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Articles by Edward Harrison
Bank Earnings Will Keep US Equities Rallying
US is working on doubling aid to Argentina to $40 billion by tapping private funding sources WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration is looking to provide an additional $20 billion in financing for Argentina through a mix of financing from sovereign funds and the private sector. That would come on top of the $20 billion credit swap line that the U.S. Treasury pledged to Argentine …
FRBが今利下げする理由－米経済の多くの部分が既にリセッション状態
米国が既にリセッション（景気後退）に陥っていると断言するのは挑発的な主張かもしれない。しかし、経済全体に当てはまらないにせよ、米国の広い地域や層では既に後退局面にあるといえる。 米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）がどの程度利下げを行うかが焦点となっているが、そもそもなぜ利下げが急務とされるのかを理解する必要がある。 就労時間を増やしたい、またその必要があると考える就労者の比率（不完全就業率）上昇、若年層や黒人の失業率上昇といった指標は、多くの世帯が既に深刻な経済的困難に直面していることを示している。これらは典型的に景気後退の先行指標とされる。さらに消費者調査などのソフトデータも、今後12カ月以内に景気後退が到来すると示唆する結果を示している。 ではなぜ米経済全体は持ちこたえているのか。それは所得上位10%の富裕層が現在、米国の個人消費全体のほぼ半分を占めているためだ。富裕層の状況は良好だ。...
Nvidia and Tesla Challenge Tech’s Power Play: Everything Risk
Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. stood out in what was a stellar earnings season for most of the US technology megacaps. The two companies are outliers in more ways than one among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks. • Megacap tech companies have been rewarding investors not just for their growth potential but also by acting as havens during times of turbulence. That’s not the case, however, for Nvidia and Tesla.
Nvidia and Tesla Challenge Tech’s Power Play: Everything Risk
Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. stood out in what was a stellar earnings season for most of the US technology megacaps. The two companies are outliers in more ways than one among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks. • Megacap tech companies have been rewarding investors not just for their growth potential but also by acting as havens during times of turbulence. That’s not the case, however, for Nvidia and Tesla.
Dip buyers set to pounce as tariff deadline nears, Markets Pulse survey shows
Strategists urge caution with stocks at record highs Article content Even if the run-up to this month’s deadline for U.S. trade deals weighs on stocks, bargain hunters will step in to stem losses, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed. Sign In or Create an Account Article content Nearly two-thirds of 168 respondents said buying the dip will prove profitable beyond the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume.
Dip Buyers Set to Pounce as Tariff Deadline Nears, Markets Pulse Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Even if the run-up to this month’s deadline for US trade deals weighs on stocks, bargain hunters will step in to stem losses, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed.
Risks Mount for US Financial Assets as Treasuries Teeter
2 hours ago Trump's ambush versus Ramaphosa's charm Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu Live reporter in Washington DC Image source, Reuters That was an extraordinary meeting between South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump.
Sell in May And Go Away (And Then Sell Again?)
This article is for subscribers only. The latest data confirm we are now in a stagflationary environment. And since inflation is like kryptonite for equity-investor Supermen, the post-tariff announcement sell-off was just the first salvo. We’re likely to see a lot more bloodletting in equities than we’ve seen so far, especially if we have the recession that looks increasingly likely.
The Stagflation Risks Are Bigger Than the Fed Thinks
1 hour ago Elon Musk And Tim Walz Exchange Barbs As Walz Celebrates Tesla Stock Slide Former vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., and the world’s richest man Elon Musk traded disses over Tesla stock’s brutal start to 2025, as Musk’s electric vehicle brand navigates challenges on Wall Street and beyond while its boss Musk allies with President Donald Trump. Key … 4 hours ago ‘The Floodgates Open’—Bitcoin And Crypto Brace For A $9 Trillion Fed Price Flip 03/19 update below.
Extreme Political Periods Can Impact Long-Term Returns
This article is for subscribers only. The attempt at imposing martial law in South Korea this week looks like another clear sign we’re in a political climate that’s sweeping aside some of the usual norms. What’s happened there is just one of many unexpected twists in geopolitics this year. One after the other, as voters went to the polls around the world, governments were swept out of power or saw support siphoned off by insurgent parties tapping into discontent with the status quo.
The Upside Risks of a Second Trump Administration
This article is for subscribers only. The most defining element of Donald Trump the politician is unpredictability. The President-elect clearly looks at his ability to zig when everyone else would zag as his ace in the hole, a superpower that allows him combat adversaries and competitors. For markets, with their long-held disdain for uncertainty, that’s typically considered a recipe for unwanted volatility. Yet we’ve seen the S&P 500 at record highs again and again since his election.
How Low Can The Fed Go With Rates?
That’s a direct quote from the Kansas City Fed’s President Jeffrey Schmid. In that one statement he brings up several things that can affect asset markets going forward. For starters, he calls into question the pace of rate cuts that both the Fed has signaled and that markets are pricing in. But he goes further and wonders aloud how low the Fed can really go.
Market Focus Now Turns to the Economy, Inflation and the Fed
This article is for subscribers only. You can almost feel it now. After months of market speculation about who would become the next US president and what that would mean for markets, we’re coming back to the present. Don’t get me wrong, the so-called Trump Trade still dominates headlines and causes gyrations in stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and the US dollar. But the price action will get more muted.
It’s Not Just the Trump Trade. It’s the Goldilocks Trade Too
This article is for subscribers only. As the US presidential election remains a toss-up right down to the wire, a lot of people are talking about moves in US asset prices as a “Trump Trade.” Yet I’m not so sure that’s what we’re seeing.
Not Everyone Is Enjoying the No-Landing Economy
This article is for subscribers only. No-landing US economy? Well actually, if you look at the latest polls, the majority of Americans feel worse off than they did four years ago at the height of the pandemic. And while partisanship and the lingering effects of inflation certainly have a lot to do with it, the reality is that there’s a stark divide in the US economy between haves and have-nots. I want to delve into this in today’s newsletter.
No Landing Is Good News, But Mind the Market Swings
This article is for subscribers only. You’d think signs that the US economy has once again defied recession worries would be a good thing. And it is. But it comes with a side dose of market volatility.
The Fed’s Got Your Back, Equity Investors
1 hour ago Hezbollah is dealing with some disagreement among its ranks over how to respond to a series of devastating attacks on the Lebanese militant group, according to people familiar with the group’s deliberations. With no good options available, the group faces one of the most consequential decisions in …
How This Cycle Ends Is Clearer Than Ever
Business 22 hours ago Paul Krugman Slams Trump's Bitcoin Advocacy: Nobel Laureate Calls It 'Government Bailout Of A Scandal-Ridden Industry' benzinga.com - Aniket Verma • 22h Nobel laureate and renowned economist Paul Krugman stuck to his harsh views on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), calling it "economically useless" and questioning … Business 8 hours ago Morningstar unveils top-tier, bargain stocks to own TheStreet - Dan Weil • 8h Now is a tricky time to invest, but these five stocks trade...
We Have Entered Mania Territory with Nvidia
We Have Entered Mania Territory with Nvidia As Nvidia’s stock price scales new heights, the metrics look unsustainable, especially in comparison with the rest of the market. As the frenzy over …
Nvidia rivals gold as shield against inflation, survey shows Original
Author of the article: Bloomberg News Edward Harrison Published May 13, 2024 • 3 minute read You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account. egg8c07r0]l}9ba8)tpi(c7i_media_dl_1.png Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey May Article content The biggest tech stocks in the United States are not only a bet on innovation, but a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Nvidia Rivals Gold as Shield Against Inflation, Survey Shows
The biggest US tech stocks are not only a bet on innovation but also a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. Gold, the haven of choice for decades, is still seen as the best safeguard against the risk of rising prices, according to 46% of survey participants. But nearly a third said the tech behemoths are their first pick for the role.
Nvidia Rivals Gold as Shield Against Inflation, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- The biggest US tech stocks are not only a bet on innovation but also a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Schwab Faces Fresh Risks in the Zero-Fee Landscape It Shaped
(Bloomberg) -- Charles Schwab Corp. stunned Wall Street in 2019 by slashing trading commissions to zero, forcing its competitors to adapt. The move amounted to a big bet that its bank — rather than its well-known discount brokerage — would keep driving profits. For a while, it worked to perfection. The pandemic hit, interest rates were pinned near historic lows, and Schwab raked in billions as the fees it had forsaken were offset by what the company earned from its banking operation.
Schwab Faces Fresh Risks in the Zero-Fee Landscape It Shaped
Charles Schwab Corp. stunned Wall Street in 2019 by slashing trading commissions to zero, forcing its competitors to adapt. The move amounted to a big bet that its bank — rather than its well-known discount brokerage — would keep driving profits. For a while, it worked to perfection. The pandemic hit, interest rates were pinned near historic lows, and Schwab raked in billions as the fees it had forsaken were offset by what the company earned from its banking operation.
SVBの破綻は世界で最も人気のある安全な資産がリスクフリーでないことを示す
(ブルームバーグ・ビジネスウィーク) -- 最新の米国銀行危機を詳しく調べてみると、その原因は、2008年の金融危機の観点から考えている人には意外なものであったかもしれない。シリコンバレーバンク（SVB）を沈めたのは、貧乏な住宅購入者へのいかがわしい融資ではなかったのだ。SVBを沈めたのは、地球上で最も安全だと思われている有価証券の隠し場所だったのである： 米国債である。 もちろん、政府への融資は、非常に重要な意味においてまったく安全なものだった。アンクルサムは現金があればいいのだ（債務上限という不測の事態はさておき、それについてはまた後日）。しかし、SVBの債券の最終返済日は、通常、数年先である。問題は、その間に価格がどうなるかである。超低金利時代に購入した長期の国債は、金利が上昇すれば、すぐに転売価値を失う可能性が常にあった。しかし、この1年で、その価値は一気に低下してしまった。...
World’s Favorite Risk-Free Asset Is Looking Riskier After SVB
Look deeper into the latest US banking crisis, and the cause may come as a surprise to anyone still thinking in terms of the crash of 2008. It wasn’t dodgy loans to impecunious homebuyers that sank Silicon Valley Bank. It was a stash of what are thought to be the safest securities on Earth: US Treasuries. Those loans to the government were, of course, entirely safe in a very important sense. Uncle Sam is going to be good for the cash.
Schwab's $7 Trillion Empire Built On Low Rates Is Showing Cracks
On the surface, Charles Schwab Corp. being swept up in the worst US banking crisis since 2008 makes little sense. The firm, a half-century mainstay in the brokerage industry, isn’t overexposed to crypto like Silvergate Capital and Signature Bank, nor to startups and venture capital, which felled Silicon Valley Bank. Fewer than 20% of Schwab’s depositors exceed the FDIC’s $250,000 insurance cap, compared with about 90% at SVB.
El imperio de US$7 billones de Charles Schwab está empezando a mostrar grietas
Últimascotizaciones Bloomberg — Charles Schwab Corp, una firma de corretaje bien establecida con más de US$7 billones en activos, se ha visto afectada por la crisis bancaria estadounidense, lo que resulta sorprendente dado que la empresa no está sobreexpuesta a criptodivisas o startups, y sólo un pequeño porcentaje de sus depositantes supera el tope de seguro de la FDIC.
Why crypto is not the future of money
After hitting all-time highs in 2021, cryptocurrency prices haven’t found a definitive floor. And the appeal of crypto’s promise to reinvent money has also reached its limit in a very niche audience. To attract a bigger, more mainstream user base, the new technology’s advocates will have to completely overhaul how they promote it. Imagine your cousin, your dentist or someone else you know who is the least likely to experiment with money or technology. I think about my mother.
What the Wild Swiss Franc Appreciation Really Means
On January 15, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abruptly decided to end its policy of intervening in the foreign exchange market to hold the euro exchange rate with the Swiss franc (CHF) above 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro. All hell broke loose. At one point, the Swiss franc climbed by nearly 40 percent against euro, ending the day almost 20 percent higher, at near parity with the common currency. As the dust settles, the casualties are mounting.
Russian Roulette and the Monetary Policy Bullet
The mess in Russia — including a falling ruble, de facto currency controls, economic contraction, and bank bailouts — is as much about problems specific to Russia as it is about the slowdown in China, the strong dollar, and monetary policy divergence globally. But this has to be worrying for investors looking at emerging markets. In truth, the problems for emerging markets started six years ago, during the depths of the financial crisis.
The Ugly Heart of the European Project
Going into this past weekend, it looked as if the Grexit crisis that had occupied the world’s attention for weeks was finally heading into the final stretch. Under pressure to comply with creditor demands, on Thursday Greece tabled a proposal that contained harsher austerity measures than the proposal that the Greek people had overwhelmingly rejected by referendum just one week prior.
The Greek Referendum Can’t Change Reality
ATHENS — What’s next for Greece in its fight for fiscal and financial stability? In the wake of the decisive “no” by the Greek electorate in the referendum on a new bailout, as well as related events, the negotiating landscape has shifted substantially. The position of the institutions — the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB), if not the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — now looks untenable.
In Praise of Capital Controls
In December 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially endorsed the use of capital controls, which can be used to restrict the flow of funds into and out of a country and its currency. This was an historic shift that has served to de-stigmatize the use of such restrictions as part of a tool kit available to stop a monetary crisis. If anything, the IMF was just catching up to reality; an increasing number of countries are finding that the restrictions do much less harm than good.
Can Greece and the Troika Make the Impossible Possible?
The outcome of negotiations between Greece’s new anti-austerity Greek government and the Troika that is administering their bailout program remains unknown. What is known, however, is that the two sides’ stated goals are mutually incompatible: The Syriza-led government wants debt relief, while the creditors demand repayment. And that means that leading up to February and March, when Greece’s next tranche of money is to be repaid to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be very tense.
FP’s Handy State of the Union Viewing Guide
As his approval ratings jump to as high as 50 percent thanks to a growing economy and steadily declining unemployment, President Barack Obama is expected to focus heavily on domestic policy in tonight’s State of the Union address rather than foreign policy, where crises around the world have raised doubts about the administration’s capacity for handling challenges ranging from the Islamic State to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin.
The Messy Side of Falling Oil Prices
Who doesn’t love falling oil prices? They can be a big boost to the American economy. Because the United States is a net importer of oil, the pickup in disposable income for consumers should more than offset any losses to American oil producers. But this simple math may get a lot more complicated because of the nexus between interest rates and high-cost production from deepwater, shale, and oil sands.
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