David Rotman
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Articles by David Rotman
O que está em jogo na aposta de trilhões de dólares da IA
Quando Jessica Wachter, professora de finanças da Escola Wharton da Universidade da Pensilvânia, quis avaliar o impacto da IA na economia nos próximos anos, ela se deparou com uma longa lista de incertezas empresariais e técnicas. Então, começou pelo que chama de um “fato notável” que não está em discussão: um grupo restrito de empresas conhecidas como hiperescaladores está investindo enormes quantias de dinheiro na construção de data centers de IA.
What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off
When Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wanted to assess AI’s impact on the economy over the next few years, she faced a long list of business and technical uncertainties. So she started with what she calls a “remarkable fact” that is not in question: A handful of so-called hyperscalers are investing huge amounts of money to build AI data centers.
What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off
When Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wanted to assess AI’s impact on the economy over the next few years, she faced a long list of business and technical uncertainties. So she started with what she calls a “remarkable fact” that is not in question: A handful of so-called hyperscalers are investing huge amounts of money to build AI data centers.
O que é real sobre a histeria em torno dos empregos na Era da IA
Você não ficou sabendo? Os empregos estão desaparecendo, dizimados pela Inteligência Artificial. Ondas de demissões no setor de tecnologia, mais recentemente na Coinbase, na Meta e na Cisco, são apontadas como um prenúncio do que, em breve, virá para todos nós, trabalhadores do conhecimento.
A reality check on the AI jobs hysteria
Haven’t you heard? White-collar jobs are going away, decimated by AI. Waves of layoffs in the tech sector (most recently at Coinbase and Meta and Cisco) are said to presage what will soon come for all of us knowledge workers. But before you quit your job as a software developer or financial analyst—or tech journalist—and look to join the plumbers’ union, it’s worth considering today’s economic research on whether artificial intelligence has actually begun to devour white-collar work.
A reality check on the AI jobs hysteria
World News 5 hours ago Near record highs, stocks face fresh test from bond yields CNN - By John Towfighi • 5h New York — The S&P 500 on Friday clinched its eighth straight weekly gain, the index’s longest winning streak since 2023. The reasons might sound familiar: strong corporate earnings and AI enthusiasm as investors look past concerns about the war with Iran.
Los materiales descubiertos con IA todavía tienen que llegar al mundo real
Esta historia forma parte del paquete El fin del ‘hype’ de la IA de MIT Technology Review, una serie que busca reajustar las expectativas sobre qué es la IA, qué permite y hacia dónde vamos. El instrumento del laboratorio Lila Sciences (Cambridge, Massachusetts, EE UU) tiene el tamaño de un microondas y no parece muy distinto a otros que he visto en laboratorios punteros de materiales.
AI materials discovery now needs to move into the real world
The microwave-size instrument at Lila Sciences in Cambridge, Massachusetts, doesn’t look all that different from others that I’ve seen in state-of-the-art materials labs. Inside its vacuum chamber, the machine zaps a palette of different elements to create vaporized particles, which then fly through the chamber and land to create a thin film, using a technique called sputtering.
AI materials discovery now needs to move into the real world
4 hours ago When Becky ordered a Barbie doll for her daughter, she got a notification from delivery firm Evri saying it had arrived. There was just one problem: it was nowhere to be seen. There was no parcel at her front door, in the Hampshire village of Twyford, and the photo she was sent of its location was …
The State of AI: when will we reach economic singularity?
Welcome back to The State of AI, a new collaboration between the Financial Times and MIT Technology Review.
The State of AI: welcome to the economic singularity
7 hours ago It maintains some allowances for ad-free subscribers using legacy Chromecast or Google Cast hardware. Netflix has removed the ability to cast shows and movies from phones to TVs, unless subscribers are using older casting devices. An updated help page on Netflix’s website, first reported by Android …
Investimento em ciência: por que financiar pesquisa é o melhor retorno para a economia
Perante os cortes draconianos no financiamento federal dos Estados Unidos à ciência, incluindo a proposta do governo de reduzir em 40% o orçamento de 2026 dos Institutos Nacionais de Saúde e em 57% o da Fundação Nacional de Ciência, vale a pena colocar algumas perguntas difíceis sobre dinheiro: quanto deveríamos estar a investir em Investigação & Desenvolvimento?
Os gastos em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento
Diante dos cortes draconianos no financiamento federal dos Estados Unidos para a ciência, incluindo a proposta da administração de reduzir em 40% o orçamento de 2026 dos Institutos Nacionais de Saúde e em 57% o da Fundação Nacional de Ciências, vale a pena fazer algumas perguntas duras sobre dinheiro: Quanto deveríamos estar gastando em P&D? Quanto valor realmente obtemos desses investimentos?
IA usa material de artigos científicos retratados
Alguns chatbots de IA dependem de pesquisas falhas de artigos científicos retratados para responder a perguntas, de acordo com estudos recentes. As conclusões, confirmadas pela MIT Technology Review, levantam dúvidas sobre a fiabilidade das ferramentas de IA na avaliação de pesquisas científicas e podem complicar os esforços de países e indústrias que procuram investir em ferramentas de IA para cientistas.
Por qué la inversión pública en I+D es necesaria en tiempos de recortes en EE UU
Dados los drásticos recortes en la financiación federal de ciencia en Estados Unidos, incluida la propuesta del Gobierno de reducir en un 40% el presupuesto de 2026 de los Institutos Nacionales de Salud y en un 57% el de la Fundación Nacional para la Ciencia, vale la pena plantearse algunas preguntas difíciles sobre el dinero: ¿Cuánto deberíamos gastar en I+D? ¿Cuánto valor obtenemos de esas inversiones?
How to measure the returns on R&D spending
MIT Technology Review Explains: Let our writers untangle the complex, messy world of technology to help you understand what’s coming next. You can read more from the series here. Given the draconian cuts to US federal funding for science, including the administration’s proposal to reduce the 2026 budgets of the National Institutes of Health by 40% and the National Science Foundation by 57%, it’s worth asking some hard-nosed money questions: How much should we be spending on R&D?
Jewish tradition views weeping as a secret weapon. 20 years ago, it proved powerless
On one of Israel's tensest days, during the Gaza disengagement, ceremonial tears didn't change the course of history Aug 23, 2025 12:40 pm IDT Aug 23, 2025 12:40 pm IDT August 18, 2005, was one of the tensest days in Israel's history. It was the day on which the evacuation of the largest settlement in the Gaza Strip – Neve Dekalim – was scheduled to be completed.
La última amenaza del auge de la industria manufacturera china
Las conclusiones de hace una década fueron, bueno, impactantes. Los economistas convencionales habían defendido durante mucho tiempo que el libre comercio era, en general, algo positivo; aunque podría haber algunos ganadores y perdedores, en general traería precios más bajos y prosperidad generalizada.
El consumo energético de la IA prolonga la dependencia del gas natural durante décadas
Las miles de hectáreas que se extienden por el noreste rural de Luisiana (EE UU) habían estado abandonadas durante casi dos décadas. Las autoridades de Luisiana compraron los terrenos en Richland Parish en 2006 para promover el desarrollo económico de una de las regiones más pobres del estado.
Tarifas ameaçam a manufatura dos EUA
Apesar do caos geopolítico e dos colapsos de mercado provocados pelo anúncio do presidente dos Estados Unidos Donald Trump sobre tarifas abrangentes – ou tarifaço, como vem sendo chamado no Brasil – para produtos internacionais, alguns apoiadores ainda esperam que a estratégia produza uma “era de ouro” da indústria americana.
The latest threat from the rise of Chinese manufacturing
The findings a decade ago were, well, shocking. Mainstream economists had long argued that free trade was overall a good thing; though there might be some winners and losers, it would generally bring lower prices and widespread prosperity.
The latest threat from the rise of Chinese manufacturing
Now MIT, Stanford University, and the University of California-Berkeley are the top producers of PhDs across several technology areas critical to U.S. innovation and security, according to a new study. That same study found that the federal government was the dominant funding source for doctoral STEM …
IA pode estender uso do gás natural
Os milhares de acres espalhados no nordeste rural da Louisiana ficaram sem interesse por quase duas décadas. As autoridades da Louisiana compraram a terra na Paróquia de Richland em 2006 para promover o desenvolvimento econômico em uma das regiões mais pobres do estado.
AI could keep us dependent on natural gas for decades to come
The thousands of sprawling acres in rural northeast Louisiana had gone unwanted for nearly two decades. Louisiana authorities bought the land in Richland Parish in 2006 to promote economic development in one of the poorest regions in the state. For years, they marketed the former agricultural fields as the Franklin Farm mega site, first to auto manufacturers (no takers) and after that to other industries that might want to occupy more than a thousand acres just off the interstate.
We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. Here’s the story you haven’t heard.
The emissions from individual AI text, image, and video queries seem small—until you add up what the industry isn’t tracking and consider where it’s heading next. AI’s integration into our lives is the most significant shift in online life in more than a decade. Hundreds of millions of people now regularly turn to chatbots for help with homework, research, coding, or to create images and videos. But what’s powering all of that?
Los aranceles podrían amenazar la recuperación de la industria estadounidense
A pesar del caos geopolítico y los desplomes de los mercados desencadenados por el anuncio del presidente Trump de imponer amplios aranceles a las mercancías internacionales, algunos partidarios aún esperan que la estrategia produzca una «edad de oro» de la industria estadounidense. El propio Trump insiste: «Los empleos y las fábricas volverán rugiendo a nuestro país«.
MIT Technology Review en español
Publicaciones analizadas The Rise and Fall of American Growth (El auge y caída…
Sweeping tariffs could threaten the US manufacturing rebound
Share Despite the geopolitical chaos and market collapses triggered by President Trump’s announcement of broad tariffs on international goods, some supporters still hope the strategy will produce a “golden age” of American industry.
Sweeping tariffs could threaten the US manufacturing rebound
This story is part of MIT Technology Review’s “America Undone” series, examining how the foundations of US success in science and innovation are currently under threat. You can read the rest here. Despite the geopolitical chaos and market collapses triggered by President Trump’s announcement of broad tariffs on international goods, some supporters still hope the strategy will produce a “golden age” of American industry.
Opinion: Balancing job security and collective rights in an increasingly automated world
Letlhokwa Geoge Mpedi is the Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the University of Johannesburg. Tshilidzi Marwala is a Rector of the United Nations University and UN Under Secretary-General. They recently published an opinion article that first appeared in the Daily Maverick on 17 February 2025 In an increasingly automated environment, fewer human workers and the rise of autonomous systems and collaborative robots, or co-bots, could reduce the effectiveness of strike actions.
Balancing job security, collective rights in an increasingly automated world
Fears of widespread job losses have accompanied every industrial revolution, and the current era of digital transformation is no exception. Yet, as Yuval Noah Harari reminds us, “since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, for every job lost to a machine, at least one new job was created, and the average standard of living has increased dramatically”. While automation will inevitably displace jobs, the creation of new ones remains less certain.
大統領選の争点にもなった米住宅危機の深層--建設業界の生産性に課題
人工妊娠中絶や移民、さらに気候変動をはるかに上回って、30歳未満の米国有権者が最も懸念している問題が、「住宅アフォーダビリティ（手ごろさ）」である。家賃の高騰、極めて高い住宅販売価格が、最大の懸念事項であると認識しているのは若い有権者だけではない。記憶にある限りでは初めて、住宅コストが大統領選挙において大きな争点となる可能性があった。 その理由を理解するのは難しいことではない。パンデミックの始まりから2024年初頭までに、米国の住宅価格は47％も上昇した。米国の大部分では、中流階級の所得の人たちであっても、住宅の購入がもはや不可能となっている。多くの人たちにとって、それは「家を持つこと」を中心に築かれたアメリカン・ドリームの終焉を意味する。同じ期間に、家賃は26％上昇している。...
The surprising barrier that keeps us from building the housing we need
Ahead of abortion access, ahead of immigration, and way ahead of climate change, US voters under 30 are most concerned about one issue: housing affordability. And it’s not just young voters who are identifying soaring rents and eye-watering home sale prices as among their top worries. For the first time in recent memory, the cost of housing could be a major factor in the presidential election. It’s not hard to see why. From the beginning of the pandemic to early 2024, US home prices rose by 47%.
The surprising barrier that keeps us from building the housing we need
5 hours ago These four employees worked for Kamala Harris. What they learned about leadership will inspire you. Four people who have worked for the Vice President talk about why Harris is a strong leader—and what lessons they have learned from her. Since becoming Vice President, Kamala Harris has faced her share of reports about her management style and the high turnover in her office.
La IA podría contribuir a la productividad (si se hacen las cosas de otra forma)
Cuando Chad Syverson consulta estos días el sitio web de la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales de Estados Unidos en busca de los últimos datos sobre productividad, lo hace con una sensación de optimismo que no había sentido en mucho tiempo. Las cifras del último año, más o menos, han sido en general sólidas por diversas razones financieras y empresariales, recuperándose de los primeros días de la pandemia.
生成AI革命は今度こそ 経済成長をもたらすか？
ビジネス Insider Online限定 How to fine-tune AI for prosperity 生成AIはまだ、「世界を変える」存在にはなっていない。生成AIを活用して低迷する経済成長から抜け出すためには、いくつかの重大な軌道修正が必要だ。 by David Rotman2024.09.02 0 チャド・サイヴァーソンは最近、米国労働統計局のWebサイトで生産性に関する最新データを探していると、久しぶりに楽観的な気持ちになる。 ここ1年ほどの生産性に関する数字は、金融やビジネス上のさまざまな理由から全般的に好調に推移しており、パンデミック初期の状況から立ち直りつつある。四半期ごとの数字はノイズが多く一貫性がないことでよく知られているが、シカゴ大学のエコノミストであるサイヴァーソン卓越教授はデータを丹念に調べ、人工知能（AI）主導の経済成長が始まったことを示す初期の手がかりを見つけようとしている。...
How to fine-tune AI for prosperity
When Chad Syverson loads the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website these days looking for the latest data on productivity, he does so with a sense of optimism that he hasn’t felt in ages. The numbers for the last year or so have been generally strong for various financial and business reasons, rebounding from the early days of the pandemic.
How to fine-tune AI for prosperity
Computer Science 6 hours ago Even Microsoft doesn't think AI is 'designed or intended' to substitute professionals and should only be treated as a guide windowscentral.com - kevinokemwa@outlook.com • 6h Microsoft recently released an updated Service Agreement indicating that artificial intelligence should be considered more of a guide than a … Technology 10 hours ago The AI bubble is real and it's ready to burst Macworld - The Macalope • 10h Apple Intelligence might be arriving at the worst...
スタートアップがクリーンテック1.0の失敗から学ぶべき6つの教訓
クリーン・エネルギーの再発明や巨大産業市場の変革を目指す気候テックスタートアップ企業が急増していることで、気候変動への対処に関する私たちの考え方は、ますます楽観的になっている。グリーン・スチールから核融合まで、想像しうるほぼすべての分野において、ベンチャー・キャピタルの支援を受ける企業には、数百億ドルの資金が注ぎ込まれている。 以前執筆した記事でも説明している通り、ベンチャー・キャピタリストが主導する投資は、クリーン・エネルギー源や環境により優しい産業工程の開発において、重要な役割を果たす可能性がある。私は多数のベンチャー・キャピタル、スタートアップ企業関係者、およびいわゆるディープ・テックにおけるイノベーションを研究している学者たちとの会話を通して、私たちは今、カーボンフリー経済の初期段階にいると確信するようになった。...
IRS announces 2025 HSA/HDHP and excepted benefit HRA limits - Buck
by and Tags: Conformité, Health The IRS has released the HSA and HDHP limits for 2025. The annual contribution limits, minimum deductible, and out-of-pocket amounts all increased over the 2024 limits. The 2025 excepted benefit HRA amount increased as well. Plan sponsors with an HDHP offering should ensure that the deductibles comply with the new minimum amounts. Download this FYI as a printable PDF.
Medicare Part D: Final calendar year 2025 Part D Redesign Program Instructions provide needed clarifications - Buck
CMS released its Medicare Part D payment policies for 2025, as well as the Final CY 2025 Part D Redesign Program Instructions. This builds on the Draft CY 2025 Part D Redesign Program Instructions that were released by CMS on January 31. Download this FYI as a printable PDF.
San Francisco HCSO and FCO annual report due by May 3 - Buck
by and Tags: Compliance, Health San Francisco requires covered employers to make minimum healthcare expenditures on behalf of their San Francisco employees and to comply with certain requirements regarding the use of arrest and conviction records in hiring and other employment decisions. Covered employers must report each year on compliance with both of these requirements. The next report for 2023 is due by May 3. Download this FYI as a printable PDF.
クリーンテック2.0、 過去の失敗からの学び
ビジネス Insider Online限定 Climate tech is back—and this time, it can't afford to fail ブームに沸いたクリーンテック1.0の破綻から10年、米インフレ抑制法などを背景に気候分野のスタートアップが再び活況を呈している。クリーンテック2.0と呼ばれる新たな波は、過去の失敗を乗り越えられるか。 by David Rotman2024.03.19 0 2度目となる訪問で、私は既視感に戸惑いながらインターホンのブザーを鳴らした。そして、時間を超越したような奇妙な感覚を覚えた。今回訪れた太陽光発電スタートアップの本社は、10年以上前に訪れた以前のオフィスと不思議なほどよく似ていた。社名は1366テクノロジーズ（1366 Technologies）からキュービックPV（CubicPV）に変更され、オフィスは1キロメートル半ほど離れた場所に移転していた。しかし、それ以外はすべて見覚えがあるような気がした。気候テック・ブームに関するインタビューという訪問理由も前回と同じだ。...
Roundtables - The AI Economy
The AI Economy Speakers: Mat Honan, Editor in chief and David Rotman, Editor at large There’s no doubt that generative AI will impact the economy—but how, exactly, remains an open question. Despite fears that these AI tools will upend workers and exacerbate wealth inequality, early evidence suggests the technology could actually help level the playing field for some. But only if we deploy it in the right ways.
「宝くじに当たった」 錆び付いた工業都市は 半導体で復活できるか？
倫理／政策 Insider Online限定 The $100 billion bet that a postindustrial US city can reinvent itself as a high-tech hub ラストベルト地域（錆び付いた工業地帯）の北東の端に位置するニューヨーク州シラキュースで、米国最大級の半導体工場の建設が始まる。巨額の資金投入は、シラキュース経済を一変し、米国産業基盤の再構築の指針となるだろうか。 by David Rotman2024.02.14 0 ニューヨーク州シラキュースとその周辺の町を豊かな未来へと導くはずの4平方キロメートルの土地は、今はまだ木や草が生い茂る、何の変哲もない雑木林にすぎない。だが、2023年4月下旬のある日、小さな掘削装置が敷地の端で土壌サンプルを採取していた。米国最大となりえる半導体工場建設のはじまりだ。...
Medicare Part D creditable coverage disclosures due to CMS February 29 - Buck
Group health plan sponsors that provide prescription drug coverage to individuals eligible for Medicare Part D must disclose whether that coverage is “creditable” or “non-creditable.” The disclosure is required even if prescription drug coverage is only offered to active employees and not retirees. Calendar year plans must submit their disclosure by February 29 this year due to leap year. Download this FYI as a printable PDF.
People are worried that AI will take everyone’s jobs. We’ve been here before. Original
MIT Technology Review is celebrating our 125th anniversary with an online series that draws lessons for the future from our past coverage of technology. It was 1938, and the pain of the Great Depression was still very real. Unemployment in the US was around 20%. Everyone was worried about jobs. In 1930, the prominent British economist John Maynard Keynes had warned that we were “being afflicted with a new disease” called technological unemployment.
Planning for 2024: Compliance for health and welfare benefit plans (updated) - Buck
by , and Tags: Compliance, Health This article has been updated to include 2024 benefit limits and the compliance calendar was adjusted to reflect the leap year. With 2024 on the horizon, plan sponsors should be aware of health and welfare compliance topics they may need to act on in the coming year. This planner provides a discussion of key issues for consideration and a calendar outlining important deadlines. Download this FYI as a printable PDF.
Six takeaways from a climate-tech boom
The surge of climate-tech startups seeking to reinvent clean energy and transform huge industrial markets is fueling optimism about our prospects for addressing climate change. Tens of billions are pouring into these venture-backed companies in just about every field you can imagine, from green steel to nuclear fusion.
Climate tech is back—and this time, it can’t afford to fail
Lost in a stupor of déjà vu, I rang the intercom buzzer a second time. I had the odd sensation of being unstuck in time. The headquarters of this solar startup looked strangely similar to its previous offices, which I had visited more than a decade before. The name of the company had changed from 1366 Technologies to CubicPV, and it had moved about a mile away. But the rest felt familiar, right down to what I had come to talk about: a climate-tech boom.
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