Keith Jurow

Recently the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) — conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — extended the moratorium for both evictions and foreclosures until the end of the year. Many homeowners breathed a sigh of relief. Indeed, over the past few months the number of borrowers with active forbearances has declined. But that’s no reason for optimism. The more serious matter is how many homeowners are now delinquent.

Back in January, my column for Marketwatch detailed the massive danger that jumbo mortgages posed for U.S. mortgage and housing markets. After months of actions to counter the impact of COVID 19, the potential jumbo mortgage disaster is clearer than ever. Jumbo mortgages are loans that are larger than the limits set for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the FHA to guarantee or insure. During the craziest years of the housing bubble, 2004 through 2007, close to $3.1 trillion in jumbos was originated.

Everyone wants to know what impact the coronavirus and the government response to it will have on housing markets. While it is too early to hazard a guess, some things are becoming increasingly clear. Already, it looks as if the U.S. is moving towards a temporary moratorium on mortgage payments. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled an emergency program which provides a two-month deferral of mortgage payments for any homeowner who claims to be facing a hardship because of the virus.