I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

What Are the Chances That Democrats Retake the House?

nytimes.com — ■ Nearly all of the seats or states that seemed like "tossups" early in the race are won by one party. ■ Seats or states that ought to be safe in an ordinary year surprisingly come in play.

What a Clinton Landslide Map Would Look Like, and How Trump Could Still Rally

nytimes.com — Toni But there'd be no guarantee that Trump would benefit from a terrorist attack, or at least benefit significantly. Nate Well, who knows what would happen. But that's the point. I think it's at least imaginable that it would reset the race on terms favorable to Trump, and give him another chance to present himself as a plausible president.

The state of the Clinton-Trump race: Is it over?

economictimes.indiatimes.com — By Nate Cohn It has been three weeks since Democrats gathered for their convention, and Hillary Clinton still holds a large and consistent lead in national and battleground state polls. Her national lead over Donald Trump of 7 to 8 percentage points could slip a bit over the next few weeks.

The State of the Clinton-Trump Race: Is It Over?

nytimes.com — It has been three weeks since Democrats gathered for their convention, and Hillary Clinton still holds a large and consistent lead in national and battleground state polls. Her national lead over Donald J. Trump of seven to eight percentage points could slip a bit over the next few weeks.

El voto latino quizá no sea tan decisivo en las elecciones de Estados Unidos

nytimes.com — Toni Beyond Florida, as you've demonstrated, people have undercounted how many whites are in the electorate. And there's a realistic path to win by dominating with working-class whites. Hispanics tend to be concentrated in states like California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Illinois - states that are not in play.

Donald Trump’s Red-State Problem

nytimes.com — If you looked only at the blue states, you probably wouldn't think that Donald J. Trump was in huge trouble. The recent 10-point polling deficits in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania may sting but aren't jaw-dropping. But the red states are a totally different story.

A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem

nytimes.com — There's an interesting new entry in political polling: the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll. It's different from other surveys because it's a panel, which means it recontacts the same voters over and over. In 2012, a similar panel study done by RAND was considered a big success.

Why a meaningful shift in the Trump-Clinton race might be at hand

lasvegassun.com — Andrew Harnik / AP Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the past two days.

Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days. Three national surveys - from Fox, NBC/WSJ and Marist/McClatchy - showed Mrs.

Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

nytimes.com — Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days. Three national surveys - from Fox, NBC/WSJ and Marist/McClatchy - showed Mrs.
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Aug 24, 2016

@MadaGasp 3) the CNN NC poll was tweetable. i didn't tweet it bc i wasn't there until long after it came out

Aug 24, 2016

@MadaGasp 2) 2) the fl poll is terrible, both methodologically and an outlier; same reason i didn't tweet terrible c+13 FL/ c+19 in VA

Aug 24, 2016

@MadaGasp 1) the upi poll is terrible; i've never tweeted it. fwiw, it shows clinton ahead.

Aug 24, 2016

We still get the wall though, right?

Aug 24, 2016

@ceciliakang i should have suggested wallabies! walla is in the name!

Aug 23, 2016

RT @harrisj: Remember the 2004 conspiracy theory that George W. Bush was wearing a device under his suit?  http://www.salon.com/2004/10/30/bulge_5/ 


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