Daniela Custódio Talora

1 Introduction Anthropogenic climate change is already causing profound impacts on biodiversity (Coleman and Bragg 2021), with plants being particularly vulnerable (Parmesan 2006; Walther 2003). According to the latest IPCC report (IPCC 2023), global surface temperatures are projected to continue rising through 2040, with increases ranging from ~1.5°C under low-emission scenarios to 2.7°C–4.4°C under intermediate and high-emission scenarios.

Background Species diversity is not constant over time and space (Weber et al. 2014), which has intrigued scientists since the time of Darwin and Wallace. Mapping endemism patterns is a crucial approach for characterizing the distribution of biodiversity (Rosauer et al. 2009). It serves as an important part of biogeographic research to identify regions with taxa that should be prioritized for global conservation efforts (Rosauer et al. 2009).

Background Taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity metrics are widely used to track the changes in biodiversity and support better conservation measures (Faith 1992, Baselga 2010, Laliberté and Legendre 2010). Currently, climate change is considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and many studies that apply diversity metrics have been focused on the consequences of this threat.