Graham Brownlow

In Two Paths to Prosperity, Greif, Mokyr, and Tabellini (GMT) apply their formidable analytical powers to explaining the divergent trajectories followed by China and Western Europe. In the book's conclusion it is observed that, while much of the economic history literature is focused on the persistence of differences between societies, over the very long run historical reversals have also existed (p.468).

The Good Friday Agreement ended a three decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland. Peace has brought some economic improvements, including lower unemployment, higher wages for low earners and the arrival of new industries. But progress in other areas – particularly productivity – has been limited. The Belfast or Good Friday Agreement was the deal signed on 10 April 1998 that brought a cessation to the Northern Ireland Troubles.

Brexit and the NI protocol: a case of swings and roundabouts? In this section, we apply some of the historical insights regarding productivity and competition developed in the previous sections of the paper to consider the NP as drafted originally is yet another case where both costs and benefits were present. The hybridisation aspect of the original NP – i.e. the fact it allowed unfettered access to Britain while retaining SEM benefits – for good or ill was a very real one.