I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

Clinton and Trump Tied in North Carolina Poll, With Sharp Educational Divides

nytimes.com — Well-educated white voters are rejecting Republican candidates in North Carolina, and it might just be enough to jeopardize the chances of Donald J. Trump to win the presidency and his party to keep the Senate.

We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Reached Very Different Conclusions.

nytimes.com — How four pollsters, and The Upshot, interpreted 867 poll responses: You've heard of the "margin of error" in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points.

Poll: White voters keep Trump’s hopes alive in must-win Florida - The Santa Fe New Mexican: News

santafenewmexican.com — Donald Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances.

White Voters Keep Trump’s Hopes Alive in Must-Win Florida

nytimes.com — Donald J. Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances. But a new poll, by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College, suggests that Mr. Trump is keeping his hopes alive in Florida, the largest and most diverse of the crucial battleground states.

Introducing the New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll

nytimes.com — The voter registration file is the core of the "big data" that has transformed campaign targeting and analytics over the last decade. It includes detailed information on registered voters in a state, like their age, party, race and vote history (not whom they voted for but how often they voted).

Clinton's Boost From Demographic Change Is Overrated | RealClearPolitics

Demographics, turnout a challenge to Hillary Clinton

startribune.com — The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So why haven't these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead? The biggest reason is that demographic change was an overrated part of Obama's win.

Hispanic and Black Support for Hillary Clinton Is Overrated

nytimes.com — The growing diversity of the electorate has undoubtedly helped the Democrats. However, many people look at these numbers and assume that the preponderance of Democratic gains over the last decade can be attributed to these shifts. That is not so.

Who Is Winning in North Carolina?

nytimes.com — Winning Chances Over Time Shaded areas show uncertainty intervals about the final vote margin, based on historical polling patterns. Wider intervals reflect greater uncertainty. Winning Chances Over Time Shaded areas show uncertainty intervals about the final vote margin, based on historical polling patterns. Wider intervals reflect greater uncertainty.

Who Is Winning in Kentucky?

nytimes.com — Winning Chances Over Time Shaded areas show uncertainty intervals about the final vote margin, based on historical polling patterns. Wider intervals reflect greater uncertainty. Winning Chances Over Time Shaded areas show uncertainty intervals about the final vote margin, based on historical polling patterns. Wider intervals reflect greater uncertainty.
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Sep 25, 2016

Are they going to have to stand in front of that white background? Looks terrible  https://twitter.com/hilaryr/status/780138214749302788 

Sep 25, 2016

The Dems will have a 'demographic firewall' if and/or when Florida or N.C. becomes a 'lean D' state.

Sep 25, 2016

This tweet is supposed to make Dems feel good. In fact, it should do the opposite: no demographic firewall.  https://twitter.com/EricBoehlert/status/780062181236682752 

Sep 25, 2016

RT @PollsAndVotes: Must say again how much I like this graphic. Field period is ignored by all others, including me. And I like the co… https://t.co/8beQNUhHxv

Sep 25, 2016

RT @williamjordann: The latest 2-way polls by fieldwork dates, with new WaPo-ABC. Not a whole lot appears to have changed over the pas… https://t.co/yTOmZl1jcY

Sep 25, 2016

RT @baseball_ref: Best FIP in Live-Ball era by starting pitchers (min. 400 IP) Jose Fernandez - 2.43 Clayton Kershaw - 2.54 Sandy Koufax -…

Sep 25, 2016

Last ABC/Post poll had Clinton+10 among RVs with a 5 pt LV penalty. New ABC/Post has a tie among RVs, with Clinton gaining 2 from LVs. K.


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