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Articles by Frank Hoffman
Teoría de la difusión en expansión: Potencias medias como motores inteligentes en la nueva RMA
Cómo las Potencias Medias podrían emplear diferentes estrategias para convertirse en "motores inteligentes" con la adopción de nuevas tecnologías disruptivas en una nueva revolución en los asuntos militares (RMA). Por el Dr. Frank Hoffman El dron interestatal TDR de la Marina de EE.UU. en la Segunda Guerra Mundial (el primer FPV) y un FPV ucraniano moderno con operador. Imágenes: Marina de EE. UU. y Ministerio de Defensa de Ucrania.
When the world's at stake, go beyond the headlines.
Jack Watling, Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World (Macmillan, 2026) The war against Iran exposed a multitude of forced errors and own goals in the conduct of statecraft. The purpose of sound statecraft is the integrated application of a state’s tools and its repertoire of governmental instruments of power to gain its desired outcomes in international relations.
Just How Much is Too Much? The Defense Spending Dilemma
The president asked Congress to approve a Pentagon funding request of $1.5 trillion for next year’s defense budget. This represents a record-shattering budget increase of roughly 50 percent over last year’s baseline budget. The Pentagon’s proposed request is larger than the Reagan-era increase over his entire first term, and four times larger than the increase (12 percent) that Donald Trump successively fought for in 2018.
CONN J., Catholic Universities in the United States and Ecclesiastical Authority, Editrice Pontificia Università Gregoriana, Roma, 1991, p. 346
Ayuda Buscar en la ayuda Buscar en la ayuda CONN J., Catholic Universities in the United States and Ecclesiastical Authority, Editrice Pontificia Università Gregoriana, Roma, 1991, p. 346 Autores: Frank J. Hoffman Localización: Ius ecclesiae, ISSN 1120-6462, Vol. 4, Nº 1, 1992, págs.
Key Takeaways from the New National Defense Strategy
On Friday, Jan. 23, the U.S. Department of Defense released its new National Defense Strategy, which describes how the department will implement its responsibilities under the National Security Strategy.
Assessing "Cognitive Warfare" - HSToday
Despite its introduction over a decade ago by the People’s Liberation Army, there is no common understanding of Cognitive Warfare. Nor is there an agreement on the existence of a human or cognitive domain. These concepts compete in a crowded and confusing field centered around information technology and the related information dimension of statecraft.
Is Strategy Possible Now? Ever?
Based around Chicago? On the evening of Nov. 21, War on the Rocks is joining forces with BVVC and Union Technologies at a downtown Chicago location for an exclusive reception on the future of warfighting and defense technology. Join us for an evening of great conversation and lively company, featuring a live taping of the War on the Rocks podcast with Ryan Evans and a senior leader. Attendance is free, but space is limited. If you’d like to join, apply to attend here.
Assessing "Cognitive Warfare"
Despite its introduction over a decade ago by the People’s Liberation Army, there is no common understanding of Cognitive Warfare. Nor is there an agreement on the existence of a human or cognitive domain. These concepts compete in a crowded and confusing field centered around information technology and the related information dimension of statecraft.
PROPHECY FULFILLED SHOULD STRENGTHEN OUR FAITH IN PROPHECY FORETOLD
Isaiah 40:3 44:28 45:1-7 Matthew 3:3 Mark 1:3 Luke 3:4 John 1:23 Romans 13:1 15:4 2 Peter 1:1-11, 19 Over the past nine years we have spent a relatively small amount of time discussing prophecy. Weíve spent most of our time finding ways to grow in the light of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, and in shining that light forth to others. Weíve talked about living in love.
Human, Machine, War: How the Mind-Tech Nexus Will Win Future Wars
The U.S. military is often criticized for emphasizing the application of exquisite and ever more expensive technology over other factors in its conception of future warfare.
Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation
Risk is an enduring reality in strategic decisionmaking. The rigorous assessment of risk is—or should be—a critical step in strategy development. There is always risk in any strategy thanks to the unrelenting reality of uncertainty in human affairs. Yet it is often a weak link in U.S. strategy formulation and decisionmaking.
Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation
Abstract This article explores the critical but often overlooked role of risk analysis in U.S. national security decision-making, emphasizing its importance in strategy formulation and execution. Risk, defined as the potential for adverse outcomes tied to uncertainties, is frequently misunderstood or ignored, leading to flawed assumptions, bias-driven decisions, and costly strategic failures.
Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation
Abstract This article explores the critical but often overlooked role of risk analysis in U.S. national security decision-making, emphasizing its importance in strategy formulation and execution. Risk, defined as the potential for adverse outcomes tied to uncertainties, is frequently misunderstood or ignored, leading to flawed assumptions, bias-driven decisions, and costly strategic failures.
Exploring Ukraine’s Future: Alternative Scenarios
Wise leaders recognize that history does not follow a fixed linear path, and that the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of examining alternative futures. The use (and the abuse) of scenarios is well established in the corporate world. Scenarios are used to explore the range of possible futures in the defense-planning business, as they help address the plausible multiple futures that policymakers may have to face.
The Future of Hybrid Warfare
This series—featuring scholars from the Futures Lab, the International Security Program, and across CSIS—explores emerging challenges and opportunities that NATO is likely to confront after its 75th anniversary. In the future, NATO should embrace the concept of hybrid warfare and incorporate it into how it deters and defends. Starting with resiliency as the first step, NATO can use its inherent strengths to put adversaries at a disadvantage and strengthen its strategic approach to hybrid warfare.
A Break in the Clouds: Learning Lessons From the Sea
“… there is a break in the clouds: a small-scale conflict occurs somewhere and gives you a “fix” by showing whether certain weapons and techniques are effective or not; but it is always a doubtful fix.”1 The failure to learn from contemporary warfare “is in many ways the most puzzling of all military misfortunes.”2 But one historian disagrees, finding that learning from the experience of others is actually harder, since the “investigatory difficulty of foreign wars complicates accurately...
ACCOUNTABILITY AND THE LACK OF IT
Genesis 4:1-26 5:4 Leviticus 17:11 We probably all have heard the story of Cain and Abel, and how the first murder occurred, but we don't very often look at the cause and the result of this action upon the society that came later. As we look at this early developing society, and what the people considered to be acceptable, we should easily see what is happening in our society today; for human nature is really still the same. We have lost much of our accountability.
Imagining the Future of Landpower
Jack Watling, (Bloomsbury, for the Royal United Services Institute, 2023) There is an ongoing debate in the US military establishment about the changing character of war. Officially, we acknowledge the need for significant change over continuity, yet very few agree on the details. Ongoing conflicts raise questions. In particular, just how will the rapid diffusion of low-cost unmanned systems and an array of accurate, lethal top-attack munitions impact warfare and US defense priorities?
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, September 15, 2023
ISW’s China–Taiwan Weekly Update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments. Data Cutoff: September 12 at 5pm ET Key Takeaways Kuomintang (KMT) leaders threatened party disciplinary action against party members supporting independent presidential candidate and former KMT member Terry Gou, which is unlikely to bolster KMT unity before the presidential election.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 18, 2023
The ISW China–Taiwan Weekly Update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments. Data Cutoff: August 15 at 5pm Key Takeaways Republic of China (ROC) Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te gave an interview with Bloomberg in Taiwan on July 27, which Bloomberg released on August 14.
Tanking Up: Understanding the Materiel—and Moral—Implications of the New Armor Heading to Ukraine - Modern War Institute Original
There is much to celebrate in the collective decision by Ukraine’s Western supporters to again upgrade security assistance to Kyiv with modern armor systems including the well-regarded German Leopard 2. There is little doubt the new weapons systems will eventually make a substantial impact on the battlefield. Kyiv’s tank troops are elated with the decision, their tanks are old, and parts and ammunition are becoming scarce.
American Defense Priorities After Ukraine - War on the Rocks
Russia’s war against Ukraine has peeled back the veneer and revealed the rot within Moscow’s military machine. Kyiv’s impressive battlefield successes imposed major losses on Russia in terms of territory, manpower, and materiel. The tide has turned in a brutal war of attrition. Russia’s gains are being reversed ever so slowly and at significant cost to all sides. But Ukraine has not won yet, and it still has far to go in terms of regaining control of its territory as winter approaches.
Remembering Dr. David E. Johnson, USA (Ret.), a man who truly made a difference
It is with very deep sadness that I report the passing of Dr. Dave Johnson.
11/5/22 National Security News and Commentary
Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners Quotes of the Day: 1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 4 (Putin's War) 2. Ukraine: CDS Daily brief (04.11.22) CDS comments on key events 3. Iran acknowledges sending drones to Russia for first time 4. Putin endorses evacuation of parts of Ukraine's Kherson region 5. The Untold Story of ‘Russiagate’ and the Road to War in Ukraine 6. Perspectives for Influence Operations Investigators 7.
10/3/22 National Security News and Commentary
Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners Quotes of the Day: 1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 2 (Putin's War) 2. Ukraine: CDS Daily brief (02.10.22) CDS comments on key events 3. Japan as the third global military power 4. U.S. defense secretary sees no imminent invasion of Taiwan by China 5. Biden’s Chance to Restore American Dignity in Iran 6. FDD | U.S., Israeli Navies Conduct Exercise as Iran Steps up Maritime Aggression 7.
Dr. Frank Hoffman on “Defining and Securing Success in Ukraine”
What is the way forward in the Ukraine crisis? In today’s post Dr. Frank Hoffman joins us again to discuss that very question in his thoughtful but extremely candid way.
America Needs a Comprehensive Compellence Strategy Against Russia
Home / Articles / America Needs a Comprehensive Compellence Strategy Against Russia The Biden administration has formulated an unprecedented response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The coordination of transatlantic diplomacy, including the condemnation of Russia at the United Nations and the implementation of a massive sanctions package, is truly impressive.
What Comes Next in Ukraine: Three Scenarios
With their defeat in the Battle of Kyiv, Russian forces have started to concentrate in the east and south of Ukraine to build upon their greater advances there. Too many commentators have overlooked the battles in the south where Moscow’s troops were more successful in taking territory. The defense of Kyiv got all the media attention, as did Bucha, despite the wanton destruction of Mariupol.
Defeat Mechanisms in Modern Warfare
Abstract This article explores the current debate about service and Joint operating concepts, starting with the Army’s multi-domain operations concept. It argues for adaptations to an old operational design technique—defeat mechanisms; updates to Joint and service planning doctrine; and discipline regarding emerging concepts. Rather than debate over attrition versus maneuver, combinations of a suite of defeat mechanisms should be applied to gain victory in the future.
Extending that ‘Loving Feeling’ to Undersea Warfare
The Hollywood blockbuster “Top Gun” starring Tom Cruise was a potent recruiting advertisement for aviators. One of its most memorable scenes was of a chorus of pilots at the bar of an Officer’s Club singing “You’ve Lost that Loving Feeling” to a bemused Kelly McGillis. Back during the Vietnam War, the U.S. Navy activated a training school, the Fighter Weapons School, to regain the lost art of air-to-air combat and to ensure that its pilots remained among the elites of their profession.
Extending that 'Loving Feeling' to Undersea Warfare
The Hollywood blockbuster “Top Gun” starring Tom Cruise was a potent recruiting advertisement for aviators. One of its most memorable scenes was of a chorus of pilots at the bar of an Officer’s Club singing “You’ve Lost that Loving Feeling” to a bemused Kelly McGillis. Back during the Vietnam War, the U.S. Navy activated a training school, the Fighter Weapons School, to regain the lost art of air-to-air combat and to ensure that its pilots remained among the elites of their profession.
The Return of Great-Power Proxy Wars
If the United States fights with China or Russia, what type of war will it be? Will it look like the high-tech conflict envisaged in The Kill Chain or will it be closer to the plot of Ghost Fleet? Much of the U.S. strategic debate has been dominated by the perceived need to deter and prepare for large-scale, conventional conflicts — what some in these pages have called a Napoleonic conception of war.
The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World
“Growltiger’s Last Stand” is one of T.S. Eliot’s best poems, ripe with allusions. It is also a possible allegory for today’s strategists.[1] Growltiger was a large and fearsome cat who became complacent and shabby, ultimately losing his edge and his friends. Eventually, the once feared predator was overwhelmed on his barge by a swarm of foreign rivals while his allies were gone. Growltiger’s opponents ganged up on him and dispatched him.
#Reviewing Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World
“Growltiger’s Last Stand” is one of T.S. Eliot’s best poems, ripe with allusions. It is also a possible allegory for today’s strategists.[1] Growltiger was a large and fearsome cat who became complacent and shabby, ultimately losing his edge and his friends. Eventually, the once feared predator was overwhelmed on his barge by a swarm of foreign rivals while his allies were gone. Growltiger’s opponents ganged up on him and dispatched him.
U.S. Defense Strategy After the Pandemic
After a year of loss and lockdowns, America’s vaccination efforts are slowly allowing the country to reopen. At long last, things are very slowly starting to feel normal. Among other things, this moment provides analysts the opportunity to consider how the pandemic has affected domestic support for America’s defense strategy, and whether the country will be able to afford it over the long term.
U.S. Defense Strategy After the Pandemic
After a year of loss and lockdowns, America’s vaccination efforts are slowly allowing the country to reopen. At long last, things are very slowly starting to feel normal. Among other things, this moment provides analysts the opportunity to consider how the pandemic has affected domestic support for America’s defense strategy, and whether the country will be able to afford it over the long term.
Mars Adapting
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War on the Rocks
November 10, 2020 The successful military is the one that adapts and innovates. Dave Barno, Nora Benhahel, and Frank Hoffman join Ryan to talk about how the U.S. military changes, or fails to do so. They have two new books on the subject between them: Adaptation under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime, by Dave and Nora is out now. And Mars Adapting: Military Change During War, by Frank, will be out soon. (This was recorded before the election results were projected)
National Defense University Press > Publications > Books > Strategic Assessments 2020
Part II: Warfighting, Innovation, and Technology in a New Era of Great Power Competition
Distilling the Essence of Strategy
Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from a roundtable “Remembering Colin Gray” from our sister publication, the Texas National Security Review. Be sure to check out the full roundtable. I am certain of one thing: Colin Gray would be exasperated with claims that “Grand strategy is dead.” What he would have called a “banality” is commonplace these days. Some question the need for grand strategy; others contend the United States has lost the art of developing one.
Distilling the Essence of Strategy
Editor’s Note: This is an excerpt from a roundtable “Remembering Colin Gray” from our sister publication, the Texas National Security Review. Be sure to check out the full roundtable. I am certain of one thing: Colin Gray would be exasperated with claims that “Grand strategy is dead.” What he would have called a “banality” is commonplace these days. Some question the need for grand strategy; others contend the United States has lost the art of developing one.
A New American Military Ethic
At a major conference at the Atlantic Council recently, General Martin E. Dempsey, U.S. Army, the serving Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was questioned about the idea of a general officer being elected President. The Chairman’s response went beyond the specific question, raising an important but often misunderstood point about the military profession: You know what I’ve said about generals and flag officers? If you want to get out of the military and run for office, I’m all for it.
Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps
Download Still First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marine Corps The headline in the New York Times on June 1, 1918, read “Marines – First to Fight.” The day before, a brigade of Marines attached to the U.S. Army’s 2nd Division had raced to the Western Front to halt a breakthrough threatening Paris. They stopped the Germans cold, and five days later, the brigade successfully counterattacked at Belleau Wood becoming the first publicly identified American unit to enter combat in World War I.
The Missing Element in Crafting National Strategy: A Theory of Success
By Frank G. Hoffman Joint Force Quarterly 97 March 31, 2020 — Download PDF Dr. Frank G. Hoffman is a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for Strategic Studies, Institute for National Strategic Studies, at the National Defense University. By the end of the 19th century, the study of strategy had become routine for practitioners, but of little interest for theorists. By the end of the 20th century, it had become a matter of endless fascination for theorists, but a puzzle for practitioners.
Strategy as Appetite Suppressant
It is tempting to compare successful national strategies to unicorns: They both seem mythical. But while good strategies might be rare, they are very real. And despite the impressions left by recent history, they are possible. There are multiple meanings and purposes for grand strategy; as grand plans, as a set of macro principles, or as patterns of state behavior, as Nina Silove detailed. However, there is a fourth meaning and this purpose now rises to the forefront in salience.
Strategy as Appetite Suppressant
It is tempting to compare successful national strategies to unicorns: They both seem mythical. But while good strategies might be rare, they are very real. And despite the impressions left by recent history, they are possible. There are multiple meanings and purposes for grand strategy; as grand plans, as a set of macro principles, or as patterns of state behavior, as Nina Silove detailed. However, there is a fourth meaning and this purpose now rises to the forefront in salience.
“Fifty Shades of Gray”: A Tribute to Colin S. Gray (1943–2020) - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Colin S. Gray, a prolific Anglo-American scholar and strategist, died last week after a decades-long contest with cancer. A renowned scholar of geopolitics and nuclear strategy, Professor Gray worked in the United States and the United Kingdom and retired from academia after years at the University of Reading. He authored 30 books and mentored many junior scholars, including myself. Some of his books were complex if not dense, but his insights were invariably profound.
Institutional Operating Codes: The Culture of Military Organizations
Notes: [1] Theo Farrell, “Figuring Out Fighting Organizations: The New Organizational Analysis in Strategic Studies,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 19, no. 1, (Spring 1996), 122135; Theory Farrell, “Culture and Military Power,” Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, no. 3 (Fall 1998), 407-416; Theo Farrell and Terry Terriff, The Sources of Military Change: Culture Politics, Technology (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002).
Institutional Operating Codes: #Reviewing The Culture of Military Organizations
There are many elements that make up a fighting force’s effectiveness in battle; leadership, doctrine, and equipment are most often cited as key determinants. But, as this extensive study shows, organizational culture is also an important factor. Overall, The Culture of Military Organizationsconvincingly shows thatinternal culture has an enormous influence on fighting organizations. This influence includes their approach to warfare and their performance in battle.
Dissecting Strategic Decision Making
Yogi Berra, not widely renowned as an American strategist, purportedly once quipped, “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.”[1] This well-worn quote captures the thrust of Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America’s Great Foreign Policy Tragedy. In theory, policy, and strategy are the product of extensive analysis, detailed cost-benefit calculations, and rational criteria for decision-making.
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