Key Risk: AI networking shifts to architectures that require less optical transport spend than expected, or hyperscalers delay capex. Buy CIEN. If Broadcom’s Ethernet approach reduces optical links and power while enabling faster, larger AI clusters, it increases the total value of transport gear per cluster and supports higher optical/networking capex. Tomahawk 6’s “fewer tiers” still drives more traffic volume and scale, which is Ciena’s sweet spot in coherent optics and transport. Buy AVGO.