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Articles by Farrukh Saleem
What has changed?
Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz addresses an inauguration ceremony of electric buses in Lahore, on October 3, 2025.— Screengrab via Geo News February 2024. Maryam Nawaz took oath as the chief minister of Punjab. More than two and a half years on, this is the question that matters: What has changed in the lives of Punjab’s 128 million people? Not how many schemes have been announced. Not how many projects carry her name. What has changed? Has service delivery improved?
The Rs76 trillion question
A representational image showing a young girl carrying an infant. — Reuters/File KARACHI: In 2019, the Nobel Prize in Economics went to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer for their experimental approach to reducing poverty. In 2024, the prize went to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A Robinson for their research on how institutions shape prosperity. Six economists. Two Nobel Prizes. One conclusion: Poverty is not about a lack of resources. Bad policies keep people poor.
Europe’s broken bargain
uropean Union flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, April 10, 2019. — Reuters For 70 years, Europe ran on a bargain. The young paid for the old. America paid for the defence. Now both halves of that bargain are coming apart at the same time. Let’s start with the young. In 2004, the median European was 39.3 years old. Now, that number is 44.7 years. In Italy, it is 48.7 years. The EU had 272 million people of working age in 2009. By 2022, 265 million.
Pakistan 2027
Security and media officials gather in front of the Parliament House building in Islamabad. — AFP/File By the end of 2027, Pakistan will have the same map but a very different political structure. Pakistan’s current structure has produced three political fortresses: the PML-N in Punjab, the PPP in Sindh, and the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Between the birth of the 18th Amendment in 2010 and 2026, Islamabad’s debt has grown from Rs10 trillion to Rs100 trillion. The trajectory is unsustainable.
Brain drain — or a statistical exaggeration?
This Representational image shows people standing at the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi. — AFP/File KARACHI: Of the 1.87 million Pakistanis reported to have gone abroad for employment during 2024–2026, approximately 1.24 million went to Saudi Arabia. In 2024, just 6.7 percent of registered emigrants were classified as highly skilled or highly qualified. Parliamentary reporting identifies 90,406 emigrants in selected professional categories over the three-year period.
Comment: A mineral framework
A worker holds a rock at a gold mine. — Reuters/File Minerals are present — agreements are absent. For 78 years, Pakistan has sat on substantial mineral wealth. Yet, much of this wealth remains underground. We have spent decades arguing over who controls the resources instead of agreeing on how to develop them. Minerals buried underground create no jobs, pay no taxes and earn no dollars.
Advisory council’s 30-day test
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi chairs the first meeting of the province’s advisory council following the imposition of governor’s rule. — Screengrab via YouTube/Geo News KARACHI: Peshawar is budgeted to receive Rs1.789 trillion from Islamabad this fiscal year. That works out to Rs149 billion a month. That translates into Rs25,327 per household every month. Or Rs303,600 per household every year. The question is: What will the 11-member Advisory Council do with this money?
Redesigning the economy
Representational image of an under-construction road. — The News/File On April 8, 2010, Pakistan’s National Assembly passed the 18th Amendment to the constitution. At the time, Pakistan’s public debt and liabilities stood at approximately Rs10 trillion. Today, they stand at nearly Rs100 trillion. A tenfold increase in just 16 years. This trajectory is unsustainable.
Will emergency protect livelihoods?
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi (left) and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi address a joint press conference following a provincial apex committee meeting on October 12, 2026. — YouTube/Geo News/screengrab Terrorism takes lives and destroys livelihoods. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa pays a heavy economic price for terrorism. The estimated annual loss could be as high as 4-6 per cent of the province’s GDP -- roughly Rs600 billion a year.
Comment: Pakistan has a new economic address
The World Bank building in Washington DC. — Reuters/File KARACHI: The number is 48 percent. The World Bank’s October 2026 economic update reports that Pakistan accounts for 48 percent of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) region.
Redesigning the federation
Pakistani soldiers stand guard in Bannu, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa July 2, 2014. — Reuters Islamabad says Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not delivering security. KP says Islamabad determines security policy without adequately involving KP. Both sides accuse the other of possessing authority without accepting responsibility. That is fundamentally a ‘governance-design problem’.
Comment: CM challenges Centre’s counterterrorism doctrine
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa CM Sohail Afridi addresses the participants of the long march in Karak on October 4, 2026. — Screengrab via Facebook@KPChiefMinister Here is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa CM Sohail Afridi’s diagnosis: Terrorism in KP mainly results from federal policies, not a failure of provincial governance. CM Afridi’s conclusion is that military operations, drone strikes and displacement are counterproductive and that the KP government must participate in formulating a counterterrorism policy.
Where did the money go?
This image shows a person counting Pakistan currency notes. — AFP/File Between 2010 and 2026, the federal government sent a total of Rs56 trillion to Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta. Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta confirmed receiving the entire sum. What happened to Rs56 trillion after they reached Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta? No one is showing the ledger. Between 2010 and 2026, the federal government sent an equivalent of Rs14 lakh for each and every Pakistani household.
Comment: PTI, PML-N and PPP
PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari (left) meets PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif (right) in Islamabad on November 22, 2022. — X/@FarhatullahB Reform yourselves. Otherwise, someone else will do it for you. Please stop fighting over who controls what — and start competing over who delivers what. Pakistan needs the PTI, PML-N and PPP more than ever. But, the PTI, PML-N and PPP need to outgrow the political model that made them dependent on monopolising territory and patronage.
Comment: Containers are not a policy
Supporters of PTI throw stones at paramilitary soldiers on top of shipping containers during a protest demanding the release of former prime minister Imran Khan in the Red Zone area in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. — AFP Thirteen major street protests have blockaded Islamabad with containers since 2014. Roughly one every eleven months. 2014: The PTI-PAT’s ‘Tsunami March’. 2016: The PTI’s threatened ‘Islamabad Lockdown’. 2017: The TLP’s first major Faizabad sit-in. 2018: another TLP-led march.
Four marches
A stock broker looks on during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on July 31, 2023. — AFP In 2014, came the ‘Tsunami March’. Then came the ‘Haqeeqi Azadi’ march in 2022. Followed by the ‘Final Call’ march in 2024. This cycle: the September/October 2026 march. In 2014, Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) market capitalisation fell from Rs7.2 trillion to Rs6.7 trillion within a few days of the dharna beginning -- roughly Rs500 billion erased.
COMMENT: What is Islamabad preparing for?
Paramilitary soldiers stand guard outside the Supreme Court building in Islamabad. — AFP/File The Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) police has a sanctioned strength of 12,625 with 9,754 actually in service. Islamabad requested 16,000 Punjab police officers plus 2,000 from the Sindh Police. Separately, more than 22,000 security personnel — Rangers and FC — are planned for Islamabad and around 30,000 in Attock, the principal KP-Punjab chokepoint.
Rs120 billion — who pays?
An Islamabad road being barricaded ahead of the PTI's long march. —TheNews/File Rs120 billion a day. That’s the number given by the Minister of Finance. Who will bear this loss? Who is calling the shots within the PTI? My guess is that the party’s chairperson, secretary-general or the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa must have -- jointly or severally -- decided to protest. Of the Rs120 billion loss, how much will these leaders lose?
Cost of protest — Rs120 billion/day?
Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb addressing media persons at PTV Headquarters.— APP/File Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has warned that protests, sit-ins and long marches could cost Pakistan’s economy about Rs120 billion a day. His arithmetic is straightforward: Rs86 billion in services, Rs25 billion in industry and Rs9 billion in agriculture. To be sure, this is only the flow loss. Output not produced. Exports not shipped. Shops closed. Trucks stranded.
Reform versus succession?
A National Assembly session underway on April 10, 2023. — Facebook/NationalAssemblyOfPakistan Player number 1: the Reform (R) Bloc. Player number 2: the M Group (Punjab). Player number 3: the B Group (Sindh). In effect, the emerging contest could become R Bloc versus succession politics in Punjab and Sindh. There is, as yet, no publicly articulated two-step plan from R Bloc.
Mohsin Naqvi’s ‘system’?
Chairman Pakistan Cricket Board Mohsin Naqvi speak to media persons on April 28, 2025. — Facebook@Ministry of Interior GoP Patronage politics -- also known as the ‘system’ -- costs Pakistan around Rs10 trillion a year. Yes, that is a conservative estimate, in direct fiscal terms. On top of that Rs10 trillion, an unmeasured multiple of that in foregone growth and investment. Ever wondered what Mohsin Naqvi meant when he said the ‘system has collapsed’?
Comment: Reform veto
Members of Pakistan’s lower house of parliament attend the National Assembly meeting in Islamabad on March 1, 2024. — X/@NAofPakistan The National Assembly has 336 MNAs. The four provincial assemblies have 749 MPAs. The Senate of Pakistan has 96 senators. That is a total of 1,181 legislators — but on structural constitutional reform, the two main leaders of PML-N and PPP exercise an effective veto over the entire system. Begin with Article 239.
Anti-reform?
The Parliament House in Islamabad. — Twitter/NAofPakistan On structural reform, Pakistan’s constitution is practically anti-reform. Every reform creates gainers and losers. Creating new provinces or administrative units would be no different: some would gain power, representation, and better access to government; others would lose territory, authority, budgets and patronage.
What does Google see?
People walk next to a Google logo during a trade fair in Hannover Messe, in Hanover, Germany, April 22, 2024. — Reuters Google has opened its first office in Pakistan. What does Google see in Pakistan that we do not? We Pakistanis look at Pakistan and see debt. Political conflict. Power shortages. Weak institutions. Unemployment. An IMF programme. Google looks at exactly the same country -- and sees something else. Google looks at Pakistani talent and finds it underpriced.
Islamabad — the beautiful
A general view of Islamabad city can be seen in this picture released on January 5, 2023. — Facebook/Capital Development Authority, Islamabad Bad idea: making Islamabad a full province. Good idea: giving Islamabad province-like autonomy. Islamabad does not need provincial status. It needs provincial powers with municipal accountability. Please do not make Islamabad another province. Make Islamabad Pakistan’s rst genuinely autonomous metropolitan government. There are proven models to follow.
Comment: Identity vs. governance
PPP lawmakers hold banners bearing the slogan “Sindh is my mother” during a Sindh Assembly session in Karachi on September 3, 2026. — CM House Identity is one thing. Governance is another. Take schools. Whether we are Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashtun or Baloch, we want good schools for our next generation. If a city government can run schools in my area better than the provincial government, that would not change my mother tongue – only the government responsible for running the schools changes. Take Sindh.
Sindh will remain Sindh
Government employees walk at the entrance gate of the Provincial Assembly of Sindh building in Karachi, March 16, 2026. — Reuters Maybe I am wrong but this is how I see it: Sindh will remain Sindh. Punjab will remain Punjab. Balochistan will remain Balochistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will remain Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Geography does not change. Culture does not change. Language does not change. History does not change.
Sindh will remain Sindh
This representational image shows workers busy with construction work at a construction site. — APP/File Maybe I am wrong but this is how I see it: Sindh will remain Sindh. Punjab will remain Punjab. Balochistan will remain Balochistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will remain Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Geography does not change. Culture does not change. Language does not change. History does not change. Maybe I am wrong, but I was always taught that administrative reform is not about identity; it never was.
Pakistan’s $3 billion signal
A foreign currency dealer counts US dollar notes at a currency market in Karachi on July 19, 2022. — AFP Pakistan has raised $3 billion from international markets: $1.75 billion for five-and-a-half years at 7.5 percent, and $1.25 billion for 10 years at 7.9 percent. This is Pakistan’s largest-ever international capital-market transaction. What does that really mean? The biggest story is not the $3 billion. The biggest story is 10 years.
COMMENT: The $200 billion Karachi
People are busy in buying food items at Burns road in Karachi on March 10, 2025. — PPI Karachi already produces around $100 billion worth of goods and services every year. Karachi has capital. Karachi has labour. Karachi has location. Karachi has ports. Karachi has industry. Karachi has entrepreneurial energy. Question: Why is Karachi not a $200 billion economy? Answer: Karachi does not have metropolitan economic governance.The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration Act was passed in 1985.
Comment: The Rs57m regulator
Minister of State for Crypto & Blockchain Bilal Bin Saqib. — Supplied Pakistan has a new regulator. Budget: Rs800 million. Spent: Rs57.1 million. Returned: Rs742.9 million. That got my attention. The Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA), under Bilal Bin Saqib, began without a permanent specialist workforce. Its HR regulations had not been notified. That meant no full-scale recruitment.
Pakistan's new question
Pakistani flags flutter near the Parliament House in Islamabad, April 11, 2026. — Reuters For the first time in seventy-eight years, the question being asked is: how should Pakistan be governed? For the past seventy-eight years, the question has been: who should govern Pakistan? For the past seventy-eight years, the question has been: who will drive the Pakistani car? Ayub asked it. Yahya asked it. Zia asked it. Musharraf asked it. Every answer changed the driver of the Pakistani car.
Pakistan’s new question
The building of the Parliament of Pakistan in Islamabad. — The News/File For the first time in seventy-eight years, the question being asked is: how should Pakistan be governed? For the past seventy-eight years, the question has been: who should govern Pakistan? For the past seventy-eight years, the question has been: who will drive the Pakistani car? Ayub asked it. Yahya asked it. Zia asked it. Musharraf asked it. Every answer changed the driver of the Pakistani car. We tried a technocrat.
Two governments are enough
Family members and police officers stand outside a mortuary following a deadly fire at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (Pims) hospital in Islamabad, August 26, 2026. — Reuters Fourteen newborns died in a public hospital in Islamabad. A nursery caught fire. Parents screamed. Mothers ran. Officials arrived. Statements were issued. Committees were formed. Responsibility was promised. We have seen this before. A tragedy happens. The state mourns. The prime minister takes notice.
Comment: From Caa1 to B3
A sign for Moody's rating agency is displayed at the company headquarters in New York, US, on September 18, 2012. —AFP/File Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s sovereign rating from Caa1 to B3. That is one notch. But the signal is larger than one notch. Here is why? Because credit ratings are about risk. And Moody’s is effectively saying that Pakistan today looks less risky than it did a year ago.What changed? Three things. First, macroeconomic stability has improved.
A reformist army?
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks during delegation-level talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Islamabad on June 23, 2026. Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir is also present. — Screengrab via X/@GovtofPakistan For decades, the establishment’s political objective was largely: Who governs Pakistan? The emerging question may increasingly be: How should Pakistan be governed? Red alert: Those are fundamentally different questions.
Rs103bn overcharged?
An employee prepares to fill petrol in a vehicle at a fuel station in Karachi on August 1, 2023. — AFP On August 19, the government announced a sharp reduction of Rs32.63 per litre in the price of high-speed diesel (HSD). Over the past five months, Pakistan consumed roughly 3.23 billion litres of high-speed diesel (HSD).
Comment: Google bets on Pakistan
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (third from right) inaugurates Google’s office in Islamabad on August 18, 2026. — X/ @PakPMO Google has opened an office in Pakistan. Does that sound like a corporate announcement? It is much more than that. Look at the numbers: Rs3.9 trillion. That’s what Google says it has already pumped into Pakistani businesses and households over ten years — without a local office. Now imagine what happens with one. Another number: 960,000 jobs.
Governance rethink
National Assembly during a session in Islamabad. — APP/File One National Assembly. One federal government. Forty constitutionally protected district/city governments. Abdul Rahman Kakar lives in Killa Abdullah, Balochistan’s poorest district, where roughly 97 per cent of the population is multidimensionally poor. An MNA claims to represent him. An MPA claims to represent him. Together, they help elect a senator who also claims to speak for him. A local councillor represents him too.
Forget provinces
A view of the Frere Hall building, used as a town hall during the days of the British Raj, now hosts an art gallery and a library.—Reuters Forget provinces. Pakistani cities generate up to 78 per cent of GDP. The World Bank describes cities as ‘major engines of economic activity’ globally, accounting for roughly 80 per cent of global GDP. The growth unit is not Punjab. It is Lahore. The growth unit is not Sindh. It is Karachi. The growth unit is not Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). It is Peshawar.
How about zero provinces?
A labourer bends over as he carries packs of textile fabric on his back to deliver to a nearby shop in a market in Karachi, Pakistan, June 24, 2022.—Reuters Pakistan’s provinces have become too big to deliver and too powerful to devolve. The 18th Amendment moved authority from Islamabad to Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta. The 18th Amendment did not move authority to the citizen. Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta became mini-Islamabads.
New provinces?
A young boy, who works as a trash picker, looks on at garbage dumped in an area. — Geo News/File Clinical observation: the system has failed to deliver for the common Pakistani. Diagnosis: the system has collapsed. Prescription: new provinces?
Comment: The joint defence agreement
(From left) Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gather to sign a joint defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. — Reuters Three leaders sat down in Makkah on August 7 and signed something that will outlast the photo-op. MBS (Muhammad Bin Salman). Erdogan. Shehbaz Sharif. Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Pakistan. The core clause: an attack on any one of the three is now treated as an attack on all three.
Comment: Mohsin Naqvi’s call
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi addressing a press conference on October 9, 2024 in Islamabad. — APP Over four budgets, the federal and provincial governments spent around Rs14 trillion for development. That’s the equivalent of $50 billion. That is what is at stake.
Comment: A system not designed to deliver
(From left to right) PML-N President Nawaz Sharif, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman and President Asif Ali Zardari seen in this image released on October 7, 2024. — Facebook@MuhammadNawazSharifMNS Pakistan’s governing order rests on seven deeply embedded pillars: patronage-driven political parties, a politicised bureaucracy, enfeebled local governments, protected elites, loss-making state-owned enterprises, fragmented accountability and electoral horizons too short for serious reform.
Washington’s return
An airview of Pentagon. —AFP/File Attention: Washington has rediscovered Islamabad’s strategic utility. The White House needs Pakistan’s diplomatic reach. The Pentagon sees GHQ as central to regional stability. Centcom needs Pakistan’s geography, military coordination and operational access across a volatile region. The US Department of Treasury is looking into a $10 billion Exchange Stabilisation Fund-linked facility. Members of the US Congress are arriving at GHQ. These are not isolated events.
Warning or trial balloon?
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is addressing an economic summit in Islamabad on July 30, 2026. — Screengrab via Geo News Mohsin Naqvi’s diagnosis: The system has “collapsed”. Note the tense. Not weakening. Not failing. Collapsed. That means the system cannot be repaired through elections, cabinet changes or longer working hours. That is not a call for better implementation. It is the opening argument for a new system.
Rs43 trillion spent –anything fixed?
A person can be seen arranging stacks of PKR notes. — AFP/File Four years ago, the federal government’s debt servicing stood at Rs2.9 trillion. It has since crossed Rs8 trillion. That’s an increase of about Rs5.1 trillion -- a rise of roughly 175-180 per cent in four years. Strip it down further: that’s a compound annual growth rate of about 28-29 per cent. Total interest paid in four years: Rs26 trillion. Cold truth: Debt servicing is not rising gradually -- it is compounding.
Pakistan takes centre stage
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen in this illustration taken June 22, 2025. — Reuters The six Gulf monarchies — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar — collectively spend well over $130 billion a year on defence. This is before the post-Iran-war reassessment. For decades, Gulf security rested on one central assumption: the US would deter the threat. Defend the airspace.
Army paradox
Security personnel patrol with vehicles on a street in Quetta, Pakistan, on March 25, 2020. — AFP We expect our army to defend the borders. Fight terrorism. Secure foreign investment. Protect Chinese engineers. Stabilise Azad Kashmir. Step into political crises. Support a weak civilian administration. Assist in disasters. Help with population control. Look closer: One institution. An expanding mandate. Lo and behold, then comes the contradiction.
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