Adjunct @CNAStech | 2026 Fellow @WarInstitute | PhD @Harvard_GovDept | US-China strategy, technology, and defense innovation | views my own, and always learning
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Articles by Elsa Kania
The Geopolitics of 6G with Vivek Chilukuri, Michael Calabrese, and Lindsay Gorman
Vivek Chilukuri, senior fellow and program director at the Center for a New American Security, joined POLITICO Policy Outlook to discuss the geopolitical implications of 6G, the potential military and national security implications, and the importance of the global telecom market. Watch the full video on POLITICO.
Inspired by Ukraine war, Taiwan launches drone blitz to counter China
Today, China has virtually cornered the global commercial drone market, accounting for an estimated 80% of sales, according to some industry estimates. This is a key advantage for the PLA, which can draw on this vast commercial drone industry for technical assistance, equipment suppliers and off-the-shelf models.
Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety
In this paper, we focus specifically on the regulation of frontier AI models, which we define as highly capable foundation models that could have dangerous capabilities sufficient to pose severe risks to public safety and global security. Examples of such dangerous capabilities include designing new biochemical weapons, producing highly persuasive personalized disinformation, and evading human control.
War In The Age of AI. A Chilling, Mind-Blowing Talk With A Former Pentagon Defense Expert
The transformation to AI-enabled warfare is happening at breakneck speed. The stakes are huge and — given the sophistication and vulnerability of the weapons systems — so are the risks. Former Pentagon defense expert Paul Scharre explains in chilling detail how the future of global security is at stake and how AI changes everything. Listen to the full episode and more from 3 Takeaways.
Foreign Policy Live: The Scramble for AI
In collaboration Foreign Policy Magazine, today we bring you a special bonus episode featuring Paul Scharre, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies here at CNAS. He joins host Ravi Agrawal and the Foreign Policy Live podcast to discuss his latest book Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, his Foreign Policy cover article, and the global state of AI. We return with a new episode this Friday.
How Militaries Are Using Artificial Intelligence on and off the Battlefield
Artificial intelligence has been a crucial tool for many nations’ militaries for years. Now, with the war in Ukraine driving innovation, AI’s role is likely to grow. Paul Scharre, vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Ali Rogin to discuss how militaries have adopted AI and how it might be used on the battlefield in the future. Watch the full video and more from PBS Newshour.
Geopolitics Keeps Overruling Cyber Norms, So What’s the Alternative?
Whenever a new technology emerges as a national security issue, governments want to establish norms of behavior. We are seeing it with AI, with unmanned systems, with hypersonic technology — and we have seen it with cyberspace. Setting norms can be useful. The process itself can have benefits: it requires governments to communicate and develop a better understanding of how different nations view challenging issues.
Chinese Espionage Circles the Globe
December 21, 2021 Source: ANI News China collects vast swathes of information from around the world, by fair or foul means, as part of its national intelligence apparatus. Some of this spying is done by individuals and businesses, but a great deal of it is sanctioned by the Chinese government. Indeed, on 3 November 2021, the Pentagon's 21st edition of its China Military Power Report contained a whole section on Chinese espionage.
Edge Networks, Core Policy
Executive Summary Technological leadership by the United States requires forethought and organization. The plan necessary to maintain that leadership—a national technology strategy—should be broad in scope.
U.S. vs. China: The Design, Tech Behind Military Drones
Reports December 2, 2021 Edge Networks, Core Policy Executive Summary Technological leadership by the United States requires forethought and organization. The plan necessary to maintain that leadership—a national technology str... By Martijn Rasser, Ainikki Riikonen & Henry Wu Podcast November 19, 2021 How Russia Fights Russia is a formidable adversary that is currently undergoing transformative modernization. Its combat proficient force has inculcated lessons learned from recent combat opera...
How the Intelligence Community Can Get Better at Open Source Intel
During his House Appropriations Committee testimony on May 27, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley presciently stated that a country must master ubiquitous intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance to win the next major war.
How Should the U.S. Respond to China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy?
By blurring the line between military and commercial endeavors, military-civil fusion (MCF) has heightened the risk that U.S. companies or universities may be unwittingly eroding U.S. military advantage through cooperation with Chinese companies, institutions, or individual researchers. These risks have naturally demanded the attention of policymakers. However, in drawing attention to such risks, the Trump administration turned MCF into something that it is not.
Stemming the Flow: The United States Needs a Strategy to Address China’s Strategic Exportation of Digital Authoritarianism
Many of China’s technology companies perfect their products in the domestic market by facilitating the party-state’s oppression and data control, and subsequently seek to export the technology to fledgling authoritarian states or nations with fragile democracies.
The Biden Administration Should Review and Rebuild the Trump Administration’s China Initiative From the Ground Up
With the mid-January arrest of Massachusetts Institute of Technology engineering professor Gang Chen, the outgoing Trump administration’s Department of Justice handed its successors a firestorm of controversy to reckon with, including relentless criticism from academic institutions and Asian American advocacy groups.
The Biden Administration Should Review and Rebuild the Trump Administration’s China Initiative From the Ground Up
With the mid-January arrest of Massachusetts Institute of Technology engineering professor Gang Chen, the outgoing Trump administration’s Department of Justice handed its successors a firestorm of controversy to reckon with, including relentless criticism from academic institutions and Asian American advocacy groups.
A Sharper Approach to China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy Begins by Dispelling Myths
The U.S. senators who found time to ask Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen about China’s military-civil fusion showed how widespread have become concerns about Beijing’s efforts to blur the lines between the country’s military and civilian entities. But the Trump administration’s oft-hyperbolic messaging about MCF has given rise to myths and several misperceptions.
Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy
Introduction In U.S. policy debates on China, military-civil fusion (MCF) has emerged as a frequent subject of debate and concern.
Regulate Social-Media Companies
The events of January 6 showed existing approaches to quell disinformation and incitements to violence on social media platforms have failed, badly. Even though the companies that run these platforms are displaying a new willingness to police them, up to and including banning the worst offenders, claims that U.S. tech companies can self-regulate and moderate dangerous content comprehensively should be regarded with extreme skepticism.
Experts: Xi's Science and Technology Speech Echoes and Updates Deng Xiaoping
Like his predecessors, Chinese leader Xi Jinping's speeches to high-level gatherings are often occasions for significant signaling about the government's priorities and plans, not least in the area of cyberspace and advanced technology. In recent years, he has emphasized "indigenous innovation" in "core technologies" at a time when tensions with the United States have put China's access to key components in question. This month, on Sept.
Xi Jinping's Sept. 2020 Speech on Science and Technology Development (Translation)
[Chinese-language original] TRANSLATION Speech at a Scientists’ Forum Sept. 11, 2020 Xi Jinping Today we have convened a scientists' forum to hear everyone's ideas and suggestions for promoting innovation-driven development and accelerating scientific and technological (S&T) innovation during the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan and beyond.
Transcript from Open Future: The Way Forward on 5G
On Thursday, August 27, 2020, the CNAS Technology and National Security Program hosted a virtual discussion on regaining momentum in 5G through the use of open interfaces and modular architecture. It was held in conjunction with the release of the CNAS report, "Open Future: The Way Forward on 5G." This event featured Elsa B.
Digital Dictators
The rise of digital technology initially ushered in a wave of optimism about the future of democracy. Today, however, a different reality has emerged as authoritarian regimes learned to take advantage of these tools for repressive goals. How does technology empower these regimes? Expert Andrea Kendall-Taylor explains the dangerous ways modern dictatorships have leveraged digital technologies to strengthen their hold on power both online and on the ground. Learn more:
Open Future
Executive Summary Communication networks are the central nervous system of the 21st century economy. The fifth generation of wireless—5G—will be essential to and inseparable from all we do. In many ways, we are already there. What for most was an abstract concept became all too real during the COVID-19 crisis. The coronavirus pandemic has underscored the critical importance of communication networks: They are integral to our daily lives and our ability to function economically and as a society.
Is Seeing Still Believing? Synthetic Media and Illiberal Uses of Technology
At this exercise on June 15, 2020, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) challenged the audience to spot the difference between real and synthetic media (digital forgeries). How will artificial intelligence (AI) enable media manipulation and advance illiberal uses of technology? Watch: Learn more:
A Message to the CNAS Community
Dear Members of the CNAS Community, The protests that have swept across all 50 states call for change that is both modest and monumental. Modest, by condemning the killing of George Floyd and so many others, acknowledging that black lives matter, and demanding an end to racial injustice. And yet monumental, in that America in its long history has never expiated the racial sins that attended its founding. The thousands who fill our streets aim to right that historic wrong.
Are AI-Powered Killer Robots Inevitable?
In war, speed kills. The soldier who is a split second quicker on the draw may walk away from a firefight unscathed; the ship that sinks an enemy vessel first may spare itself a volley of missiles. In cases where humans can't keep up with the pace of modern conflict, machines step in.
Trump Wants Answers on the Pandemic’s Origins. Politicizing Intelligence Won’t Help.
Where did the coronavirus come from? The Trump administration says it wants answers to this question—but conflicting statements from U.S. leaders are further undercutting the credibility of U.S. intelligence on the pandemic. Even more worrisome, reporting suggests that political pressure may be shaping U.S. intelligence analysis on the subject. This is dangerous for many reasons.
Trump Wants Answers on the Pandemic’s Origins. Politicizing Intelligence Won’t Help.
Where did the coronavirus come from? The Trump administration says it wants answers to this question—but conflicting statements from U.S. leaders are further undercutting the credibility of U.S. intelligence on the pandemic. Even more worrisome, reporting suggests that political pressure may be shaping U.S. intelligence analysis on the subject. This is dangerous for many reasons.
More women in government roles leads to greater national security
The United States is facing an unprecedented economic and health crisis due to the coronavirus. Decisions made now will have repercussions that last for years. Recovery from this crisis will require sound policy focused on national security. Involving more women within the decision making process is key to achieving sound policy choices for the future. When it comes to national security, women leaders drive better choices.
China’s Cybersecurity Reviews Eye 'Supply Chain Security' in 'Critical' Industries [Translation]
Twelve Chinese government agencies today published an important set of rules that lay out a system of reviews for security and supply chain reliability that any products and services used by so-called “critical information infrastructure” (CII) operators will need to pass. The full text is translated below. The “Cybersecurity Review Measures,” are to go into effect June 1, exactly three years after China’s Cybersecurity Law took effect.
The Case for a Pacific Deterrence Initiative
When war broke out in Ukraine in 2014 the Department of Defense moved swiftly to invest billions in near-term enhancements in Europe to address growing military-operational shortfalls.
Why Doesn’t the U.S. Have Its Own Huawei?
The Trump administration has tried one tactic after another to confront the rise of Huawei, the Chinese company that has been fighting to establish a dominant position in 5G. To date, American attempts to browbeat allies and partners into shunning the company’s equipment have proved ineffective. When it comes to countering Huawei’s dominance, White House officials have offered a disorganized assortment of options to respond, and often muddled the messaging.
Great Powers Must Talk to Each Other About AI
Even as they compete, major militaries have reason to cooperate: to avoid misunderstanding and to establish best practices and pragmatic parameters. Imagine an underwater drone armed with nuclear warheads and capable of operating autonomously. Now imagine that drone has lost its way and wandered into another state’s territorial waters. A recipe for disaster? Perhaps. But science fiction? Sadly, no.
Great Powers Must Talk to Each Other About AI
Reports December 17, 2019 The American AI Century: A Blueprint for Action Foreword By Robert O. Work We find ourselves in the midst of a technological tsunami that is inexorably reshaping all aspects of our lives. Whether it be in agriculture, finan...
The 5G fight of the decade
This year will bring one of the most rapid advances in the deployment of 5G and its applications. In the coming decade, 5G could create paradigm change in our digital economy and society. 5G is much more than a faster upgrade from 4G. It enables quantum leaps in speed and presents unique potential with its low latency. 5G will open up new possibilities in health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, and more, adding up to trillions of dollars to the global economy.
The American AI Century: A Blueprint for Action
Foreword By Robert O. Work We find ourselves in the midst of a technological tsunami that is inexorably reshaping all aspects of our lives. Whether it be in agriculture, finance, commerce, health care, or diplomatic and military activities, rapid technological advancements in fields like advanced computing, quantum science, AI, synthetic biology, 5G, miniaturization, and additive manufacturing are changing the old ways of doing business.
The China Challenge
The United States and China are strategic competitors, and technology is at the center of this competition, critical to economic strength and national security. The United States benefits from collaboration with China—including student and tech expert exchanges, certain Chinese investments and interlinked supply chains, and bilateral trade flows.
The American AI Century: A Blueprint for Action
This is a preview of the forthcoming report American AI Century. The full study, which contains in-depth analysis of the issues and details of the corresponding policy recommendations, will be published on December 17 and be available here. Executive Summary The United States excels when it pursues big ideas. It is one of the few countries in the world that can rally its resources and its human capital to achieve the most ambitious of goals.
Securing Our 5G Future
Executive Summary Today’s advances in fifth-generation telecommunications (5G) promise a transformational technology that is critical to enabling the next industrial revolution. 5G will provide massive benefits for future economic development and national competitiveness, including certain military applications. 5G is far more than simply a faster iteration of 4G.
A new Sino-Russian high-tech partnership emerges as US tensions mount
A new Sino-Russian high-tech partnership emerges as US tensions mount China and Russia have not only expanded their military cooperation but are also undertaking more extensive technological cooperation, including in 5G, artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, new media and the digital economy.
China, Russia deepen technological ties
Statements for the press following the talks with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. (Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia/Released) China and Russia are deepening and expanding their ties — economic, military, technological — as external pressures limit their access to overseas markets and technology.
China’s Military Biotech Frontier: CRISPR, Military-Civil Fusion, and the New Revolution in Military Affairs
Introduction China’s national strategy of military-civil fusion (军民融合, junmin ronghe) has highlighted biology as a priority. [1] It is hardly surprising that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is looking to leverage synergies among defense, scientific, and commercial developments in biological interdisciplinary (生物交叉, shengwu jiaocha) technologies.
China’s Military Biotech Frontier: CRISPR, Military-Civil Fusion, and the New Revolution in Military Affairs
China’s national strategy of military-civil fusion (军民融合, junmin ronghe) has highlighted biology as a priority. It is hardly surprising that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is looking to leverage synergies among defense, scientific, and commercial developments in biological interdisciplinary (生物交叉, shengwu jiaocha) technologies.
China, Russia Deepen Technological Ties
With joint dialogues, incubators, and technology parks, Beijing and Moscow are seeking to overcome deficiencies and compete with the United States. China and Russia are deepening and expanding their ties — economic, military, technological — as external pressures limit their access to overseas markets and technology. Both countries hope the collaboration will help to compensate for domestic deficiencies and to compete successfully with the United States in today’s critical technologies.
China, Russia Deepen Technological Ties
Edit This Favorite Name: Category: Share: Yes No, Keep Private China, Russia Deepen Technological Ties 7 hours ago (0 Comments) By Samuel Bendett & Elsa Kania | October 4, 2019 | Defense One With joint dialogues, incubators, and technology parks, Beijing and Moscow are seeking to overcome deficiencies and compete with the United States.
Beyond the Arms Race Narrative: AI & China with Helen Toner & Elsa Kania
August 30, 2019 By Elsa B. Kania and Helen Toner Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print
Weaponizing Biotech: How China's Military Is Preparing for a 'New Domain of Warfare'
Skip to Content Sponsor Message Sponsor Message Insights & Reports We may be on the verge of a brave new world indeed. Today’s advances in biotechnology and genetic engineering have exciting applications in medicine — yet also alarming implications, including for military affairs. China’s national strategy of military-civil fusion (军民融合) has highlighted biology as a priority, and the People’s Liberation Army could be at the forefront of expanding and exploiting this knowledge.
The Chinese Military Reforms and Transforms in the "New Era"
Introduction The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been undergoing a far-reaching transformation with strategic implications for the military balance in the region and beyond. Starting in 2015, the PLA has been undertaking historic reforms that have involved extensive restructuring of the force.
Hong Kong Protests Escalate Amid Crackdown
August 13, 2019 By Daniel Kliman, Kristine Lee, Chris Dougherty, Elsa B. Kania, Kara Frederick, and Ainikki Riikonen The standoff between the Beijing-backed government of Hong Kong and protesters concerned about an erosion of the city's autonomy continues to intensify.
Major Themes in China’s 2019 National Defense White Paper
Introduction On July 24, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) issued its first new national defense white paper (NDWP) since 2015 (Xinhua).
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