Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Dan Nathan
The No. 1 Mistake Retail Investors Keep Making, According to This Wall Street Insider Original
Jacob Wackerhausen / iStock.com Commitment to Our Readers GOBankingRates' editorial team is committed to bringing you unbiased reviews and information. We use data-driven methodologies to evaluate financial products and services - our reviews and ratings are not influenced by advertisers. You can read more about our editorial guidelines and our products and services review methodology.
On The Tape: Geopolitics Take Center Stage for Markets
Guy, Dan, and Liz Young from SoFi discuss how the market is responding to Hamas attack against Israel (3:00), the potential for steeper declines in the S&P 500 (12:00), oversold conditions (14:15), earnings season kicking off (19:30), Apple as a “Utility Player” Stock (21:00), Banks (24:15).
Watch: U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland Names Trump Special Counsel for Criminal Probes
[The stream is slated to start at 2:15 p.m. ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] A special counsel is expected to be named Friday by Attorney General Merrick Garland to determine whether criminal charges should be filed against former President Donald Trump. The announcement is being made days after Trump said he would run for the White House again in 2024. Garland was appointed to his post by President Joe Biden, who well could be Trump's election opponent.
Risk Reversal - Issue #2
Hot Pods ğ¥ ğ First things first, if you are reading this newsletter, Guy Adami and I appreciate you, your interest in our content, your feedback (good and bad), and most of all your support of what we are building with Risk Reversal Media. Our Q1 2022 downloads are on pace to be up 10x year over year from Q1 2021, so thanks! We wanted to highlight a couple of podcasts from this past week that might help if you are trying to make some sense, as we are, of these volatile financial markets.
Crude Oil Breakout; PTJ and Bitcoin; the Fed versus Inflation Fears
Macro Configuration Overview: Bitcoin and PTJ – 0:55, 11:00 U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries – 2:25 US Dollar and FX, Gold – 8:30, 17:30 Wood, inflation, Fed – 13:20 Inflation Fears! Or, Inflationary Fears? This week The Macro Installation, with Dan Nathan and Guy Adami, focused on inflation, the housing bubble, Bitcoin and Paul Tudor Jones, and also what to expect to head to the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting.
The Set-Up (video) with Dan Nathan & Guy Adami
Guy and I hope you had a great weekend. We had a little delay this morning with the video as Zoom was down. I was able to record via my iPhone (sorry that you have to look up my nostrils).
The Set-Up (video) with Dan Nathan & Guy Adami
Good Morning, Guy and I are back with our weekly Set-Up, looking at the week ahead and discussing single stock and macro stories that will drive the market action this week. Watch below and see my notes below the video.
Straight Talk (Video) With Guy Adami & Sven Henrich
Yesterday in our fifth weekly episode of Straight Talk, I discuss markets and macro with my good friend Guy Adami and my good virtual friend Sven Henrich aka The Northman Trader, hosted on Sven’s YouTube channel. This week we drilled down on the May Jobs report, discuss the implications of sustained high unemployment despite May’s reversal of the millions of job losses of the prior two months.
In the Money with Fidelity Investments & Dan Nathan
Published 2 hours ago Published 2 hours ago Published Apr 8, 2020 Published Apr 8, 2020 Published Apr 2, 2020 Published Apr 2, 2020 Published Mar 25, 2020 Published Mar 25, 2020 Published Mar 18, 2020 Published Mar 18, 2020 Published Mar 11, 2020 Published Mar 11, 2020 Published Mar 4, 2020 Published Mar 4, 2020 Published Feb 25, 2020 Published Feb 25, 2020 See More Published Published Dan Nathan Contributor Dan Nathan is a regular panelist on CNBC's "Fast Money," and the founder and...
RiskReversal Brief: Sept 3rd - 6th
Here is a brief summary of last week's posts on RiskReversal.com: On Friday, Sept 6th on CNBC’s Options Action program we quickly previewed Apple’s up iPhone product launch event in Cupertino this Tuesday at 1pm est. The options market is only implying a 2% weekly move for the stock, which suggests that traders are not expecting too many surprises.
Salesforce.com (CRM) Q2 Preview
On Friday afternoon on RiskReversal.com I previewed Salesforce.com’s (CRM) upcoming Q2 results and detailed a protective hedge for long holders of the stock, read below. Also I discussed this trade idea Friday afternoon on CNBC’s Options Action program, watch below: Originally published on RiskReversal.com on Aug 16th, 2019 @ 2:42pm: Salesforce.com (CRM) is scheduled to report their fiscal Q2 results on Thursday, August 22nd after the close.
The Thrive Questionnaire With Dan Nathan
When you have the opportunity to ask some of the most interesting people in the world about their lives, sometimes the most fascinating answers come from the simplest questions. The Thrive Questionnaire is an ongoing series that gives an intimate look inside the lives of some of the world’s most successful people. Dan Nathan is the principal of RiskReversal Advisors.
Dan: A Look Under the Hood
On last night’s Fast Money on CNBC we opened the program with a discussion of whether or not investors looking to put fresh money to work in the stock market should stick with winning sectors year to date or dabble in with some laggards. While my crystal ball is in the shop for a tune-up, I thought I’d riff on this topic for a minute.
The Ticker District
On Friday’s Options Action on CNBC the panel discussed the surprising relative strength of high yield sectors within the S&P 500 (SPX) ytd, specifically the Utilities sector who’s etf, the XLU is up 6% ytd vs the SPX up about 6.5%, watch here: We wrote about it here, and offered a trade idea to play for a pullback between now and April expiration.
Dan: $XOP til You Drop
Earlier today my pal BK argued If Oil Breaks $50 The Investing Game Could Change: The predominant theme in the markets is the “reflation” trade. For those who have been living in a Scientology compound since November 2016, the reflation narrative goes something like this -> the global economy was improving before the election; Trumponomics (infrastructure spending and tax cuts) will be supportive of a strong economy; asset prices will move higher as the US economy grows at 4%+.
BK: If Oil Breaks $50 The Investing Game Could Change
The predominant theme in the markets is the “reflation” trade. For those who have been living in a Scientology compound since November 2016, the reflation narrative goes something like this -> the global economy was improving before the election; Trumponomics (infrastructure spending and tax cuts) will be supportive of a strong economy; asset prices will move higher as the US economy grows at 4%+. BUT…if oil breaks $50, the reflation narrative could fail.
BK: Here Comes Trumpflation… But Not the Way You Think
The consensus view on Wall Street is that PEOTUS is about to bring $1 trillion in stimulus to the United States – this spending is expected to increase the prices of things, aka inflation; aka Trumpflation. Trumpflation is expected to be benign, gently lifting prices like an old man from a warm bath. But what if its not? What if there was something else lurking that could bring a more sinister type of inflation – the type that eats into profit margins and reduces consumer spending power?
BK: Why I’m Long TLT
Over the last fortnight, BK has harped on the “China is importing inflation” theme. He has suggested that buying gold (GLD) and Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP) was the prudent move in this environment. But last night on the television program Fast Money, BK argued that now was the time to BUY TLT – how can BK think that inflation is picking up AND that interest rates are going lower?
The Ticker District
This morning Venture Beat ran an article (via Reuters) Silicon Valley VCs are growing wary of on-demand delivery, as investment in such businesses is waning: many VCs have lost faith in a sector that once seemed like the obvious extension of the success of ride-services juggernauts such as Uber. the bulk of this year’s investment – about $1.9 billion – came in the first half of the year.
The Ticker District
Yesterday in this space I did a little compare and contrast between expectations into Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q3 earnings due out last night (here). In a nutshell, I emphasized: Well, the company issued Q3 results that were fairly decent but offered Q4 guidance that was below expectations, and the stock is down 5.5% in the pre-market as I write. Of the 48 Wall Street analysts who cover the stock there are NO Sell ratings, and only 5 Holds.
Dan: Alexa… Destroy Spotify
Amazon.com wants to eff up the streaming music business the way it has almost every other business it has entered. Their “business” model when they enter a new market is not too focused on such mundane things like profitability. They focus on marketshare, expanding the usefulness of existing services (and now devices/ platforms like Echo) and ultimately make Amazon.com through Prime membership that much stickier.
BK: $51 is the Magic Number
That’s right, the only thing investors need to look at today is the number $51, it will tell you the entire story of the market. This number could have its day in the sun at 10:30 ET. What the heck is BK talking about? Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea. As BK wrote last week, oil is the most interesting market in the world – not just because of its technical setup but also because of the impact it will have on US interest rates, the dollar and US stocks.
BK: Brexit UK Heads Toward Recession, Europe and US Next?
The UK economy was not strong before the Brexit vote and the July PMI report released today suggests Brexit was a material hit to economic activity. The Markit UK Manufacturing PMI printed 48.2, well into contractionary territory. A reading of 48.2 implies that the next UK GDP report should be negative – likely to be around -0.5%. The good news is that Germany continues to be the engine of the European economy as its PMI printed at an expansionary 52.
BK: Pound, Too Far Too Fast?
The British Pound has appreciated more against the US Dollar in the last week than it did during the 1985 Plaza Accord. From September 20, 1985 to September 23, 1985 the Pound/USD rate appreciated by 5.94%; from the June 16, 2016 low to today’s high (June 23, 2016) the Pound/USD rate has appreciated 6.67%! That’s right, betting on the outcome of the Brexit Vote has created more volatility than when the major central banks had an emergency weekend meeting and intervened in the currency markets.
Dan: Operation Rolling Top
Friday afternoon I detailed a trade idea in the XLV, the S&P Healthcare Select etf (read here). The premise was fairly simple. The XLV has been a relative under-performer but it could be poised to play catch-up. The index is down about 1% on year, and down about 9% from its 52 week highs. vs the S&P 500 (SPX) which is up 2.7% on the year, and down about 1% from its all time highs made last May. 35% of the etf’s weight, (the top 5 holdings) are down about 3.5% from their 52 week highs on average.
Apple is now run by a guy who is more like John Sculley than Steve Jobs
A version of this post was first published on RiskReversal.com. Last Tuesday on CNBC’s “Fast Money,” former Apple Computer CEO John Sculley called in to weigh in on our panel discussion of whether or not the company’s best days are behind it. Watch here: There was a lot of Twitter hate thrown our way for having Sculley on. After all, he’s the guy who effectively fired company founder Steve Jobs in 1985.
Dan: Options for Staples Breakouts
U.S. consumer staples stocks (XLP) are the second best performing sector in the S&P 500 (SPX) in 2016, up 5.5%, behind Utilities (XLU) which are up 13%.
BK: Sippin’ on Yen and Utes
BK: Sippin’ on Yen and Utes By Brian Kelly - - Market Sentiment on April 7, 2016 2:41 PM Follow-Ups I wrote this morning about the huge divergence between the Yen and the SPY, in this video I take a deeper dive into the Yen and how it has impacted global equity markets. Finally, I explore how the utility sector (XLU) has benefited from a weak Yen and how that trade may be coming to an end. Watch here. 0 Follow-Ups
BK: InterYention: Jaws of Life or Death?
BK has harped on the multiple divergences occurring in the financial markets, in particular he has mentioned the underperformance of the DAX and Nikkei 225, but today there is one more divergence that has caught the markets attention. Spoiler Alert: It’s the Japanese Yen. The Yen has been used as a funding currency for carry trades, that is to say traders short Yen and use the proceeds to buy financial instruments with yield.
Dan: Short Squeeze vs Topping Pattern
This morning, Bloomberg reported on short interest in U.S. equity markets reaching levels not seen since 2008, with the suggestion that this could serve as a contrarian set up, quoting Fundstrat Global Advisor’s Thomas Lee, who opined: This all makes perfect sense, especially when you consider the factor that the U.S. stock market has overcome every short term obstacle since the financial crisis.
BK: Is it Time to Fight the FED?
Is it Time to Fight the FED? Answer for the Time Challenged: Yes. Everyone else please read on… The rallying cry for the bull market since 2009 has been “don’t fight the FED,” over time this morphed into “don’t fight central banks.” It was a battle cry that worked. As the following chart shows, since 2009 the S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and DAX have all soared as much as 200%.
BK: SPX Diverged from Nikkei and DAX, Convergence Next?
BK: SPX Diverged from Nikkei and DAX, Convergence Next? By Brian Kelly - - Market Sentiment on April 5, 2016 1:44 PM Follow-Ups As a follow up to my earlier post I wanted to look at the technicals of the S&P 500 as compared to the Nikkei 225 and the German DAX. There’s been a divergence lately, largely a result of the reversal in dollar strength and I put together a video of where the SPX/ SPY could go if that divergence ended. Watch here. 0 Follow-Ups
BK: An End to the Currency War Cease Fire?
Since February 2015, the ECB has stood guard over the Euro making sure it does not breach 1.14. The preferred method of defense has been jawboning, in civilized Central Bank speak this is known as the “Communication Channel.” In May 2015, when the Euro jumped above 1.14 the ECB announced that it would “front-load” QE, in the next 2 months the Euro dropped -5% against the US dollar.
BK: Inflation and the Dollar
BK: Inflation and the Dollar By Brian Kelly - - Market Sentiment on April 4, 2016 1:36 PM Follow-Ups As I’ve said a few times recently, if you get the dollar right in this market, you’re going to get most other markets right. I wanted to look more closely at the dollar index today, and look back a few years, is this pullback in the dollar more corrective or a reversal?
BK: Is the Fed Calling the Bottom in Oil?
Over the last week, FED governors have walked back market expectations of “lower for longer.” Today Chair Yellen speaks and the investment world will be listening for hints that a rate hike is on the table. More accurately investors will be waiting to hear if the FED is calling a bottom in oil. It’s not the FED’s job to trade oil you say? Well, for better or worse it has been doing that for the better part of a year.
Dan: Crude Awakening
Crude oil and the dollar have been the source of much of global market volatility across asset classes the past year. The end of QE in late 2014 caused the dollar to emerge from its multi-year, Fed-induced dirt nap. That dollar resulted in the collapse of crude oil. Today, the US Dollar index (DXY) is having one of its largest one day moves some time, down 1.25% and below $95 for the first time in 2016.
Dan: Brazil (EWZ) a Coiled Spring?
Regular readers know that macro ain’t exactly my bag, I’m more of a U.S. stock/options monkey. But every so often a headline outside my wheelhouse catches my eye and I dig a little deeper.
Dan: Everyday Lows Prices in $WMT
There was a lot of noise made about Walmart’s (WMT) relative out-performance to the S&P 500 (SPX) in 2016. It up about 8% on yesterday’s close vs the SPX down about 6%. The out-performance was is sharp contrast to 2015, when WMT was down nearly 30% vs the SPX flat on the year. In 2016 it was assumed that a lot of Amazon’s (AMZN) gains came from WMT’s pain (AMZN was up more than 100% last year). I have a slightly different view.
BK: The End of the Debt Supercycle Risks Another Crisis
On CNBC’s Fast Money, Thursday January 7, 2016, I was asked what investors should do with stock portfolios given recent weakness in a discussion about the state of the markets. My answer was if you have large gains from the depths of the financial crisis, then “go to cash”. Later I reiterated my view during an appearance on CNBC’s special programming “Markets in Turmoil”; when asked what percentage of a portfolio should be in cash I answered, “100%”.
Tim: Opportunities where China exposure is exaggerated
The extrapolation of China’s market woes and currency devaluation upon the business of US domiciled multinational retailers with exposure to China has gone way too far. A look at the charts of some obvious players with well-known China ambitions or those with core top line growth contributions from China is a look at deeply oversold charts where fundamentals are far from broken. Forget the tired Apple China discussion. And I’m not talking about Coach.
BK - Lost confidence in China’s shadow banking system
While most investors are focused on the next lever the Chinese government will pull there is a bigger issue at hand – and that is a loss of confidence. Chinese citizens and international investors have correctly believed that the Chinese government would do whatever it takes to create a stock market bubble. The problem now is the government has lost control – despite desperate measures Chinese stocks continue to fall. It will likely take years for confidence to return.
Waiting on China Evidence
Last night I caught a segment on CNBC.com of Jim Cramer suggesting that China’s economic turnaround is “months, not years away”. Watch here: Jim highlights several reasonable data points that suggest a turn could be near, and offers some fairly safe ways to play via U.S. multi-nationals that would be levered to China economic reflation. When it comes to Cramer, I think you can throw out all of what you think you know about financial pundits.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Dan
Contact Dan, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack