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Articles by Gary D. Halbert
Uncle Sam Is Fastest Growing U.S. Job Market - Not Good Original
IN THIS ISSUE: Overview: Touching On Several Different Topics Today U.S. Government Fastest Growing Job Market – Not Good President Biden’s Record Job Creation Claims Are Bogus Record Heat Causes People To Do Some Strange Things Overview: Touching On Several Different Topics Today Normally, I focus these weekly letters on one single pressing topic. Today, however, I don’t see one pressing topic to focus on.
Making Sure All Of Your Bank Accounts, Etc. Are Fully Insured
FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER by Gary D. Halbert IN THIS ISSUE: Recent Bank Failures Have Large Investors Concerned How Does FDIC Deposit Insurance Work? How Can You Insure More Than $250,000 Could The Fed Have Saved Silicon Valley & Signature Banks?
Gold & Silver Have Disappointed As Inflation Hedges
MENAFN- ValueWalk) FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER by Gary D. Halbert February 14, 2023 Gates Capital Management Reduces Risk After Rare Down Year [Exclusive] Gates Capital Management's ECF Value Funds have a fantastic track record. The funds (full-name Excess Cash Flow Value Funds), which invest in an event-driven equity and credit strategy, have produced a 12.6% annualised return over the past 26 years.
Inflation Worse Than We’re Being Told, Jobs Not As Good Either
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Inflation Hits 40-Year High, But Really Is Even Higher 2. The Strong Jobs Market Slows Significantly In August 3. The US Consumer Sentiment Index Hits Record Low 4. Conclusions: So, Are We In A Recession Or Not? Overview: Inflation Higher Than Reported, Jobs Not As Strong Either Over the summer, we’ve been told that inflation rose to a 40-year high. It’s even higher than that if measured by conventional methods of the past.
70% Of Americans See The Economy Getting Worse
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Nearly 70% of Adults See Economy Worsening 2. Half of US Companies Planning To Cut Jobs 3. 98 Million Americans Delaying Healthcare Overview – Most Americans See Economy Getting Worse President Biden denies the US economy is in a recession despite the fact that we just endured two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which many consider the classic definition of a recession. Now a new poll finds that almost 70% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.
New “Inflation Reduction Act” Does No Such Thing
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Congress Passes The “Inflation Reduction Act” 2. Inflation Reduction Act Is A Sham, Will Not Work 3. How Inflation Soared To A 40-Year High 4. Will Inflation Reduction Act Bring Down Inflation? No 5.
Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview – Are We Really Headed Into A Recession? 2. Strongest Economic Growth In Decades – What Changed? 3. Consumers Are As Pessimistic Today As I Have Seen Them 4. Nearly 70% Of Economists & 60% Of CEOs Predict Recession 5. Will Falling Confidence Lead To Decreased Spending?
Strategic Petroleum Reserve To Drop 40 Percent As Biden Sells Oil
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. President Plans More Oil Sales From Emergency Stockpile 2. Government To Immediately Start Buying The Oil Back 3. Inflation Exploding – Wholesale Prices Surge 11% In April President Plans More Oil Sales From Emergency Stockpile The White House said last week it is prepared to begin large sales of crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Biden’s “Billionaires Tax” Affects More Than Billionaires
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. President Biden Proposes Massive Tax Increase 2. Understanding President’s So-Called “Billionaires’ Tax” 3. Democrats Favor Eliminating Loopholes in Tax Code 4. What Income Tax Strategies Are Safe Vs. Those At Risk Overview: President Biden Proposes Massive Tax Increase In his federal budget for fiscal year 2023 that he unveiled earlier this month, President Biden proposed a huge new tax increase on America’s wealthiest citizens.
Inflation Soars More - Fed Sure To Hike In March
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview – Inflation & the Fed Dominate the Headlines 2. U.S. Inflation Jumps To 40-Year High in January – Why? 3. Fed Big-Shot Calls For Much Bigger Initial Rate Hike 4. The Huge January Jobs Report Requires A Closer Look Overview – Inflation & the Fed Dominate the Headlines Some weeks, it can be hard to find a topic I think is really interesting to write about. Then there are other weeks when so much is happening I don’t know where to start. This is one of those weeks.
Biden Economy Is Failing The "Big Mac" Test
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview – The “Big Mac Index” Revisited 2. President Biden Celebrates First Year In Office 3. The Question Is: Do Most Americans Agree? No 4.
Home Sales Surge, But Few Homes Now Left For Sale
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Gross Domestic Product Surges Almost 7% in 4Q 2. US Market For Residential Homes Is Challenging 3. Sales of Existing Homes Hit 15-Year High In 2021 4. Shortage: Homes Available For Sale Hit Record Low 5. Tons of Federal Red Ink: Biden’s Big Spending Agenda Overview: US Market For Residential Homes Is Challenging Sales of existing homes in the US exploded in December to over 6 million units, a new record, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Did "Mark-To-Market" Rules Cause The Financial Crisis?
1. “Mark-To-Market” Versus “Historical Cost” Accounting 2. Mark-To-Market Accounting and the Great Financial Crisis 3. FASB Relaxed Mark-To-Market Rules in March 2009 4. Surprise: Trump’s Tax Cuts Help Low Wage Workers the Most Overview Last Saturday, September 15, 2018, marked the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, which set off the worst US financial crisis since the Great Depression.
This Bull Market in Stocks is Longest in US History
2. Forecasters: Stock Bull Market Has Further to Run 3. Another Government Shutdown Possible on October 1st 4. NY Governor Cuomo Says America “Was Never That Great” The current bull market in US stocks began on March 9, 2009 and tomorrow it will become the longest bull market in America’s history. The S&P 500 Index has advanced over 320% since its low in 2009. And most forecasters believe the market has further to run.
Public Companies Disappearing - Investors Lose Opportunities
1. 2Q GDP Hits 4.1% on Strong Consumer Spending 2. Number of US Public Companies Falls by Almost 50% 3. Fewer Public Companies = Lost Investor Opportunities Most investors are not aware of this but the number of publicly-traded companies listed on US stock exchanges has plunged almost 50% since the peak in 1996. This phenomenon is not limited to the United States.
Republicans Outspend Democrats On Earmarks, Set Record
1. Congressional Earmarks: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly 2. Republicans Set Record For Big Spending on Earmarks 3. Earmarks Help Make Congress Even More Corrupt Republicans claim to be fiscal conservatives but they're governing like out-of-control swamp creatures. Not only has the federal budget gone up every year the Republicans have been in control, new data show they will outspend Democrats on so-called “earmarks” this year and will set a new record.
Inverted Yield Curve & New Recession - Probably Not
1. The Treasury Yield Curve Has Narrowed Significantly 2. Why an Inverted Yield Curve is Bad For the Economy 3. Economists’ Survey: Next Recession in 2020 or 2021 The “yield curve” has been a popular topic of discussion this year. The yield curve is the spread between interest rates at various maturities, typically among Treasury securities. Normally, there is an interest rate premium the further you go out on the maturity scale (1-year, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year).
Many Americans Not Benefitting From Strong Economy
The US economy continues to gain momentum. More and more forecasters are predicting GDP growth of 4% or better for the second half of this year. Yet while the economy is strengthening, many Americans are not fully benefitting from the improvement. Today, we’ll take a look at some of the reasons why.
National Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG!
1. Over 40 Years of Writing This Newsletter 2. National Debt Not a Problem – We Owe It to Ourselves 3. So How Much Debt is Too Much Debt? 4. Exciting New Investment Opportunity Coming Our national debt has swelled to a record $21.16 trillion as of this writing. That includes debt held by the public ($15.4 trillion) and intra-governmental debt ($5.7 trillion). At $21+ trillion, our national debt is well above 100% of our Gross Domestic Product of $19.97 trillion.
Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork
The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve is the furthest along in this process, with the European Central Bank second and the Bank of Japan a distant third.
Social Security & Medicare Annual Reports: What You Need to Know
1. Social Security – A Quick Look at the Basics 2. Report Says Social Security Still Solvent, But a Big Change 3. Medicare to Go Broke in 2026 or Even Sooner 4. Conclusions: We Desperately Need Entitlement Reform Once each year, the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are required to provide a detailed status report to Congress, including financial projections well into the future. The latest reports were provided to Congress last week. There was good news and bad news, as usual.
U.S. Moves Back To #1 In Global Competitiveness Ranking
1. First Quarter GDP Growth Slowed to 2.2% Annual Rate 2. Can the US Economy Really Grow at 3% or Better This Year? 3. US Regains #1 Spot in Global Competitiveness Ranking 4. How Candidate & President Trump’s Critics Got It So Wrong A surprising new report from a respected independent research group in Switzerland concluded that the United States has regained its position as the #1 nation in its global competitiveness ranking.
US Birthrate At 30-Year Low, Fertility Rate At Record Low
1. US Birthrate Falls to 30-Year Low in 2017 2. Is the Drop in Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon? 3. Birthrates Decline For Almost All American Age Groups 4. Conclusions & Solutions – No Easy Way Out Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc, Also read Lear Capital: Financial Products You Should Avoid?
US Birthrate At 30-Year Low, Fertility Rate At Record Low
1. US Birthrate Falls to 30-Year Low in 2017 2. Is the Drop in Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon? 3. Birthrates Decline For Almost All American Age Groups 4. Conclusions & Solutions – No Easy Way Out The government reported earlier this month that the US birthrate fell to the lowest level since 1987 last year, despite an increase in the number of child-bearing age women in the population since then.
Why Trade Deficits Are Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
1. Why Trade Deficits Are Not Always a Bad Thing 2. Trade Deficits Are Common Among Developed Nations 3. Why the US Dollar is Rising & Can It Continue? Today, I want to disagree with a widely-held view by the mainstream media and President Trump that trade deficits are always a bad thing. I also want to disagree with the idea that trade deficits with the US mean that our trading partners are taking advantage of us.
Oil Surges Above $70/Barrel - Highest Since 2014
1. A Brief History of Oil Prices in Recent Years 4. Oil is a Commodity Subject to Supply and Demand A Brief History of Oil Prices in Recent Years From mid-2011 to 2014, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude oil traded in a lofty range of $80-$110 per barrel. But in late 2014, oil prices began a dramatic plunge. Here’s a brief explanation. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc, Also read Lear Capital: Financial Products You Should Avoid?
Interest on the National Debt Set to Skyrocket in the Future?
1. Record # of Fidelity Clients Have $1 Million Saved For Retirement 4. Interest on the National Debt Set to Skyrocket in the Future Today we’re going to look at how Washington spends our tax dollars. Specifically, we’ll look at a new report which shows how the federal government spends the income tax paid by the average family – and how they spend even more than what’s collected to create massive budget deficits year after year after year. I think you’ll find it very interesting.
On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve
We touch on several bases today, starting with last Friday’s initial estimate of 1Q GDP, which was lower than the pace of growth in the 4Q but above the pre-report consensus. From there, we look at private-sector wages which rose by the most in 11 years in the 1Q – a nice surprise. The Fed’s monetary policy committee is meeting today and tomorrow, and the question is whether there will be two or three more interest rate hikes this year. I’ll give you my thoughts.
How Washington Will Spend Your Taxes in 2018
1. Record # of Fidelity Clients Have $1 Million Saved For Retirement 2. How Washington Spends the Average Household’s Taxes 3. Social Security, Medicare, Welfare, Defense, Veterans, Etc. 4. Interest on the National Debt Set to Skyrocket in the Future Today we’re going to look at how Washington spends our tax dollars.
Tax Cuts Clearly Boost Economy & Pay For Themselves
1. Tax Cuts Boost the Economy & Mostly Pay For Themselves 2. Out-of-Control Federal Spending is Still the Main Problem 3. Should We Finally Start to Worry About Higher Inflation? Tax Cuts Boost the Economy & Mostly Pay For Themselves The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated budget forecasts last week, and everyone focused on the projection that US budget deficits will top $1 trillion in 2020 and grow even larger in subsequent years.
Over 70 Of Young Americans Can't Serve In Military
2. 71% of Young Americans Unable to Serve in Military 3. Ready, Willing But Unable to Serve in the Military 4. Lack of Education is a Serious Recruiting Problem 5. Conclusions: Less Than 29% of Young People Can Serve I recently ran across a statistic that just blew me away – I had never seen it before. According to the US Defense Department, over 70% of young Americans aged 17-24 are ineligible to serve in the military.
The US Labor Shortage That Will Only Get Worse
2. When Labor Shortages Hit, They Can Last For Years Debi and I have been out of town the last several days helping our son and daughter-in-law move into their first house. As a result, I have reprinted an excellent but very concerning article which appeared in Barron’s last month. We have a growing labor shortage in the US, and it will get worse before it gets better. You need to be aware of this problem as it will significantly affect the economy and the markets. Please read on.
Why US Healthcare Costs Are Highest in the World
1. Reasons Why US Healthcare Costs Are Out of Control 2. Other Reasons Why US Healthcare Costs So Much 3. We Spend More But Outcomes Are Often Worse At Halbert Wealth Management, we often assist clients with their financial planning and such discussions invariably turn to medical costs in retirement. As everyone reading this knows, healthcare costs in America are off the charts.
How China Could Punish The US In A Trade War
How China Could Punish the US in a Trade War How China Could Punish the US in a Trade War 2. How China Can Punish the US in a Trade War President Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in new annual tariffs against China, following through on a long-time threat to punish China for intellectual property infringement and create more American jobs. I, on the other hand, fear that this move will result in a trade war with China just ahead.
Tariffs Hurt All Americans, Tax Cuts Gain Popularity
1. Trump’s Bad Decision on Steel & Aluminum Tariffs 2. Tax Cuts Gaining Popularity Despite Great Media Lie 3. What Americans Are Doing With Their Tax Cut Windfall The White House announced late last week that President Trump will enact new protectionist tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum. This move set off fears of a new trade war as foreign trading partners most affected by the new tariffs are expected to retaliate with new tariffs of their own that will hurt US industries.
Is America’s “Crumbling Infrastructure” Overblown? | RealClearMarkets
Is America’s “Crumbling Infrastructure” Overblown? President Trump wants to spend $1.5 trillion rebuilding America's infrastructure – roads, bridges, airports, railroads, ports, water systems and whatnot – over the next decade. In his latest record-breaking $4.4 trillion federal budget for FY2019, Mr. Trump included an initial $200 billion for infrastructure spending, which he hopes to leverage to $1.5 trillion by getting state and local governments to put up the remaining $1.3 trillion.
The Fallacy of America's "Crumbling Infrastructure"
3. Politics Often Dictate Where Infrastructure Money is Spent President Trump wants to spend $1.5 trillion rebuilding America’s infrastructure – roads, bridges, airports, railroads, ports, water systems and whatnot – over the next decade.
The Fallacy Of America’s "Crumbling Infrastructure"
3. Politics Often Dictate Where Infrastructure Money is Spent Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here. President Trump wants to spend $1.5 trillion rebuilding America’s infrastructure – roads, bridges, airports, railroads, ports, water systems and whatnot – over the next decade.
Scary Return To Trillion-Dollar Budget Deficits
3. Trump Said He Would Support 25-Cent Gas/Diesel Tax With Congress’ passage of an additional $368 billion in federal spending over the next two years on February 9, our government budget deficits could approach, and perhaps exceed, $1 trillion annually for the next several years. That’s very scary! Particularly disappointing for conservatives is the fact that numerous Republicans voted for this huge government spending boondoggle.
The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks
1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 2. Confluence of Negative Factors Became Important 3. The Falling US Dollar Suddenly Became a Problem 4. Conclusions: Where Do We Go From Here?? Last week’s carnage in the US stock markets was one of the worst meltdowns I have witnessed in my 40+ years in the investment business.
The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks
1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 3. The Falling US Dollar Suddenly Became a Problem 4. Conclusions: Where Do We Go From Here?? Last week’s carnage in the US stock markets was one of the worst meltdowns I have witnessed in my 40+ years in the investment business. Most US stock indexes plunged over 10% in value from Friday, February 2 to the lows on Friday, February 9 – complete with two days where the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 1,000 points in one session.
Demographic Trends Suggest Slower US Economic Growth
2. Demographics: New Report – “Aging in the United States” 3. US Life Expectancy Declines For Second Straight Year 4. Another Problem: Too Many Jobs, Not Enough Workers Stock Market Correction: Before I get to our main topic today, here my thoughts on the stock markets.
The US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter
1. Advance GDP Report Missed Expectations at Only 2.6% 2. US Economic Strength Lifts Other Nations as Well 3. Disabled Americans Rejoining Workforce in Record Numbers The most significant economic news of late was last Friday’s disappointing report on 4Q Gross Domestic Product which came in at only 2.6% (annual rate) versus the pre-report consensus of 3.0%. I’ll give you the details on Friday’s advance GDP report below.
The US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter
2. US Economic Strength Lifts Other Nations as Well The most significant economic news of late was last Friday’s disappointing report on 4Q Gross Domestic Product which came in at only 2.6% (annual rate) versus the pre-report consensus of 3.0%. I’ll give you the details on Friday’s advance GDP report below. The weaker than expected GDP number dashed the hopes of many forecasters who had predicted that the US economy would boom in 2018. I discussed this in my BLOG last week.
Savings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar
1. US National Savings Rate Falls to 2.9%, Decade Low 2. Median Savings Rates by Income Levels & Age Groups 3. Consumer Credit & Credit Card Debt Skyrocketed in 2017 Over the last several months, I have written often about how the US economy has strengthened significantly since the disappointing 1Q of last year. This time last year, most forecasters felt the economy would do well to grow by 2% in 2017.
Savings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar
Over the last several months, I have written often about how the US economy has strengthened significantly since the disappointing 1Q of last year. This time last year, most forecasters felt the economy would do well to grow by 2% in 2017. As we know now, the economy accelerated by over 3% (annual rate) in the 2Q and 3Q and expectations are that we had 3+% growth in the 4Q as well. We’ll know for sure this Friday when the Commerce Department releases its first estimate of 4Q GDP.
Stocks Definitely Overvalued - Government Shutdown Looms
1. US Stocks Most Overvalued Since Dotcom Bubble in 2000 2. Investors’ Stock Allocations Approaching Dotcom Levels 3. Conclusions – What To Do Now? Consider Alternatives I don’t make market predictions very often. Normally, I leave those decisions to the professional money managers we recommend at Halbert Wealth Management. However, some recent developments have made me very concerned that the US equity markets are at high risk for a serious downward correction just ahead.
Stocks Definitely Overvalued - ValueWalk
1. US Stocks Most Overvalued Since Dotcom Bubble in 2000 3. Conclusions – What To Do Now? Consider Alternatives I don’t make market predictions very often. Normally, I leave those decisions to the professional money managers we recommend at Halbert Wealth Management. However, some recent developments have made me very concerned that the US equity markets are at high risk for a serious downward correction just ahead.
Will Our Strong Economy Spike Inflation in 2018?
1. The Main Ways That We Measure Price Inflation 2. Core-CPI Has Been Below 2% For the Last 8 Years 3. Reasons Why Inflation Could Move Higher in 2018 4. Is 2018 the Year That US Inflation Takes Off? 5. What the US Dollar & Gold Are Signaling for Inflation As you know, a lot of predictions are made this time of year – about the economy, the markets, interest rates, inflation, etc. Some forecasters are predicting that 2018 will finally be the year when inflation takes off and returns to higher levels.
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