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Articles by Gregory Poling
Understanding the Chinese-Language Media Landscape in Southeast Asia
The countries of the Indo-Pacific increasingly find themselves on the front line of the long-term strategic competition between the United States and China. In the South China Sea, China has used force and coercion to block Philippine resupply missions, while in the Taiwan Strait it has employed similar tactics to degrade Taiwanese administration of its airspace and waters.
Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum
The bilateral relationship between the United States and the Philippines has experienced a renaissance over the last five years due to significant legwork by the administrations of Presidents Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in the Philippines, and Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the United States. The alliance has never been stronger, and the momentum is unlikely to slow down.
Between Two Reefs: Indonesia’s Strategic Culture in the Twenty-First Century
This brief is part of a larger project on the Global South, led by the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy. It includes an edited volume entitled Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future. You can find more about the project here. Introduction In a landmark 1948 speech, Indonesia’s first vice president, Mohammad Hatta, proclaimed, “The best policy to adopt is one which does not make us the object of an international conflict.
The Global Alignment Index: Tracking Support for U.S., Chinese, and Russian Leadership
The United States and like-minded democracies are engaged in a systemic competition for global leadership. They are pitted against an increasingly coordinated authoritarian club that includes Iran, North Korea, and especially China and Russia. The military, economic, and technological aspects of that competition garner intense interest from policymakers and the wider public.
Southeast Asia Navigates Trump’s Return: Quick Deals, Lasting Dread
This commentary is part of a report from the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department entitled Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy. Introduction The policies of the second Trump administration have been worrying and disruptive for most partners across Southeast Asia, as is true around the world.
New Thai Prime Minister and the Fall of the Shinawatras
Thailand’s parliament on September 7 elected Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, as prime minister after months of political turmoil. As the third prime minister in just over a year, Anutin will lead a minority government with the two largest parties, the People’s Party and Pheu Thai, in opposition. A long-time figure in Thai politics, Anutin has waited in the wings for decades before maneuvering his way to the premiership—for now.
A Tricky Balancing Act for Southeast Asia
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis. Southeast Asian countries have long tried to balance relations between China and the United States — seeking to maintain their independence in economic policy and foreign relations while ensuring their country’s security. As Beijing became more assertive, particularly in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian countries had to adapt.
The Dangerous Allure of Myanmar’s Rare Earths
Early this week, Reuters reported that the Trump administration has been approached with two different proposals to shift U.S. engagement in the four-and-a-half-year Burmese civil war, to access Myanmar’s substantial reserves of rare earths. The former head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar, Adam Castillo, held a meeting with Vice President JD Vance’s office and urged the administration to seek an accommodation with the Burmese junta led by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing.
Beijing’s South China Sea Campaign of Intimidation Has Run Aground
During a June 17 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Steve Koehler declared that despite an ongoing campaign of intimidation against its smaller neighbors in the South China Sea, “China’s pressure is not working well.
Thailand Launches Airstrikes Amid Border Dispute with Cambodia
On July 24, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia entered open conflict over a long-term border dispute, exchanging gunfire and airstrikes in the deadliest clash between the two countries in over a decade. These developments, which follow months of simmering tensions and an earlier skirmish between troops on May 28, 2025, represent the sharpest escalation in conflict between Southeast Asian countries in recent years and a critical litmus test for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Gregory B. Poling: Finding Nemo’s Future: Conflicts over Ocean Resources
Chairman Sullivan, Ranking Member Blunt Rochester, distinguished Members of the Subcommittee, I am honored to share my views with you on the topic of illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing as a national security threat. CSIS does not take policy positions, so the views represented in this testimony are my own and not those of my employer.
Building Bridges, Countering Rivals: Strengthening U.S.-ASEAN Ties to Combat Chinese Influence
Chairwoman Kim, Ranking Member Bera, distinguished Members of the Subcommittee, I am honored to share my views with you on the topic of U.S.-ASEAN cooperation to combat China’s influence in the region. CSIS does not take policy positions, so the views represented in this testimony are my own and not those of my employer.
Australia Doubles Down on Southeast Asia
Over the past two weeks, leaders from around the world headed to Southeast Asia for two prominent gatherings—the first trilateral summit between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. These conclaves reinforce Southeast Asia’s position as an economic, security, and diplomatic powerhouse.
Crossroads of Competition: China in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands
Chair Price, Vice Chair Schriver, distinguished members of the Commission, I am honored to share my views with you on the topic of China’s grey zone coercion in the South China Sea. CSIS does not take policy positions, so the views represented in this testimony are my own and not those of my employer.
Beijing treads water in the South China Sea
2024 brought increased tensions between China and Southeast Asian nations over South China Sea disputes. China continued down the same dangerous but ultimately ineffective path it has walked since 2022, failing to make and consolidate gains in the region. Beijing modestly increased the intensity of China Coast Guard (CCG) patrols in the exclusive economic zones of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
In Brief: Asian Allies Adjust Security Policies in Response to Trump Administration
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** As America’s allies in Europe rush to adjust to the Trump administration’s foreign policy shifts, allies in Asia are also watching and considering how President Donald Trump will approach China and other security concerns in the Pacific.
How to Slay a Giant: Reviving the South China Sea Arbitration
Next year will mark the tenth anniversary of the Philippines’ legal victory in the South China Sea. On July 12, 2016, five judges in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague tossed out much of Beijing’s claim to the disputed waterway. According to Annex VII of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), their ruling was final and binding on both China and the Philippines. But after nearly a decade, China still refuses to comply, and the Philippines has little to show for its victory.
Manila and Beijing Clarify Select South China Sea Claims
On November 8, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed into law two pieces of legislation: the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. The laws elaborate Philippine maritime claims, including in the South China Sea, ensuring they are in line with international law.
U.S. Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye
The Issue The size and scope of U.S.-Philippine economic cooperation is well documented; however, the quantitative and qualitative impacts on the Philippines are poorly understood. Without comprehensive, accurate, and easily accessible data on U.S. investments and their effects in the Philippines, malign actors may promote false or harmful narratives, thereby weakening public support for the U.S.-Philippine alliance.
The Next Era of Economic Partnership & Opportunity
In July 2024, the Philippines hosted top U.S. officials for a meeting to deepen the U.S.-Philippine alliance, including through enhanced economic ties. The United States and the Philippines enjoy a rich, long-term relationship based on shared values, national interests, and strong people-to-people connections. In polling, Filipinos regularly identify the United States as one of the country’s most trusted partners.
Energy Security and the U.S.-Philippine Alliance
While survey participants favored energy transmission and grid development as the top targets for U.S. energy investment in the Philippines, over 40 percent also supported oil and gas exploration, while less than 25 percent expressed support for nuclear power. Planning for a Secure Transition The U.S. and Philippine teams were aligned in their goal of enabling the Philippines to resist coercion.
Biden Is Missing Another East Asia Summit. So What?
Laos is hosting a bevy of summits this week capping off the annual calendar of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The most prominent of these will be the ASEAN Summit, the U.S.-ASEAN leaders meeting (alongside summits between ASEAN and its other dialogue partners), and the East Asia Summit. The paramount leaders from the 10 ASEAN member states, along with future member Timor-Leste, will be there. So will the heads of state from most of the eight dialogue partners.
Early Success in Southeast Asia Will Run through the Philippines
Southeast Asia is at the forefront of U.S.-China strategic competition and is increasingly vital to U.S. economic goals. As companies diversify supply chains from China, the Vietnamese economy has led the way in attracting new investment, while other Southeast Asian countries—especially Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—are working to grow their piece of the pie.
In Brief: Is the United States Preparing for War with China?
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** Last week, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan traveled to China and met with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Central Military Commission vice chairman Gen. Zhang Youxia.
An Indispensable Upgrade: The U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
In 2025, U.S.-Vietnam relations will mark two important anniversaries: 50 years since the end of the Vietnam War and 30 years since the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam relations. These anniversaries reflect the United States and Vietnam’s long journey toward strong bilateral ties.
U.S. and Chinese Soft Power and Influence in Southeast Asia
Amid the lingering economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and an increasingly complex regional and global security landscape, power dynamics in Southeast Asia remain fluid. Under the Biden administration, the United States has eagerly sought to bolster its partnerships and alliances in Southeast Asia. Thus far, Washington’s efforts have been met positively, with opinion polling suggesting that the United States retains more soft power and popularity than China across most of the region.
A Tale of Two 2+2s: Japan and the Philippines
This week U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken and U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin visited Tokyo and Manila to meet with their counterparts in Japan and the Philippines—a rare sequence of “2+2” engagements on the ground in Asia. Both stops featured significant outcomes that signaled a period of historic strength among advanced alliances amid deep concern in Tokyo and Manila about a darkening regional security environment.
China plays word games and war games with Taiwan
On 23–24 May 2024, the Chinese military conducted a large-scale military exercise codenamed Joint Sword-2024A. Following the exercise, the Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command released a simulated video of an amphibious attack on Taiwan. Joint Sword-2024A and the simulated attack video has reignited discussions about rising cross-strait tensions.
The Passing of Vietnam Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong
Nguyen Phu Trong, longtime general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, died on July 19 at age 80. His passing after more than a decade in power marks the beginning of a struggle for political preeminence that will continue at least until Vietnam’s 14th Party Congress, scheduled for 2026. The inner workings of the party are opaque to outsiders, which will fuel uncertainty and much gossip in the intervening year and a half.
The South China Sea Dog that Hasn't Barked...Yet
Vietnam has been busy. In recent months, it has exponentially expanded the size of several features it controls in the Spratly Islands, including Barque Canada Reef, Namyit Island, Pearson Reef, and Discovery Great Reef. China appears to have allowed these expansion efforts to occur largely unmolested.
The South China Sea Dog that Hasn’t Barked … Yet
Vietnam has been busy. In recent months, it has exponentially expanded the size of several features it controls in the Spratly Islands, including Barque Canada Reef, Namyit Island, Pearson Reef, and Discovery Great Reef. China appears to have allowed these expansion efforts to occur largely unmolested.
Keeping Facebook responsible in Myanmar
In Myanmar, Facebook is the window to reality. In the early days of the 2021 coup, the Ministry of Transport and Communications imposed blocking orders on Facebook and WhatsApp. Most independent media have been extinguished amid financial and physical threats. Any disruption to Facebook access, relied upon by over half of Myanmar’s population as the country’s Internet, could be fatal to their freedom of speech.
A ‘New Trilateral Chapter’ for the United States, Japan, and the Philippines
President Joe Biden and his counterparts, Kishida Fumio and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., held the first-ever U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit on April 11. It was a manifestation of the importance of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, which emphasizes both military and economic security in cooperation with partners and allies. The Biden administration has emphasized that both economic and military support are necessary to ensure deep and resilient partnerships.
RO-RO ferries may be China’s route to reunification
In recent years, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has created a new normal in the Taiwan Strait, with regular PLA aircraft and vessel intrusions across the median line and in the Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone. The PLA has also started conducting large-scale military exercises and live-fire drills around Taiwan, especially since former US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August 2022.
Post-coup environmental degradation threatens Myanmar’s stability
Myanmar’s 2021 military coup has given rise to significant uncertainty regarding the stability of the country. The seizure of power by the military has sparked armed resistance and an overall deterioration in the country’s economic conditions. In response to international sanctions, the junta has been compelled to rely on its natural resource reserves to fund its military expenditure.
Examining US export controls against China
Discussions between the US Secretary of Commerce and the Chinese Minister of Commerce in November 2023 highlight the latest complexities in the US–China trade relationship. Secretary Gina Raimondo clarified that US export controls aim to protect national security without hindering China’s economic development. Minister Wang Wentao criticised the controls for adversely affecting normal trade practices, especially in China’s semiconductor industry.
China loses strategic waters in the South China Sea
From 2012 to 2021, Beijing steadily advanced its claim to ‘historic rights’ in most of the waters, seabed, and airspace of the South China Sea, using coercion and threats of force to do so. But since 2022, the momentum has shifted. Southeast Asian claimants have stopped giving ground. The most well-reported South China Sea story of 2023 was the ongoing crisis around Second Thomas Shoal where Manila is determined to repair the BRP Sierra Madre.
Sustaining the U.S.-Philippines-Japan Triad
The Issue China’s aggression in the South China Sea and increasingly aggressive posture toward Taiwan continue to pose a threat to the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. Recognizing the threat posed by Chinese revanchism, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States are working to deepen and better network their alliances.
Assessing U.S. and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia
Power dynamics in Southeast Asia, including soft power, are fluid. The continued economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s more insular nationalism, the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and widening U.S.-China strategic competition are shuffling U.S. and Chinese comparative advantages across the region.
2023 Thai Election Results: An Opposition Win but Unclear Path Ahead
On May 14, almost 40 million Thai voters—the most ever—headed to the polls for the since 2019. Initial results show that the opposition Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties won by a significant margin over their conservative and military-backed counterparts. The Move Forward Party stunned by winning the largest share of seats, as preelection polling had predicted a win by the Pheu Thai Party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
President Marcos Goes to Washington
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is wrapping up a four-day visit to Washington. The trip is another sign of the remarkable progress in the U.S.-Philippines alliance over the 18 months. During his visit, the Philippine leader met with President Joe Biden at the White House, had brunch with Vice President Kamala Harris, engaged with members of Congress, and became the first foreign leader to receive full honors at the Pentagon where he met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Clean Energy and Decarbonization in Southeast Asia: Overview, Obstacles, and Opportunities
Challenges to the Regional Energy Transition Fueling Development The projected increase in energy demand across the region threatens to make Southeast Asia’s current decarbonization targets unachievable, as current policies do not address how countries can balance the competing priorities of development and decarbonization.
Book Review: "The Point of No Return" by Thomas Byrne Edsall
In This Review In This Review The Point of No Return: American Democracy at the Crossroads For more than a decade, Edsall’s weekly columns in The New York Times have traced the evolution of U.S. politics, culture, demography, and large-scale social and economic change. The columns are packed with data, summaries of recent social science research, and the analysis of a large stable of academic and think-tank experts.
The U.S.-Philippine Alliance’s Very Busy Month
On April 11, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin welcomed their counterparts from the Philippines, Enrique Manalo and Carlito Galvez, to Washington for the third-ever U.S.-Philippines 2+2. It was the first such meeting in seven years and underscored the once-in-a-generation process of alliance modernization taking place between the two sides.
Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine
Galeotti compiles an encyclopedic study of the Russian armed forces. Based on meticulous research, which he says includes “some 30 years of interacting with soldiers,” he traces the evolution of the Russian military from its steep decline following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent humiliation of the first Chechen war (fought between 1994 and 1996) through the military reforms carried out during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule.
On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea
In This Review In This Review On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea As the world worries about whether China will attack Taiwan, Poling shows that Beijing has already decisively changed the balance of power in Asia without an effective U.S. response, by establishing military bases on seven enormous manmade islands in the South China Sea and crowding out the navies and fishing fleets of regional neighbors.
Sowing the seeds of EU–ASEAN agricultural research cooperation | East Asia Forum
Authors: Darryl Tan, BowerGroupAsia, Luzile Satur, University of Cologne, and Mirjam Le, University of Passau Over the past few years, ASEAN member states have faced food security issues. The twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war disrupted food supply chains as it impacted the flow of migrant workers who keep the agricultural sector running and constrained global output of wheat and fertiliser.
Why is India rolling back COVID-19 food aid?
Author: Jose Ma Luis Montesclaros, NTU Since 2013 India has allocated subsidised grains for its poorer populations under the at a cost of approximately US$24 billion annually. In April 2020, the government allocated additional grain as COVID-19 food aid at an additional cost of approximately US$47 billion, known as the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY). The PMGKAY program was hailed by an IMF report as critical to preventing a significant increase in extreme poverty in India.
A different kind of Asia Pacific minilateralism is now needed
Author: Editorial Board, ANU There’s no question that the risks of political and economic fragmentation that come with great power rivalry in Asia make the task of re-energising Asia Pacific regionalism an urgent priority. What requires more concerted thinking is where to find the new political coalitions capable of providing the leadership that a renewed regional effort will need — and how to define and articulate the interests that will be key to binding those coalitions in a common purpose.
Injustice persists amid security shake-up in the Philippines
Author: Kevin Nielsen M Agojo, City University of Hong Kong Barely a year into his administration, Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has undertaken a major reorganisation of state security institutions. Marcos Jr appointed General Andres Centino as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), a position that Centino held under former president Rodrigo Duterte.
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