginning of the third year of that war—an unprovoked, unlawful, brutal assault on what was, before the war, a country of 40 million people. Over the past two years, political theorists, historians, and pundits have traded explanations for this tragedy—pruning and decorating one another’s theories like Christmas trees.
From AI to Drones: Governing Technology in an Age of Geopolitical Competition
The United States and China are engaged in a fierce contest to establish technological supremacy and set international norms in key domains, from AI to drones. The European Union has joined this race, too. But as Brussels commits to advancing trustworthy, values-based governance frameworks, it increasingly faces the challenges of growing state and corporate competition, rival regulatory frameworks, and inherent risks of dual-use technologies.
America’s Evolving Place in the World
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, the United States’ global influence continues to wane—amid deep political polarization at home and global geopolitical tensions that threaten Euro-Atlantic security. And yet, America can emerge stronger from the crises it faces. This will require forging a fairer and more inclusive society, investing in a modern, human-centered economy, and strengthening partnerships with friends and allies.
The Four Tests: What It Will Take to Keep America Strong and Good
With today’s fraught global and political climate, American hegemony is over and the assumption that America maintains its dominant status in global politics is waning. The divisions between us, economic changes driven by globalization and technology, as well as climate change, pandemics, and the resurgence of authoritarianism, make it difficult to be optimistic about America’s future.
Is Europe Aligned on China?
This Q&A was adapted from a Carnegie live event assessing China-EU relations one year into the war in Ukraine. It has been edited for clarity. Paul Haenle: China’s approach regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a cause of concern for many in Europe and appears to have caused China some reputational damage. French President Emmanuel Macron and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen both visited China.
Digital Authoritarianism: A Growing Threat
Today digital repression is increasingly used as a means for autocratic leaders who wish to suppress societal discourse and democratic aspirations. Russia deploys digital tools to assert control over citizens and censor voices opposing the War on Ukraine, while China and Iran go to great lengths to deploy advanced surveillance and censorship to quell dissent within their borders.
What to Expect at COP27
Last month, a new United Nations report stated that countries are failing to meet their climate pledges, and warming is likely to far exceed the initial 1.5 degree Celsius target set in 2015. Before the COP27 climate conference in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt, begins, Carnegie experts gathered to discuss what to expect from the conference and what they hope to see happen. Below is a transcript of the event. It has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Advancing the Clean Energy Transition in 2023: A Conversation With Assistant Secretary Pyatt
As we begin 2023, the Biden administration is working to accelerate the clean energy transition, address global supply chain shocks, and counter Russia’s weaponization of energy—which has produced global energy supply distortions. The United States is also working with G7+ allies to repair, support, and bolster Ukraine’s energy sector.
Let’s Place Sustainability and Climate Change at the Heart of International Policy
Headlines from around the world serve as a dire chronicle that long-standing predictions rooted in careful scientific analysis have become a reality: the planet is in an increasingly dire set of climate and ecological crises—raising fundamental questions about sustainability, governance, geopolitics, and security. India just experienced a record-breaking heat wave. Corn crops in middle America are facing an increasingly constrained growing season. Germany suffered devastating floods.
“No One Is Wearing Ties in Kyiv These Days”
As summer arrives in Kyiv, the city’s inhabitants seem to breathe in unison: an inhale of quiet defiance and an exhale of grief laced with worry. The city’s sculptures suffocate under sandbags meant to protect them from air strikes. Czech hedgehogs—the tank traps that look like giant playing jacks—are still gathered at the ready in the Maidan.
Advancing Inclusive LGBTQI+ Citizenship Globally
A central theme of the Summit for Democracy is that inclusive democracies—ones that respect the human rights of all marginalized communities—deliver important dividends for their citizens. With anti-gender and anti-LGBTQI+ movements surging within broader anti-democratic currents around the world, how can the United States and other concerned actors push back against such movements and advance the goal of inclusive democracy globally?
Six Reflections on the First Day of Russia’s War in Ukraine
The most interesting and useful observations on crime and punishment don’t arise in the midst of watching a murder. And so, while the world has no choice but to continue to attempt to respond in real time to the horror of a new war in Europe, we also know that the significance of what is unfolding will settle slowly over time, and that it’s reasonable to be suspicious of those who claim to see clearly the contours of the new world in which we now find ourselves.
Eastern Ukraine and the role of the international community
The Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) invites you to a discussion about eastern Ukraine and the role of the international community, with particular focus on the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission. Since the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014, the situation in eastern Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula remains alarming.
The Future of American Innovation: A Conversation With Lina Khan
Since the 1940s, the United States has led the world on innovation and on developing new technologies, industries, and business models, securing its position as a global superpower. However, in the face of significant national security challenges and an intensifying global technology race, the U.S. position faces challenges. How can American companies keep pace with their international counterparts?
Good Dog: Saying Goodbye to a Pet During COVID
^ I Support Local Community Journalism Support the independent voice of Denver and help keep the future of Westword free. For dog lovers, one of the silver linings of the coronavirus pandemic has been witnessing the swelling of our ranks. What began as a trickle last spring became a torrent in summer and fall: dog adoptions and puppy pictures. On Twitter I mostly follow journalists, foreign policy experts, and current or former government officials.
Still the Indispensable Partnership - Working With the Biden Administration: Opportunities for the EU
Table of Contents The essays collected here have at least one obvious consistency: they are all bursting at their seams with ideas. On any given topic or issue area there is a robust agenda for potential collaboration between Europeans and the new administration in the United States.
Reimagining Transatlantic Relations
Table of Contents As we go to press on the eve of the 2020 U.S. elections, both Americans and Europeans are understandably focused on whether January 20, 2021, will be the beginning of a second term for President Donald Trump or the beginning of a new administration led by Joe Biden. Neither man is an unknown.
Europe and China’s ‘Virtual Summit’
Angela Merkel had hoped to use the German presidency of the EU to host an historic EU-China Summit this month in Leipzig, with Xi Jinping and 27 European heads of state in attendance. Thanks to COVID, the virtual meeting that took place this week was a far less grand affair. But given a thorny agenda and the backdrop of Europe’s rapidly deteriorating public opinion of China, the less-flashy format perhaps better suited the moment.
How Will China Shape Global Governance?
Public health is, in an ironic way, a well-suited topic to start a discussion about Chinese involvement in global governance, despite certain strains in media sentiment in both China and the United States over COVID-19. Personal hygiene, communal sanitation, nutrition, timely care of mild illnesses, among other things, make up the foundation of a person’s underlying health conditions.
The China Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama
U.S.-China relations and East Asian affairs have evolved significantly over the last two decades. Nonetheless, many of the same questions continue to challenge policymakers in Washington. How should the United States grapple with a rising China? How should it engage militarily and economically in Asia? How does China factor into the United States’ Asia policy? In a new book, Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W.
The Shocking ‘Coronavirus Coup’ in Hungary Was a Wake-Up Call
On Monday, the Hungarian parliament passed a coronavirus bill that gave Prime Minister Viktor Orban the power to rule by decree, with no end date, and established chilling new penalties on speech and on those who violate quarantine. The draft legislation had been released a week earlier and drew criticism from civil society groups and the Council of Europe’s human rights chief, Dunja Mijatovic, among others.
Xi Jinping May Welcome Trump’s Racism
The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in a new low-point for the already strained relationship between the U.S. and China—and it could get worse in the months ahead as the toll rises and there is more urgency to assign blame. At the White House press conference on Thursday, President Trump repeated his criticism of China for having kept the virus secret after it was first discovered in Hubei province, and argued that if it hadn’t done so the virus could have been contained there.
China-EU Relations One Year into the Ukraine War
As the war in Ukraine drags on, China-EU relations face mounting uncertainties. Beijing has attempted to tread a fine line between maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia, while mitigating downward pressure on relations with the European Union. China’s 12-point position paper is the latest sign of Beijing’s attempt to portray itself as a neutral party to the conflict in Ukraine.
Unpacking Italy's Political Future
On July 20, Italy’s government collapsed after right-wing lawmakers staged a walkout from a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Mario Draghi. As elections approach in less than ten days, the right-wing Fratelli d’Italia led by Giorgia Meloni is widely expected to seize the premiership, in a coalition including other parties on the Italian right with well known links to Russia. What does a Meloni-led government look like for Italy and for Europe as a whole?
Digital Public Infrastructure: The Key to 21st Century Innovation and Growth
Understanding and designing reliable digital public infrastructure (DPI) is key to ensuring governments meet their development goals, transforming the ways we connect and work, while also helping society weather major global challenges, like the COVID-19 pandemic. But what does dependable DPI look like? And how can policymakers use it to promote innovation in their countries?
How Could Artificial Intelligence Change the World of Think Tanks?, with Dan Baer
Kristin Hayes: Hello, and welcome to Resources Radio, a weekly podcast from Resources for the Future (RFF). I’m your host, Kristin Hayes. My guest today is Daniel Baer, who’s the senior vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which I’ll just call Carnegie for shorthand today.
One Year On: Germany’s Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine
On 27 February 2022, three days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a set of transformative measures for Germany’s foreign and defense policy. One year on, to what extent has the war in Ukraine changed not only German politics and public opinion, but that of its allies? Looking ahead, how will the “Zeitenwende” impact relations with actors like Russia and China?
What to Watch for at COP27
On November 6, the global climate community will gather in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to kick off COP27, the United Nation’s flagship climate conference. A key goal of these conferences is for nations to put forward increasingly ambitious plans to cut emissions and limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, and this year’s COP is no different. However, this edition of the COP will put special emphasis on addressing the damage already done and making good on past promises.
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