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Articles by Dan Denning
BPR Week in Review: How to escape the madness
Earnings season…a Fed meeting…and rumors of a blown up hedge fund. It promises to be another big week on Wall Street. Things are getting creepy. BPR’s paid subscribers should be sure to check out Investment Director Tom Dyson’s note earlier this week on closing out a trade (see below).
Creepy October and the original CPI
Friday, October 16th, 2026
Borrow Now, Pay Later
Please note, we’re aware some Gmail users are not receiving the weekly market and research notes from Tom Dyson and Dan Denning. Substack is aware of the issue and working with Google to resolve it. It in the meantime, we’ll also send the weekly updates to our back-up email list to ensure you receive them. As always, all BPR communications are available at the website at www.bonnerprivateresearch.com Imagine not being able to live on $5.4 trillion a year.
BPR Week in Review: The ‘demon germ’ and stock market euphoria
Late in the history of the Soviet Empire, in a clandestine effort to destroy the entire civilian populations of the United States and its allies in Europe, it’s alleged scientists engineered a novel plague virus. Once deployed, the virus would wipe out everyone but leave the infrastructure of civilization intact. The mutant germ was based on the Yersinia Pestis bacterium which causes plague (there are three versions of plague: bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic). And the demon part?
The Davidson Earth Disaster Cycle
Greetings from the High Plains! The biggest and baddest financial disasters don’t fall from the sky. It’s not a geomagnetic excursion or crustal displacement or a coronal mass ejection that kills a bull market. It’s usually a ‘credit event’ that begins in a sector of the economy no one’s paying attention to, and then migrates its way, like an aggressive virus, to healthier, investment-grade companies and the rest of the economy. More on that below.
Intelligence Bust
Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
BPR Week in Review
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The Three Factor Problem
About seven weeks. That’s when we’ll know who controls the next Congress. And we’ll know if the IRGC has been trying to wait out the Trump Administration, keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and end the war on favorable terms. Seven weeks. Markets don’t have to stay idle until then. They won’t. They never do. In fact, today I’m going to look at a convergence of factors that suggest what five year total returns might be from today.
Trouble Behind, Trouble Ahead
‘America lost its way after 9/11,’ says Gerald Baker in the London Times. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost more than 7,000 American lives, hundreds of thousands of civilian ones and trillions of dollars, turning that surplus into a debt now above $40trn. Seeing the world’s sole superpower flounder for a decade against roadside bombs and Soviet-era rifles wrecked American self-esteem and drained Washington’s international authority.
BPR Week in Review: Pacing the Frontier
Dear Reader, Have the elite techbros that run US-based close-source AI popped their own bubble this week?
Private Briefing: The Future of Wealth
Are the Silicon Valley insiders who’ve built the closed-source American frontier models trying to scare the government into regulating them? Might they be exaggerating the threat from AI in order to ‘freeze’ the industry, restrict competition, and lock in high prices for the tokens (and even higher valuations for the intial public offerings they hope to make this year)? It kind of seemed like that was going this week.
Paper Bandwagon
Source: Bonner Private Research ‘Sell paper, buy stuff.’ —Tom Dyson We rise this morning to salute the great yin and yang of the financial world. Business Insider: Oil jumps above $100 a barrel as US-Iran fighting raises Strait of Hormuz disruption fears What to do? Buy the oil — the stuff? Or buy the oil company — the paper? In a nutshell, real stuff is calm, slow-moving and taciturn. It is useful. And practical. Down to earth. Paper is more volatile and voluble. It gives off new signals every day.
The Wine at the End of the Road
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House Divided: A Story of Tomorrow
Imagine a brief but violent civil war in the next twenty six months. A ‘benevolent dictator’ takes power as the war ends. He (or she) seizes on the national emergency to make sweeping economic and constitutional changes to America as we know it. Everything changes. A wealth tax is introduced. Social Security benefits are means tested (and the cap on taxable earnings is lifted from $184,500 to $1 million).
Collusion, Deception, Defection
Source: Grok Image Generator Dear Reader, The weekend started with a meme and ends as a nightmare. Yesterday it was kind of funny. Today it’s alarming. But how much should you worry about the ‘collusion, deception, and defection’ we’ve just learned about? The funny part was yesterday, August 29th. For all those who celebrate, that was the 29th anniversary of when Skynet became self-aware and initiated a nuclear war that wiped out most of humanity as we know it.
The Quality of Knowledge
Friday, August 28th, 2026
The Old Barkers’ Con
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addresses the press a the White House yetsterday. Source: Getty Images Last week, we were ambling along through BubbleLand, a giant amusement park where everything was fake or fraudulent... Ultimately, all designed to separate the plain people from their money. Come the weekend, the circus cycle didn’t let up. A village ‘fete’ took place nearby — drawing in hundreds of local people. A makeshift buffet served a long line of diners.
The Coming Global Monetary Reset
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A collision that cannot be avoided
Friday, August 14th, 2026
A trickle of disappointing profits
It took 14 years for the Nasdaq to make a new high after it peaked on March 31st, 2000. The big tech index fell 78.4% in 31 months. The riskier Nasdaq 100 fell 82.9% over the same time period; the definition of the The Big Loss. ‘They don’t take eyeballs at the bank. Those who value stocks by eyeballs should go be ophthalmologists, not stock analysts. There is no cyberworld where reach trumps profits.’ —Jim Cramer When money is too cheap...people tend to treat it like a stolen car.
Tickling the Dragon's Tail
Friday, August 7th, 2026 Laramie, Wyoming By Dan Denning Here we are, eighty-one years later, sandwiched between the anniversary of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima (August 6th, 1945) and three days later on Nagasaki (August 9th 1945). Japan announced its public surrender six days after the second bomb. The official surrender took place on September 2nd, 1945, on the deck of the USS Missouri, anchored in Tokyo Bay. What if Japan hadn’t surrendered?
Week in Review
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30 Years a Slave
Friday, July 31st, 2026
Marked for Extincition
“Just stop talking about it.” —Morgan Freeman, on how to get rid of racism In Anne Arundel county, Maryland, 1960, children slouched back to school in September as they always did. It was hot. And, as usual, the farm boys got an extra two weeks’ grace, to help bring the tobacco into the barn, before bending to readin’ and writin’ in the classroom. But this time it was different. There were three little black faces — girls — walking down a hallway that had never seen anything but white faces.
Gate of Tears: BPR Week in Review
You want to know something that didn’t make the news last week? The heads of Private Credit at BlackRock and Blackstone both resigned. For separate and personal reasons, of course. And it may not mean anything. But those are a couple of interesting ‘dots’ that may be connected. Why? Cast your mind back to the to the long hot summer of 2007. The Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies fund was in trouble.
How much time do we have?
Friday, July 24th, 2026
Where there's smoke
It looked like a scene from Hell. Charred skeletons of trees. Blackened grass. Burnt-out fields. And thick smoke. On the left were the gendarmes blocking a turn. Straight ahead was heavy smoke. Daily Times: Nearly 40,000 hectares of forests and vegetation have burned across France since the start of 2026, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said. The damage has already exceeded last year’s total…Nunez said the burned area has also surpassed the level recorded by this stage in 2022.
BPR Week in Review
Sunday, July 19th, 2026 Laramie, Wyoming By Dan Denning What’s going to be exhausted first: the barrels, the ballistic missiles, or the bombs? In our regular communications with paying subscribers, we’ve noted some artificial and some physical deadlines that might determine how long this military operation in Iran may last. The artificial deadlines are easy to skip. The War Powers Act authorizes the President to initiate military action and pursue it for 60 days without Congressional approval.
Miran Contra: Is the Trump Grand Strategy Working?
Ulysses conversing with Eumaeus, from Homer’s Odyssey. Source: Getty Images Prediction: Now that Christopher Nolan’s cinematic version of Homer’s Odyssey is in theaters, the ‘tomato meter’ on Rotten Tomatoes will plummet–below 75% by Monday and on its way to 50% by the end of the month. All the initial ratings, which drove the score up to 98% at one point, were critics who’d seen a screening before the public. Critics are generally elitist line-toers. The Crowd will now vote.
The Behavior of Analog Animals
“Another scorcher!” A neighbor drove up yesterday with an alarming report. “And this heat wave is not going to let up. It’s supposed to go on for all of next week.” We’ve become accustomed to life in Ireland. It rains most of the year. But for just a few weeks in the summertime, the sun shines...and the heat rises. “There’s nothing like an Irish summer,” he explained. “The weather can be gorgeous.
The Coming AI Black Friday
Source: US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report, July 2026 Happy statehood day Wyoming! On this day, July 10th, in 1890, Wyoming became the 44th State in the Union. Jubilee Days in Larimie at the moment. Big parade and pancake breakfast tomorrow. But nice work on becoming a state 136 years ago, Wyoming. President Benjamin Harrison admitted it. And as it turns out, there are some things we could learn from 1890 and President Harrison. More on that shortly.
BPR Week in Review
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The Reckoning Index
Happy 250th America! 🎆 🎇 🧨💣🇺🇲 And here’s to all those who celebrate liberty and the idea of America. Fire up the barbecue. Crack open a beer. Light up a sparkler. Enjoy! But don’t think any of the festivities this weekend will keep the coming reckoning at bay. Not gonna happen. In this week’s research note, I’ve compiled more evidence. But not just about valuations. Also about certain indicators that will help us narrow down the ‘when’. Before I get into them, check out the chart above.
Shooting the Generals
Wednesday, July 1st, 2026
No Limits
“Trump fundamentally changed how government works...A future president should have no hesitation in doing the same.”
Parting of the Waters: BPR Week in Review
Source: Wyoming Geological Survey Cruising down over Ontario, and then across Minnesota and parts of North Dakota and Wyoming into Denver yesterday, I thought about the first half of the year and the map above. Markets are cruising into the mid-point of the year and likely to be quiet this week in the build up to America’s big 250th birthday bash on Saturday, July 4th. Of course markets are under no obligation to take a vacation, so we’ll see. The map above shows a geographical oddity.
Friday, June 26th, 2026
BPR Week in Review: What AI Won't Do
Bigger than Japan? Bigger than the dot.com boom? The Nifty Fifty? Bigger, even, than the railroad boom of the 1800s? Well no. Not the last one. I’m referring to the chart above from Bank of America. It shows that 39% of the market cap of the S&P 500 is now in ‘AI Stocks.’ That puts this market bubble—what our Investment Director Tom Dyson calls The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever—firmly in the death zone where other bubbles have run out of oxygen/liquidity.
High Plains Drifting
Friday, June 19th, 2026
Another Merry Week
UFC Octagon Ring in front of the White House. Source: Getty Images Another merry week has clattered by. And what did we learn from it? Anything new? From Monday through Tuesday and on into Wednesday, we watched the assault on Iran gather its head of steam — and the oil market was flung about like a rag doll in the jaws of a puppy. The President vowed to hit the Iranians “very hard.” Why we were hitting them at all remained, as ever, a mystery wrapped in fog.
Power Up
What a day for a space dream. As epic bubbles go, this one’s been a doozy. And if the SpaceX IPO marks the symbolic (if not the actual) top of the AI/tech boom, well at least it’s made some cafeteria workers and janitors into millionaires. That’s more than Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren have ever done for American workers. The company began trading today at $135/share. It raised $75 billion at that price, for a market capitalization of $1.77 trillion.
Conquest, Loot, and Tribute
Here are a couple, almost contradictory, news stories. MSN: Gold hits yearly low despite recent reserve asset milestone And here’s the more important news. The India Times: ‘Gold now ranks as the world’s top reserve asset. According to World Gold Council data, global gold reserves are approaching $4 trillion. Treasury holdings total approximately $3.9 trillion. The last time central bank gold reserves topped Treasury holdings was in 1996.’ As to the first, we have no idea.
The Case for Killing Granny
Drift ice in the Arctic Ocean. Source: Getty Images ‘We’ve got a duty to die and get out of the way with all of our machines and artificial hearts and everything else like that and let the other society, our kids, build a reasonable life.’ —Dick Lamm (former Governor of Colorado) What should old people do? How should they live? When should they get out of the way? When should they die?
Follow the Money
Maybe you’ve seen the chart above. It shows that crossover point last year where central bank gold holdings became more valuable than official holdings of US Treasury bonds and bills and notes. Makes sense. Why? Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2018. The gold price is up roughly 240% in that time. Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022 and was quickly kicked out of SWIFT, the global payments system run/enforced by the US.
Prepare for Liftoff
NASA’s Artemis space craft prepares for liftoff in January of this year. Source: Getty Images But wait...hold on. Won’t the younger generations benefit from all the nifty tech improvements made in the last few years? Won’t they have self-driving cars? Won’t they have AI to tell them what to think...and help them avoid thinking altogether? Won’t they be able to live on Mars with all the comforts of Hoboken, thanks to one of Elon’s great rockets?
And the rockets' red glare
Blue Origin rocket blows up on the pad yesterday in Florida. ‘The rocket worked perfectly,’ Werner von Braun reportedly said. ‘Except for landing on the wrong planet.’ He was talking about the Nazi’s V-2 rocket, which terrorized London in the last year of World War II. After the war, and via Operation Paperclip, Von Braun would make his way to Alabama, where he began his long role in developing the US space program, including the famous Saturn V rocket that sent men to the moon.
Is Time on Your Side?
Boomers hold almost all of the stocks in the US…and most of the risk in the event of a crash. The latest news, Common Dreams: ‘Biggest Wealth Divide in Modern History’...Shocking Reality of US Economy Data released by the University of Michigan and Gallup this week showed US consumer sentiment cratering even as stock markets hit record highs. “Absolutely incredible,” commented Kobeissi Letter.
The Price of Glory
Well, how now, Dow? The big blue-chip index made a record intra-day AND closing high today. It went into the Memorial Day weekend strong, with a close at 50,579. But wait! In gold terms, the Dow is at 11.2. That’s higher than in the last few months. But it’s a long way off from the lows we expect it to make (under five, if past cycles are any indication). Below, we’ll look at broad money supply trends and total dollar-denominated liabilities in the global system…and what they mean for gold.
Discounting Default: BPR Week in Review
Uh oh. Don’t look now, but the yield on the 30-year US Treasury Bond is back over 5%. In the recent past, that’s been a warning signal from markets. But a warning for what? First, that there are serious doubts about the ability of the Fed to control inflation or Congress to control spending. Almost $10 trillion worth of the US national debt—more than a third of all the debt held by the public—must be refinanced this year.
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