I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

If Tim Kaine Can Help Clinton in Virginia Even a Bit, It’s a Big Deal

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton's selection of Tim Kaine as her running mate will not excite the progressive base or electrify crowds. But by all other standards for judging a vice-presidential selection, he checks the boxes - and more. He's a senator and former governor who is, at least on paper, prepared for the national stage and the presidency.

Melania Trump, Plagiarism, and How Much Does It Really Matter?

nytimes.com — Nate You know, I thought the same thing when I first saw the article that made me reconsider it. I really do think he checks every relevant box for a vice-presidential candidate. I guess I'll try and go through them briefly, now that I've alluded to their existence.

Confused by Contradictory Polls? Take a Step Back

nytimes.com — It has been a rocky few weeks all over the world. Only a few surprising presidential poll results have broken through in a news cycle dominated by shootings by and of the police, the F.B.I.'s decision not to indict Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump 's vice-presidential pick, more terror in France and an attempted coup in Turkey.

How Much Can Mike Pence Help Donald Trump?

nytimes.com — Here's a good rule about vice-presidential selections: Even when they matter, they usually don't matter much. Donald Trump's newly selected running make, Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, seems even less likely to affect the result than most. He's a relatively safe choice: an experienced but relatively unknown politician from a state that the Republicans were already expected to win.

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Has Shrunk, but She Still Has an Edge

nytimes.com — Toni And the email issue may not resonate quite as much four months from now, especially if Republicans batter it into the ground. Nate It might still resonate quite a bit, but it's hard for it to resonate much more.

Is Donald Trump Winning? Among Whites and Men, for Sure

nytimes.com — Toni Clinton hasn't been polling as well as expected in Nevada - up by 4 points in Nevada, per the Monmouth poll, for example. Nevada was a state that was expected to fall in line fairly easily for Clinton. It has been trending blue for years, and it has a growing Hispanic population.

Biggest Danger For Trump Is Florida

tampabay.com — If demographics are destiny, Donald Trump's political fate could very well be sealed in Florida. It's extremely hard for a Republican to win the presidency without Florida's 29 electoral votes. The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton might capitalize on huge demographic shifts to an extent that Barack Obama never did.

A Clinton Embrace Is Near, but Is Sanders Ready for Prime Time?

nytimes.com — Toni Tuesday seemed to be another reminder that Trump seems to be a gift for Democrats. On a day when Clinton was supposed to take all the heat, Trump accused her of a bribe and later talked about the positive side of a fellow named Saddam Hussein.

Biggest danger for Trump is Florida

staradvertiser.com — By Nate Cohn New York Times If demographics are destiny, Donald Trump's political fate could very well be sealed in Florida. The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn't a "blue" Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left.

The Biggest Danger for Donald Trump: Florida

nytimes.com — If demographics are destiny, Donald Trump 's political fate could very well be sealed in Florida. The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn't a "blue" Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left.
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Jul 26, 2016

I'm not sure New Mexico gets to reference how great its 'labs' are anymore

Jul 26, 2016

@SteveKettmann yeah, there's probably more gop upside there than downside

Jul 26, 2016

@SteveKettmann they are, though they were 20.5% of the electorate in 2012, despite that

Jul 26, 2016

RT @DannyEFreeman: "It is easy to boo, but it is harder to look your kids in the face who would be living under a Donald Trump presidency," says @BernieSanders

Jul 25, 2016

RT @mmurraypolitics: Was a rocky first 30 hours for Democrats in Philly (Sunday thru early afternoon). But they got the primetime hour (and a half) they wanted.


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