Historically, seasonal patterns have been a very reliable ‘roadmap’ for the behavior of a variety of markets over the course of the year. No, they are not perfect, but a good indicator of direction and biases. In the case of rates, the first few months of the year are typically the most bearish and then after May-June rates tend to rally into the end of the year. The chart immediately below portrays that pattern in different long-term timeframes. Well, like the seasons, things have changed.