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Articles by Frank Pabian
Update on Natanz: Construction Progresses Towards Large-scale Tunnel Complex
Since our October 30, 2020, report on the construction of a new centrifuge assembly facility in the mountains near the Natanz enrichment plant,1 construction has progressed and tunnel entrance locations can now be identified with certainty. Most importantly, newly available high resolution satellite imagery confirms that construction is progressing rapidly at the largest mountain in the area, the most likely future location for the new underground assembly facility.
New Information about the Parchin Site:
A great deal of on-the-ground information about Iran’s Parchin site has publicly emerged. This site was involved prior to 2004 in high explosive testing related to the development of nuclear weapons. The new information, mainly in the form of Iranian documents and photos, is from an archive seized by Israel in Tehran, a fact that was publicly revealed on April 30, 2018 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Potential Nuclear Weapons-Related Military Area in Baluchistan, Pakistan
Pakistan has constructed a hardened, secure, underground complex in Baluchistan Province that could serve as a ballistic missile and nuclear warhead storage site (see figures 1 and 2).
Summary of Report: A Key Missing Piece of the Amad Puzzle: The Shahid Boroujerdi Project
• The Nuclear Archives reveals a major, former nuclear weapons site under Project 110 of the Amad Plan that was not previously identified.
Revealed: Emptying of the Iranian “Atomic Warehouse” at Turquz Abad
• Satellite imagery and statements presented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been corroborated using commercially available imagery • After the Iranian Nuclear Archives were revealed, Iran started to empty the separate Atomic Warehouse site • The warehouse site does not appear to be a carpet cleaning factory as claimed by Iran • The IAEA should ask to visit the site, inspect the removed containers and contents, and take samples from both containers and the site.
Thermal Power Plant at the Khushab Plutonium Complex is Nearly Complete
In a previous Khushab Update,1 the Institute identified major new construction in the southwest corner of Pakistan’s Khushab Plutonium Production Complex (also known as “KCP”). This construction was most likely being done for a new coal-fired thermal power plant to augment the electric power requirements of the complex. Recently acquired commercial satellite imagery from March 2018 now confirms that assessment, as does corroborative information gleaned from open source reporting.
It Fits! Qom Site Layout
Overlaying a schematic from the AMAD archive on the Qom, now called the Fordow, deeply buried enrichment plant. This plant was built in secret by Iran in the mid-2000s and publicly exposed by Britain, France, and the United States in 2009. Observations The schematic matches the entrances and expected layout of the deeply buried Qom uranium enrichment plant. Iran calls this site the Fordow facility, and it is constrained from operating centrifuges there by the Iran nuclear deal.
The Alleged Nuclear Weapons Development Site near Abadeh, Iran
On June 5, 2020, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) provided some limited detail on three locations for which it was seeking, unsuccessfully, additional information and clarification from Iran regarding past activities having potential IAEA safeguards relevance, in particular involving the use and storage of undeclared nuclear material.
Anatomy of Iran’s Deception and How Iran Benefited -
For a summary of this report, click here. Iran’s Nuclear Archive contains considerable new information about its past nuclear weapons program including documentary evidence showing Iran’s deceptions in its declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about its past military nuclear activities.
Update on Assessing the Detonation at the Natanz Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center:
We would like to first explain why we are issuing another report on the Natanz explosion. As we continue to obtain and receive newer and more detailed information, we believe that we are gaining a clearer understanding of this event, leading us to update our analyses.
New Thermal Power Estimates of the Khushab Nuclear Reactors
Little official information exists about the four Khushab nuclear reactors, which make plutonium for Pakistani nuclear weapons. A key parameter is the power of the reactor, which is directly related to the amount of plutonium the reactors can make. As a result, there have been many estimates of the reactors’ power. The construction of a Thermal Power Plant (TPP) at the nuclear site in Khushab opens a new pathway to estimate the publicly unknown power of the adjacent four nuclear reactors.
Serial Bombings Observed at Masyaf, Syria
Recent media reporting describes an alleged Israeli missile attack against what has been described as part of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC or CERS) near Masyaf, Syria, that occurred after midnight on Christmas Eve, December 24, 2020.1 Acquisition and analysis of satellite imagery by ImageSat International determined that the target of that precision bombardment was a number of buildings, including one revetted building that was likely to have been engaged in the...
The Amad Plan Pilot Uranium Conversion Site, Which Iran Denies Ever Existed
Modified November 10, 2020 Based on information in the Nuclear Archive, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited an Iranian site in the late summer, concerned that the site had possessed undeclared nuclear material, in particular uranium, a violation of Iran’s safeguards agreement. The site was involved in pilot-scale uranium conversion under the Amad Plan in the early 2000s and was dismantled in 2004.
Presence of Undeclared Natural Uranium at the Turquz-Abad Nuclear Weaponization Storage Location
Overview As confirmed during a special meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors on November 7, 2019, the IAEA reported the finding of multiple particles of natural uranium of “anthropogenic origin” at an unnamed site.3 Iranian government officials identify this site as the warehouse complex in Tehran’s Turquz-Abad district, also called by others the “Atomic Warehouse,” although these officials deny that the site was owned by the Atomic Energy Organization of...
Project Midan: New Information from the Archive
Iran’s Project Midan, part of Project 110 of the Amad Plan, was responsible for building an underground nuclear weapon test site in the early 2000s. Based on documents in the Iran Nuclear Archive, Iran had picked five possible locations in remote areas of Iran, an effort described in an earlier Institute study (see Figure 1).
Summary of Report: The Fordow Enrichment Plant, aka Al Ghadir [1] -
The Iranian “Nuclear Archive,” seized in early 2018 by Israel, contained a surprise: a photo revealing support facilities for a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. The plant later became known as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), located near Qom (Figures 1 and 2). The image in Figure 1 refers to the Al Ghadir project, which is a code name for this enrichment project under the “Amad Plan,” Iran’s early 2000s program to make five missile-deliverable nuclear weapons.
Iran Defies the International Atomic Energy Agency: The IAEA’s Latest Iran Safeguards Report
This analysis summarizes and assesses information in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA’s) periodic safeguards report, NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the most recent of which was issued on June 5, 2020.
Revisiting Qusayr: Uncertainties Still Abound at Suspect Underground Site in Syria
In light of media reports claiming that targets near the Syrian town of Al Qusayr had been destroyed in an aerial bombing attack in May 2018, the Institute chose to revisit the status of a suspect underground site near Al Qusayr once commercial satellite imagery of the area became available.
Conversion of Fordow: Another Unfulfilled Hope of the Iran Nuclear Deal
Summary The Fordow uranium enrichment facility has never been repurposed, as promised in the JCPOA. Everything required to enrich uranium to weapons grade could be quickly reconstituted in the underground portion of the facility. Fordow is potentially part of Iran’s current threats to progressively go to higher enrichment levels and increase its stocks of enriched uranium, and if conducted there, Fordow’s underground tunnel complex is fortified to withstand aerial bombardment.
Mysterious Fire and Explosion in the New Natanz Advanced Centrifuge Assembly Facility
Following closely on the heels of two unexplained incidents in Iran involving explosions and fires that in one case reportedly killed 19 people,1 media reported early on July 2, 2020 that a fire and apparent explosion had occurred at the Natanz Enrichment Site, which houses large underground enrichment halls and several above-ground workshops, the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), and support buildings.2 The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) stated that “one of the sheds under...
Update on New Construction Activity at Natanz
This report is an update to an October 7, 2020 report1 on Iran’s construction of a new centrifuge assembly facility in the mountains near the Natanz enrichment plant.
Looking for Evidence of the Construction of Iran’s New Centrifuge Assembly Plant:
This summer, Iran decided to construct a new underground centrifuge assembly plant, following the destruction of the above ground one at the Natanz enrichment site on July 2, 2020. So far, Iran has undertaken little visible work in the mountains adjacent to the Natanz enrichment site with the exception of possible construction preparations. A nearby gunnery range appears to have been converted to a construction support and staging area in the first half of September.
Is the facility at Qusayr, Syria an underground nuclear facility?
Lede and Commentary The Institute decided to revisit a series of claims made in a 2015 Der Spiegel report regarding the Qusayr site in Syria, including that the site could be the location of an underground nuclear reactor or uranium enrichment facility, or could contain nuclear fuel from Syria’s destroyed Al Kibar nuclear reactor.1 Based on commercial satellite imagery, none of these claims could be confirmed, and the purpose of the site remains unknown.
Shahid Mahallati: “Temporary” Plant for Manufacturing Nuclear Weapon Cores
Summary Based on documents in the Iran Nuclear Archive, seized by Israel in early 2018, Iran’s Amad Plan created the Shahid Mahallati Uranium Metals Workshop near Tehran to research and develop uranium metallurgy related to building nuclear weapons. Figure 1 shows this site as it looked in 2002 and 2003, when an existing workshop was renovated and brought into operation.
Pakistan’s Growing Uranium Enrichment Program
Pakistan has invested heavily in recent years in renovating and expanding its nuclear infrastructure, including the parts related to making nuclear explosive materials. The Institute for Science and International Security monitors Pakistan’s nuclear activities and in this report examines Pakistan’s efforts to expand its capability to enrich uranium for nuclear power reactors and for use in nuclear weapons.
Summary of Report: Anatomy of Iran’s Nuclear Deception and How Iran Benefited
Iran’s Nuclear Archive contains considerable new information about its past nuclear weapons program including documentary evidence showing Iran’s deceptions in its declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about its past military nuclear activities.
Summary of Report: Project Midan: Building an Underground Nuclear Test Site in Iran [1]
An important discovery in the Nuclear Archive seized by Israel was substantial evidence that Iran was building an underground nuclear test site that was expected to be finished by 2004. Iran’s nuclear weapons program, code-named the “Amad Plan,” was developing and building five nuclear weapons, and this program wanted to be ready to test one, if a decision was made to do so.
Dismantlement of Spent Fuel Storage Building at Yongbyon’s 50 MWe Reactor
By: Frank Pabian, Olli Heinonen, Jack Liu and Samantha J. Pitz September 24, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that the spent fuel storage building at the abandoned, never-completed 50 MWe Reactor is being dismantled or repurposed. The building was designed to contain a spent fuel storage pond as well as three smaller ponds serving decontamination and other purposes.
North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Plant: What to Make of New Construction
By: Olli Heinonen, Frank Pabian, Jack Liu and Jenny Town September 21, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Recent commercial satellite imagery indicated new construction is underway at North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP) at the country’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center.
Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center: Construction Activity Near ELWR
By: Frank Pabian, Olli Heinonen, Jack Liu and Samantha J. Pitz September 17, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that construction has been ongoing at a site just south of the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) since April and has recently picked up pace. Although the exact purpose of the future building is still unclear, it may be intended to play a supportive role in future ELWR operations.
It’s the Launcher, Not the Missile: Initial Evaluation of North Korea’s Rail-Mobile Missile Launches
By: Vann H. Van Diepen September 17, 2021 Military Affairs, WMD (Source: KCTV via Martyn Williams) North Korea’s September 15 launches of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from a railcar are significant for its first-time use of a rail launcher, not because of the missiles that were tested.
North Korea’s Work At Uranium Plant Points To Missile Buildup
Sep 17 2021, 10:22 AMSep 17 2021, 6:09 PMSeptember 17 2021, 10:22 AMSeptember 17 2021, 6:09 PM (Bloomberg) -- North Korea is expanding a plant used to enrich uranium for nuclear bombs, two reports based on satellite imagery show, in another sign that Kim Jong Un is removing self-imposed constraints on his atomic weapons program put in place during talks with the U.S. (Bloomberg) -- North Korea is expanding a plant used to enrich uranium for nuclear bombs, two reports based on satellite...
Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center’s UEP May Not Be Operating
By: Frank Pabian, Olli Heinonen, Jack Liu and Jenny Town September 16, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates the cooling units on the annex rooftop next to the cascade halls at the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP) were removed between August 25 and September 1.
Initial Analysis of North Korea’s “New Type Long-Range Cruise Missile”
By: Vann H. Van Diepen September 15, 2021 Military Affairs, WMD (Source: Rodong Sinmun) On September 13, North Korea released a statement reporting successful flight tests on September 11 and 12 of “new type long-range cruise missiles.”[1] It also released photographs depicting a cruise missile resembling the US Tomahawk and other foreign long-range cruise missiles, both in flight and being launched from one of five launch tubes/canisters mounted on a wheeled mobile launcher.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: More Evidence the 5 MWe Reactor Appears to Have Restarted
By: Frank Pabian, Jenny Town and Jack Liu August 30, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center provides more evidence that operations at the 5 MWe Reactor have likely restarted. Consistent with a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a discharge of cooling water into a new outflow channel leading into the Kuryong River is visible in satellite imagery from August 25.
Development of the Yongbyon Uranium Enrichment Plant Between 2009 and 2021
By: Olli Heinonen July 16, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Understanding North Korea’s fissile material production capacity is an important factor in assessing the North’s ability to expand its nuclear weapons program. While the plutonium production reactors are easy to identify and monitor via commercial satellite imagery, the North’s uranium enrichment activities are much more difficult to discern, with both fewer unique attributes to the facilities and visible indicators of operations.
Komdok Mining Region: A Pending Promise
By: Peter Makowsky July 9, 2021 Satellite Imagery The back-to-back typhoons late last summer, and in particular, Typhoon Maysak, ravaged the mining area of Komdok, destroying many of the workers’ homes and washing out key road segments and bridges necessary for the transport of mining ores. This, in turn, disrupted the region’s mining operations as well.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Assessing Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory
By: Olli Heinonen, Frank Pabian and Jack Liu June 25, 2021 Satellite Imagery, WMD Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that the Thermal (Steam) Plant, which provides steam for the various processes of the Radiochemical Laboratory (RCL)–North Korea’s spent fuel reprocessing plant for plutonium extraction–appears to have been operating from March 2021 to the present.[1] This period of operation is longer than previous maintenance efforts and...
North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Three Years After Its Dismantlement
By: Jack Liu, Frank Pabian and Peter Makowsky June 9, 2021 Satellite Imagery Three years ago, on May 24, 2018, in the lead-up to the first US-DPRK summit, North Korea dismantled the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in a dramatic fashion, using explosives to demolish support buildings and test tunnel entrances.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: Satellite Update
By: Peter Makowsky, Frank Pabian, Jack Liu and Olli Heinonen May 28, 2021 Satellite Imagery New commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates: 1) continued activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory (RCL) and the Thermal (Steam) Plant which supports it, but no clear evidence that spent fuel rods have been transferred from storage near the 5 MWe Reactor to produce plutonium; 2) new activity at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) that...
Sinpho South Shipyard: Submersible Missile Test Barge Returns to Secure Basin
By: Peter Makowsky and Jack Liu April 14, 2021 Satellite Imagery Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpho South Shipyard from April 14, 2021 indicates that the submersible missile test stand barge, last observed at the submarine construction hall quay, has returned to the secure boat basin. Imagery from April 10 had shown evidence that, while the test barge was berthed at the construction hall quay, it likely underwent a modification.
Sinpho South Shipyard: Probable Modifications to the Submersible Missile Test Barge
By: Peter Makowsky, Jenny Town and Jack Liu April 10, 2021 Satellite Imagery Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpho South Shipyard from April 10 reveals that the missile canister for the submersible missile test barge has likely been removed, possibly for maintenance or for replacement with a new canister or launch frame to accommodate larger submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Reprocessing Status Remains Unclear
By: Frank Pabian, Olli Heinonen, Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky April 7, 2021 Satellite Imagery Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that heightened activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory (RCL) since late February is continuing. Currently, there is no definitive evidence that the coal-fired Thermal (Steam) Plant, which supplies steam to the RCL, is operating for the purpose of a new campaign to extract plutonium from spent fuel (reprocessing).
Sinpho South Shipyard: Repositioning of the Submersible Test Barge
By: Peter Makowsky and Jack Liu April 6, 2021 Satellite Imagery Since its arrival at Sinpho South Shipyard in 2014, the submersible missile test stand barge, associated with the at-sea testing of the Pukguksong-1/KN-11, has not been observed outside of the secure boat basin for an event other than at-sea testing.
Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected
By: Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky March 26, 2021 Satellite Imagery Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpho South Shipyard from March 24, 2021 indicates that the floating drydock, normally moored at a nearby pier, has recently been repositioned alongside the construction hall’s submarine-launch quay. Since this drydock has seldom been observed positioned next to the quay, its presence may indicate one of two developments.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Additional Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory and Uranium Enrichment Plant
By: Jack Liu, Olli Heinonen, Peter Makowsky and Frank Pabian March 12, 2021 Satellite Imagery Commercial satellite imagery indicates continued signs of operation at the thermal plant that supplies steam to the Radiochemical Laboratory (RCL), where plutonium is recovered from spent reactor fuel. There also appears to be additional activity at one of the cooling units of the RCL, although its purpose is unclear.
Pyongyang Prepares for Another Parade
By: Martyn Williams March 9, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Satellite Imagery Recent commercial satellite imagery of Pyongyang indicates rehearsals are underway at Kim Il Sung Square for what appears to be another upcoming parade.
Sinuiju City: Big Plans, Little Progress
By: Martyn Williams March 8, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Satellite Imagery In mid-November 2018, Kim Jong Un inspected a vast diorama of redevelopment plans for Sinuiju City, a major city along the Sino-DPRK border. The model depicted a larger, more modern Sinuiju with plenty of high-rise buildings, grand avenues, a sports district and lots of industrial space. But more than two years later, little has changed in one of North Korea’s most important border cities. So, what happened? Figure 1.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Signs of Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory Facilities
By: Peter Makowsky, Frank Pabian and Jack Liu March 3, 2021 Satellite Imagery On March 1, 2021, the IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi stated in his introductory statement to the Board of Governors that, since his last report to the Board on September 3, 2020, “some nuclear facilities in the DPRK continued to operate while others remained shut down.” Regarding North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center, he went on to state there were “recent indications of operation of the steam plant”...
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