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Articles by Greg Taylor
Market strangeness
Equities rising despite higher Treasury yields Equity markets enjoyed a relatively calm end to summer, as August gave investors a reprieve from recent volatility and offered some time to relax. However, once the calendar turned to September and schools reopened, it seemed a switch was flipped. The first signs showed up in the U.S. bond market. We believe stubborn inflation, increasing deficits and a flood of AI bond issuance became too much to handle, and yields shot higher.
Steady supply of capital supports stock markets
But bond markets are sending out warning signals One phrase that I feel is true more often than not is, “Markets will do what makes the most people wrong.” This August seems to have captured that phrase perfectly. During what is normally one of the quietest and most volatile parts of the calendar, anyone who stepped to the sidelines missed one of the better months of the year. 2026 has not gone anywhere close to expectations.
Articles - Summer storms - Fund Library
Market volatility driven by rate uncertainty, trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts July continued the themes of a summer of uncertainties, as global events continue to shape the macroeconomic backdrop, creating new opportunities as well as risks for investors. As the month came to a close, investors remained cautious as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, and once again shipping through the Strait of Hormuz came to an effective standstill.
Signs and portents of market tops
Things may not be as rosy as they appear At various points during July, it started to feel like markets were finally going to break. After months of defying negative headlines and ominous signals, this seemed to be the window for the correction many had been waiting for. Yet, it never really played out that way. As usual the bond market caught on to this first. This was supposed to be the year that saw bond yields fall, but instead they have rallied.
The next six months: expect the unexpected
Avoid complacency, look for opportunities in volatility The first half of the year had a little of everything. We have all come to expect the unexpected under President Trump, but the events that have unfolded caught even the most cynical off guard. Heading into 2026, one of the consensus calls was that the U.S. Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would cut interest rates.
Summer of our discontent?
All-time stock market highs, dramatic price moves seen as ‘late cycle’ behaviour The month of May felt an awful lot like April, and it’s not just the weather. April was a positive month that saw equity markets recover most, if not all, of the March losses stemming from the U.S.-Iran war concerns. Turning the calendar over to May, many market observers were calling for more of a pause.
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Stock markets all fired up, bonds more cynical
Equity rally baffles as many investors go defensive The equity market rally that closed out the month of March continued through April. This rally has baffled many and is becoming a notable example of what is referred to as the “pain trade.” Given recent headlines, many investors had gone defensive. Yet against all odds, markets finished the month near all-time highs. With the number of negative indicators, most would have expected (and did expect) the equity market to be lower.
Opportunity at the exits
Classic contrarian setup developing as bearish sentiment grows For the last year, global equity markets have largely done a good job of overlooking adversity. From trade wars to AI disruption, stocks have been able to climb the proverbial “wall of worry” to record levels. However, as tensions with Iran evolved into a full-on conflict, it became too much to ignore, and markets fell. March was a wild month, and while a last-day rally made it look better, it has left scars on many investors.
Volatility and the Ides of March
Seasonal effect even more likely this year February might be remembered as the month the dreams of AI started to turn into a nightmare. After a few years in which just mentioning AI in a press release would get you a multiple boost, that suddenly flipped. Fears of AI disrupting business models and destroying jobs across the entire economy took over. This was the predominate theme that emerged during earnings season, and it may take a while to go away.
As goes January…
Better buckle up – it could be a wild ride Many consider the month of January as a good leading indicator of how the year will play out. Well, if this year is going to follow that pattern, we had better all buckle up, as it could be quite the ride. January finished with a whimper as markets fell on the last trading day to close slightly positive on the month, but that comes no where close to telling the whole story. It was one of those months during which weeks felt like years.
Leadership rotation
Waning momentum of tech giants in 2026 market leadership Momentum is a wonderful thing, and that was seen in abundance in 2025, with global equity markets experiencing their third straight year of strong performance. Of course it wasn’t all smooth sailing, as we now know that nothing with the current leadership in Washington will be easy.
Investors hit a home run in 2025
But the year ain’t over ’til it’s over Another month is in the books along with another move to all-time highs for many equity indexes. The strength of this bull market really has been impressive, and the fact no one was calling for it makes it even more enjoyable. Like the Blue Jays, the year began with very low expectations, but all of those have been surpassed, even if there won’t be a parade.
Pender Market Insights
Another month is in the books along with another move to all-time highs for many equity indices. The strength of this bull market really has been impressive, and the fact no one was calling for it makes it even more enjoyable. Like the Blue Jays, the year began with very low expectations, but all of those have been surpassed, even if there won’t be a parade. Investors have gotten into the habit of expecting some sort of volatility in the Fall, as we begin to look forward to the coming year.
Lurking mean reversion
Things are comfortable – too comfortable It can become somewhat unsettling when it seems everything is working. We normally live in a world of mean reversion and while winning streaks can be fun, they often are followed by a rough patch. That has to be what many investors are feeling these days. Since the “Liberation Day” selloff in April, the worst thing to do was hold cash, as most equity indices have rallied by over 35% and are now sitting at or near all-time highs.
Pender Market Insights
It can become somewhat unsettling when it seems everything is working. We normally live in a world of mean reversion and while winning streaks can be fun, they often are followed by a rough patch. That has to be what many investors are feeling these days. Since the ‘Liberation Day’ selloff in April, the worst thing to do was hold cash, as most equity indices have rallied by over 35% and are now sitting at or near all-time highs.
Markets, rate cuts, and the warning from gold
September could bring increasing volatility August lived up to its reputation for volatility; however, this year the move was to the upside. There has been much for investors to be concerned with this year, and that has kept many on the sidelines. That may still prove to be the correct positioning, but the “pain trade” remains higher, and there is a bias to the upside. Earnings season has come and gone, and by and large it has been positive.
Stretched markets could be due for a reset
Do not ignore warning signals! Like a giant black hole from a summer blockbuster movie that pulls in everything around it, equity markets continue to drag cash off the sidelines. Global risk assets moved higher for the month of July as reasons to be bearish were overlooked and laughed off. But like all good things, they do come to an end, and that time appears to be nearing. The rally has been impressive.
Articles - Markets surge - Fund Library
But investors reluctant to embrace the rally Markets continued their surge off the April lows with one of the highest monthly returns in years, and the strongest May this century. The panic that hit investors a few weeks ago around tariffs and trade wars seems a long time ago and has been replaced with a mini FOMO (fear of missing out) market, as many who had sold out are now scrambling to get back in and chasing returns.
Confidence shaken, not stirred
Rising bond yields, slowing economy spook investors, businesses If somehow you spent the month of April off the grid and came back to see index returns that are basically flat, you might have thought the month was nothing notable. In fact, it was anything but. Those who can remember the global financial crisis experienced a form of PTSD watching volatility and price moves that were eerily reminiscent.
Position now for the coming pivot
Rock-bottom investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator So, when do we get the good stuff? Back in November, equity markets celebrated the election results with President Trump and the Republican party sweeping Washington. At the time, this was cheered, as it was going to unlock growth throughout the U.S. and global markets. Taxes were expected to be cut and needless regulations slashed, all in an effort to spur growth. However, a few months into this new presidency, the opposite has occurred.
Triple threat: Trump, tariffs, and turmoil
What investors need to know We’re one month into the new year, and while equity markets are already into positive territory, it feels like a repeat of last year’s strong gains will be challenging. Many indices are at, or near, all-time highs and valuations for many sectors have reached levels that are no longer “cheap.” In order to move higher, a lot will have to go perfectly. That makes for a risky setup and the potential for some big swings.
Fed brakes, markets skid
Year-end volatility a sign of things to come? Much like a surprise holiday guest, December’s market shift was uninvited and unplanned. After the U.S. election, equity markets were in full party mode, with investors dreaming of a booming economy, Chinese stimulus, and the possibility of future rate cuts. It was a powerful mix of positive factors that pulled money off the sidelines and into risk assets. For six weeks, the gains kept rolling in.
Can equity momentum persist into 2025?
Get ready for volatility and speed bumps ahead What a month November was! For all the apprehension that investors had felt going into the month, it seems it was all for nothing. Many equity markets saw strong gains, and most indexes are at all-time highs. We entered the month with many concerns. Inflation remained a tough foe to beat, causing yields to spike; corporate earnings were coming in weaker than forecast; and, of course, a U.S. election that was too close to call.
Articles - Back in play - Fund Library
A bullish case after a month of suspense on the sidelines For parts of this year, investing felt a little too easy. And when things are too good to be true, that’s often a sign you should begin to prepare for something bad to happen. Since August, many have been on guard for some sort of volatility to enter the market. Yet, outside of a few one-off down days, it hasn’t shown up. So far, this year has surprised many market observers, as pretty much everything has worked.
Articles - Stranger things - Fund Library
A change in seasons heralds more volatility as risks remain For many, summer months are a time to slow down and reset for the coming colder weather. Yet for investors, it’s often a time to be on edge, as August has gained the reputation as the month that volatility begins to increase, and strange things occur. If that is what you were expecting heading into the month, you weren’t disappointed this year.
Season of uncertainty gets an extra dose of volatility
Time to consider defensive strategies and capital preservation As Lenin is quoted as saying, “There are decades where nothing happens; there are weeks where decades happen.” That seems to be the case for July. Typically, summer markets are calm and uneventful as investors take a step back. That has not been the case this year.
Megacaps party on
Will other sectors join in? It’s hard to complain about the equity market performance for the first half of the year. When everyone was making their annual predictions, most had expected a year of single-digit rates of return for markets, as earnings growth would slow in the face of a broader economic slowdown. However, much of what those predictions were based on hasn’t come to pass. As in most cases, earnings have been stronger than expected, and valuations have continued to increase.
Good news all baked in
Re-pricing of risk and mid-year pullback a possibility The saying goes, “April showers bring May flowers.” While that’s more of a weather reference, this year, it also worked for the capital markets – especially if those flowers are in the form of semiconductors. After a weak equity performance in April, markets had a strong bounceback in May.
Volatility returns
April was the cruelest month Consistent with the soggy weather, the month of April saw the return of dark skies for equity markets. While the headlines show North American equity markets had the worst monthly performance numbers since last fall, down 4.1% for the S&P 500 and down 1.8% for the S&P/TSX Composite, the real story is the return of volatility.
Is market enthusiasm overdone?
Tempering expectations As always, the market will “do what makes the most people wrong.” Looking back at strategy reports from a few months ago, the consensus for the year was notably muted. Most had been expecting single-digit equity returns and a more cautious economic outlook. The big theme in the bond market centred around rate cuts – expecting six – and predicting that yields would fall dramatically.
Where’s the broad market rally?
Magnificent 7 tech stocks still lead, but broader market holding back The more things change, the more they stay the same. Apparently, a little over two months ago, the calendar flipped in December to begin a new year; however, looking at financial markets, you could be forgiven for thinking that 2023 has just continued into its 15th month. The themes that dominated last year continue to lead as we start this year.
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Keeping the genie bottled up
Bond markets backing off rate-cut optimism In many ways, it feels like 2023 never ended. Looking at equity markets, the same names continue to lead the market higher. The so-called “Magnificent 7” may have lost a member after the awful Tesla quarter, but the group continues to head higher on optimism around AI growth.
Good prospects for a positive year in markets
Potential reversion trade setting up in lagging areas As we put the finishing touches on 2023, it’s instructive to look back at the year to observe how different it turned out from what most were predicting. It was expected to be a negative year for the equity markets, with most economies entering a severe recession. Yet we ended the year with most equity indexes at, or near, all-time highs, and recession talk all but forgotten for the near term.
Clockwork seasonality
Textbook November market bounceback While not every investment strategy has worked as planned this year, one has done very well of late: seasonality. Since the summer, equity markets have followed the seasonal pattern to a tee. After a quiet summer, volatility picked up in August, and markets fell under the stress of uncertainty through September and October.
Is that a new dawn on the horizon?
Worst may be behind markets as seasonal volatility recedes Market participants have learned to expect an increase in volatility during the months of August through October, and this year didn’t disappoint. While many indicators haven’t worked as well lately, seasonality seems to be working out well as an indicator. This year hasn’t gone to the script many had expected back in January. But instead of those predictions being completely offside, perhaps they were just early.
Looking for happy landings
Markets not pricing in a “hard” landing Market history is full of times of stress in the third quarter of they year, and everyone knows of the market crashes that have occurred in the past. But most of the time, this stress is centred on the equity market and is the result of market excesses. Only time will tell if the current spate of market stress develops into something along the lines of previous events.
Beware the September surprise!
Slowing economy, persistent inflation, volatile markets Once again, August lived up to its well-earned reputation for volatility. Even with a late-month rally, the S&P 500 posted its first monthly decline since February. It’s difficult to point towards the exact catalyst that caused the drop in equity markets, as there were several candidates. Was it the higher move in bond yields? Was it the risk of a slowdown or financial crisis in China? Or was it the increasing odds of a recession in 2024?
Markets in the summer doldrums
Is current low volatility the calm before the storm? With the dog days of summer thoroughly entrenched, for those that haven’t looked at their portfolios for the last few weeks, it’s good to know that not much has changed. As we have seen throughout the year, equity markets continue to grind higher, overcoming all obstacles and crushing the bear arguments. Heading into this year, one of the biggest fears for investors was around an earnings contraction.
The wall of worry
Are markets climbing it now? The first half of the year has been much different than most had predicted. After an awful 2022, equity investors’ mood was sour, and most were expecting that this year would be a continuation of the downdraft. There were lots of reasons why the floor would fall out on equities, ranging from a policy error by the central banks to a looming recession, which would weigh on earnings. However, at the halfway mark, things are looking much better than feared.
This trend is not your friend
Risk remains high for a reversal To say May was a tale of two markets doesn’t fully paint the picture of just how wide the divergence in returns was for the month. As AI hype fueled the mega-cap tech stocks higher, the rest of the market languished over concerns about the strength of the economy and banking system. For investors, the determining factor on whether you are enjoying this year is whether you had a weighting in these few winners.
Articles - Selling in May? - Fund Library
Revisiting the old adage Seasoned investors know that financial markets have a habit of doing what will make the most people wrong. Heading into this year, after an awful 2022, most were bearish as a recession was on the horizon, and risk assets were battered and beaten up. However, entering May, it seems as if everything went in the opposite direction from consensus predictions.
A little complacency is a dangerous thing
Market optimism through March seems premature Equity markets started 2023 with a bang. The technology stocks that suffered over the past year, as bond yields increased and pressured multiples, were able to lead the charge higher as investors began to anticipate the peak in central bank tightening. For most assets, the returns we have seen over the first quarter have been a mirror image of what occurred last year.
The investment perils of the Ides of March
Alas, Julius Caesar ignored the warning February saw equity markets reverse much of their gains from the start of the year. And now it looks like the debate investors were having around the health of the January bounce is being resolved in favour of the bears. In hindsight, that move seems to have been more of a reversal of the aggressive selloff in 2022 than the beginning of a broad-based rally.
Not out of the woods yet
A great deal of global risk still overhangs markets A few short weeks ago, strategists and market observers published their annual outlooks. Almost universally, they were cautious by predicting that 2023 would be a tough year for investors. However, as January ended with one of the strongest monthly returns we have seen in years, the biggest question on everyone's mind is: What is fact, and what is fiction?
Bracing for surprise
In 2023 the market will do what it does best – the unexpected Many investors consider 2022 to have been a disaster as almost all asset classes finished the year with negative returns. However, it may be better to think of it as the year that yields returned to normal.
November market bounce an early holiday gift
Not out of the danger zone just yet The six-month period after the U.S. midterm elections has historically been one of the best times for equity returns. But coming up to this year, there was concern if this would play out, given the number of additional factors affecting markets from war, to inflation, to aggressive central bankers. Well, so far so good, as November was broadly a positive month across risk assets. As has been the case this cycle, everything starts with the bond market.
Did stock markets just bottom out?
Tone of markets is beginning to change for the better After seeing markets fall dramatically through the month of September, investors entered October with a high level of caution and expectations for further weakness. These beliefs proved accurate for the first part of the month, as the S&P 500 and many other markets fell to new lows on the year and looked to be heading down further. However, investor sentiment rebounded mid-month, allowing markets to stage an impressive recovery.
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