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Articles by Fabrice Pothier
We are not adequately prepared for the next war
Europe would not be able to withstand a protracted war at present because modern warfare relies on mass-produced, low-cost technology. Without rapid adjustments to procurement, industry and strategy, military superiority over adversaries in a war of attrition could quickly evaporate. 27. April 2026 27. April 2026 Fabrice Pothier is CEO of the geopolitical advisory firm Rasmussen Global. (Joachim Sander Jacobsen) Sign up now and continue reading immediately No credit card details required.
Europe’s prosperity and competitiveness at risk: Why ReSourceEU must deliver
The European Commission is about to unveil its ReSourceEU strategy. It comes at a critical time. China is increasingly weaponising its dominant position in critical raw material (CRM) value chains, while the United States races to close the gap. Europe needs to take clear and decisive actions if it is to secure its prosperity and competitiveness. The European Commission is preparing to unveil its ReSourceEU strategy. It comes at a moment when Europe can no longer afford hesitation.
Putting Putin in a "steel box" – this is what the deterrence strategy means for Europe
Opinion Fabrice Pothier French political expert, CEO Rasmussen Global opinion.informer.text Articles published in the "Opinions" section reflect the point of view of the author and may not reflect the position of the LIGA.net editors
A Harris presidency could be a reset for Ukraine
Fabrice Pothier is the CEO of Rasmussen Global. “Kamala Harris, the U.S. presidential candidate” seems to have shut down many of the reservations that her Democratic Party and plenty of observers had regarding “Kamala Harris, the vice president.” Of course, only time will tell if this is simply the result of a post-President Joe Biden honeymoon, or the actual reality of a politician now freed from the shadow of the president’s office and team.
Helping Ukraine Win the Drone War
When visiting Ukraine’s drone factories, you are struck by the mix of Do-It-Yourself ingenuity with cutting-edge technology. It's the same engineers and entrepreneurs tinkering in workshops who test their creations live on the frontlines directly against the Russian enemy. As always, war is driving innovation – with Ukrainian forces successfully integrating drones into their operations since the beginning of the conflict. However, the grim reality is innovation happens on both sides.
Ayudar a Ucrania a ganar la guerra de los drones
Aquí es donde entran en juego los socios de Ucrania. Si bien el año pasado se centró la atención en el suministro de sistemas de armamento y municiones, ahora debería incrementarse con esfuerzos para canalizar componentes críticos a los cientos de fabricantes de drones de Ucrania. Debería organizarse urgentemente un nuevo Ramstein para drones. Podría liderarlo la Unión Europea, que tiene la capacidad de movilizar a las empresas privadas del sector tecnológico a la escala necesaria.
A web of security guarantees could give Ukraine all the help it needs
With a president who is a former actor, it is tempting to view Ukraine’s recent defence against Russia as a sequel. Call the first year survival; the second, the long war. On my visits to Ukraine, no one explicitly calls it that. But all the main characters in this epic struggle are preparing for that long war. The question facing the leadership in Kyiv is how to persevere against an enemy who cannot win, but who nevertheless refuses to give up.
It’s time the West committed to Ukraine for the long haul
Its cafes may be buzzing, but the mood in Kyiv is downbeat these days. True, Ukrainians have made it through a winter that brought the economy and society to the brink. The Ukrainian army is holding against grinding Russian pressure. Yet the message from some Western leaders, that Ukraine cannot expect much more support after its spring offensive, seems to have sunk in. Russia’s war against Ukraine is reaching a crucial moment.
La cita de la OTAN con la historia
Todas las cumbres de la OTAN suelen presentarse como históricas. Pero algunas suponen un cambio más drástico que otras. Para que la cumbre de la OTAN en Madrid pueda calificarse de verdaderamente histórica, los dirigentes tendrán que ir más allá de los titulares sobre la unidad y empezar a sentar las bases de un rol estratégico a largo plazo. Lo primero y más inmediato es que la O de la OTAN debe significar algo más tangible para Ucrania.
La cita de la OTAN con la historia
Todas las cumbres de la OTAN suelen presentarse como históricas. Pero algunas suponen un cambio más drástico que otras. Para que la cumbre de la OTAN en Madrid pueda calificarse de verdaderamente histórica, los dirigentes tendrán que ir más allá de los titulares sobre la unidad y empezar a sentar las bases de un rol estratégico a largo plazo. Lo primero y más inmediato es que la O de la OTAN debe significar algo más tangible para Ucrania.
NATO can help Ukraine win this war without doing the fighting
The North Atlantic Alliance was created with two basic purposes: prevent a major war in Europe, and, should this fail, manage escalation. Sadly, with the war in Ukraine, it has failed on both counts. Would it not be for the fortitude of the Ukrainian people and the support of some allies, Russian troops would be massed by now at the NATO border with missiles angrily pointed at its cities.
La OTAN puede ayudar a Ucrania a ganar sin entrar en el conflicto armado
La Alianza del Atlántico Norte se creó con dos propósitos básicos: evitar una gran guerra en Europa y, en caso de que esto fracasara, gestionar la escalada. Lamentablemente, con la guerra de Ucrania, ha fracasado en ambos aspectos. Si no fuera por la fortaleza del pueblo ucranio y el apoyo de algunos aliados, las tropas rusas estarían ya concentradas en la frontera de la OTAN con misiles apuntando a sus ciudades.
La OTAN puede ayudar a Ucrania a ganar sin entrar en el conflicto armado
La Alianza del Atlántico Norte se creó con dos propósitos básicos: evitar una gran guerra en Europa y, en caso de que esto fracasara, gestionar la escalada. Lamentablemente, con la guerra de Ucrania, ha fracasado en ambos aspectos. Si no fuera por la fortaleza del pueblo ucranio y el apoyo de algunos aliados, las tropas rusas estarían ya concentradas en la frontera de la OTAN con misiles apuntando a sus ciudades.
Cyber warfare - call it what it is
In “Don’t call it warfare. West grapples with response to Ukraine cyber aggressions” (January 18), Laurens Cerulus reports that cyberattacks should be treated as anything but acts of war. However, some of this thinking misses the point, and by continuing to follow this line, Western governments give our main adversaries — mainly China, Russia and Iran — a significant advantage.
Key Drivers of Defence Innovation and Operational Advantage
Simona R. Soare & Fabrice Pothier International Institute for Strategic Studies November 15, 2021 The ability to develop and integrate emerging and disruptive technologies in defence is rapidly becoming a metric of success in the global competition for power. In this paper, Simona R. Soare and Fabrice Pothier provide a systematic conceptualisation of defence innovation.
Why the new European Commission president should launch the first-ever EU defense whitepaper
European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen’s in-tray of burning issues keep on expanding, as she needs to cater to different political groups and member states. It would be tempting to see European defense as not needing her attention. Indeed, after decades of neglect, broken promises and false starts, member states have been reinvesting in defense, and even the European Union is now seriously chipping in with the European Defence Fund.
Pedaling the European dream
SANTANDER, Spain — My decision to cycle along the old Santiago de Compostela route — which runs 700 kilometers from southern France to northern Spain — this summer struck most of my colleagues and friends as an unpleasant and unnecessary homework assignment. But my trip, challenging as it was, had a serious purpose: to meet people I otherwise would not, and listen to their thoughts about Europe. I asked them three simple questions: What is Europe for you?
Putin routinely steps over NATO’s red lines
Russian President Vladimir Putin | Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images Letter to the editor Putin routinely steps over NATO’s red lines The deployment of NATO forces was a thoroughly considered decision, to signal to Putin that future aggressive behaviour will bear a great cost. By Fabrice Pothier 7/20/18, 3:03 PM CET Updated 7/20/18, 3:09 PM CET I consider Dmitri Trenin not only one of the foremost Russian strategic thinkers but also a mentor and a friend.
Macron, l’américain?
While French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump may be worlds apart, Fabrice Pothier examines the issues on which they share common ground. By Fabrice Pothier, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Defence Policy and Strategy US President Donald J. Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron are worlds apart: one is an impulsive populist, the other a cerebral centrist. Yet in this case, opposites appear to attract.
An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War
The debate in Washington and European capitals has recently centered on how many more troops will be sent to Afghanistan in 2009 as part of a military surge. Gilles Dorronsoro, Afghanistan expert and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, argued that such a tactical adjustment is unlikely to make much of a difference in a country where the basic population-to-troops ratio is estimated at approximately 430 people per foreign soldier. The real question is how combat troops should be used.
Why Europe needs US-style primaries
great idea! i hope somebody can pressure the authoritarians in the EU to implement something like this! we could use that on the national level too, in austria the heads of the parties also don t get elected by the membership, they are appointed by party elites.
Spain’s Catalan crisis: None of Europe’s business
SANTANDER, Spain — I have a great deal of respect for Richard Youngs’ insightful writing, especially as Europe-minded Brits are becoming increasingly rare these days. But his recent piece, “EU needs a stronger response to the Catalonia crisis” (November 3), is based on shaky premises and, worse, would set a dangerous precedent for European democracies.
In troubled times, FC Barcelona defines modern Catalonia
No other sporting institution in the world has been more emotionally affected by the political crisis unleashed in Spain over the Catalan question than FC Barcelona. Barca, as it is popularly known, has for much of its modern history been more than just one of the world’s leading football clubs. It is a social, cultural and political phenomenon — mes que un club, as its motto goes — and its sense of identity is framed by Catalan nationalism.
Macron’s European vision
Fabrice Pothier interprets French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent speech as heralding a bold and ambitious – if not essentially new – strategy for French leadership in the European Union. By Fabrice Pothier, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Defence Policy and Strategy On Tuesday 26 September at Paris-Sorbonne University, President Emmanuel Macron gave a pro-European speech of a sort seldom heard in France.
Can Franco-German cooperation deliver a new European defence?
While Europe could certainly do with more capabilities and cooperation, a more fundamental change of strategic mindset in Paris and Berlin is required if Europe is to build a more autonomous defence capability. Fabrice Pothier looks beyond recent statements and announcements to examine what their true policy positions are.
NATO and Trump
May 23, 2017 NATO and Trump By Fabrice Pothier and Alexander Vershbow Read the Publication (PDF) A turbulent security environment in Europe and strong rhetoric from President Trump have brought renewed attention to NATO, its role in dealing with shared security challenges, and the future of the United States’ relationship with its allies. Front and center are legitimate questions about commitments to defense burden sharing, as well as NATO’s role in counterterrorism.
An Area-Access Strategy for NATO
Without a credible plan for reinforcement, the Alliance’s much-celebrated eastern tripwires could rapidly become sitting ducks. With the decisions taken at the Warsaw Summit in July 2016, NATO crossed a new symbolic threshold. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, NATO will deploy, on a quasi-permanent basis, troops on the eastern flank of the Alliance.
The Trump Effect: One Path To A New NATO
The alliance must overcome three hurdles to revitalize trust and the transatlantic relationship, former senior NATO officials write. The upcoming NATO Leaders’ Meeting in Brussels on May 25 will be the first major gathering between President Donald Trump and fellow NATO allies. Even before his inauguration, Trump shook the foundations of NATO more than any of his predecessors.
NATO survival will depend on Germany
US Defence Minister James Mattis greets officials as he attends a NATO defence ministers meetings at NATO headquarters in Brussels on February 15, 2017 | Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images Opinion NATO survival will depend on Germany Europe is $100 billion short of strategic autonomy. Berlin could close that gap.
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