JHU, AEI, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Author of new book, The Landscape of Power (Norton).
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Articles by Hal Brands
The Pentagon Needs More Than Killer Drones
Ignoring the lessons of recent wars can be deadly. Overlearning them can be fatal, too. Consider the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Both have shown that drones are transforming warfare, and the Pentagon is adjusting its capabilities for the future fight. But it’s a mistake to conclude that drones are making other weapons irrelevant. A less-appreciated lesson of these conflicts is that modern combat demands a mix of cheap, autonomous systems and more sophisticated capabilities.
The Pentagon Needs More Than Killer Drones
Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Europe (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Ignoring the lessons of recent wars can be deadly. Overlearning them can be fatal, too. Consider the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Trump cannot figure out peace in Ukraine
By Hal Brands / Bloomberg Opinion Add TT as Preferred Source US President Donald Trump’s deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia is a moral outrage: It rewards an aggressor that is terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, while punishing the victim for fighting back. Its economic benefits for the US would be modest at best. Above all, the deal is sadly indicative of a deeper failing in Trump’s Ukraine policy.
Trump Just Can’t Figure Out How to Make Peace in Ukraine
President Donald Trump’s deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia is a moral outrage: It rewards an aggressor that is terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, while punishing the victim for fighting back. Its economic benefits for America will be modest at best. Above all, the deal is sadly indicative of a deeper failing in Trump’s Ukraine policy. The president genuinely desires peace in that country. But his strategic blinders and indiscipline keep making that task harder.
Trump can’t figure out how to make peace in Ukraine. Russia diesel deal rewards aggressor, punishes victim
A bipartisan group of senators has already condemned the deal. Trump has defended it and announced an “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia — a breakthrough more imagined than real. Whatever comes of this episode, it illustrates how election-year incentives and economic blowback from the Iran War are affecting US foreign policy in theaters far beyond the Middle East. It’s also a window into the frustrations of Trump’s bid to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump Just Can’t Figure Out How to Make Peace: Hal Brands Original
President Donald Trump’s deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia is a moral outrage: It rewards an aggressor that is terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, while punishing the victim for fighting back. Its economic benefits for America will be modest at best. Above all, the deal is sadly indicative of a deeper failing in Trump’s Ukraine policy. The president genuinely desires peace in that country. But his strategic blinders and indiscipline keep making that task harder.
Trump Just Can’t Figure Out How to Make Peace in Ukraine
Photographer: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump’s deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia is a moral outrage: It rewards an aggressor that is terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, while...
AI Is Redrawing the Map of the US-China Rivalry
Technology is always changing; geography is far more constant. But innovation continually remakes the world’s strategic geography — the meaning and value of key terrain. Breakthroughs in sail and later steam brought an age of European global dominance. The internal combustion engine made the Middle East a jackpot and a tinderbox. The nuclear revolution cemented a Cold War order dominated by rival superpowers.
Umjetna inteligencija preoblikuje kartu suparništva SAD-a i Kine
Podijeli vijest Facebook Post Tweet WhatsApp Viber Email Pokloni članak Link copied Copy link Opće Umjetna inteligencija preoblikuje kartu suparništva SAD-a i Kine Izvor: Hal Brands/Bloomberg Sve vijesti iz rubrike Politika Politika Ovo je Trumpova ostavština na poluvremenu Analiza drugog mandata Donalda Trumpa pokazuje da su jednostrani vojni potezi i narušavanje tradicionalnih savezništava oslabili geopolitički položaj SAD-a te potaknuli partnere na traženje novih globalnih oslonaca.
AI Is Redrawing the Map of the US-China Rivalry
October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC Technology is always changing; geography is far more constant. But innovation continually remakes the world’s strategic geography — the meaning and value of key terrain.
Africa Is the New Front in the Middle East’s Wars
The battle for the Strait of Hormuz commands global attention, but keep an eye on the contested waterway west of the Arabian Peninsula as well. The entire Red Sea region is pulsing with rivalry; the combatants include great powers, nonstate actors and nearly everything in between. This corridor of conflict upsets global trade and roils regions spanning two continents. It may also offer a preview of broader disorder ahead.
Africa Is the New Front in the Middle East’s Wars
October 7, 2026 at 5:00 AM UTC A member of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, Aug. 19, 2026.
Trump’s UN Bluster Didn’t Impress Xi, Putin or Iran
Donald Trump loves playing the tough guy. The president postured from the podium at the United Nations this week. He threatened to send the Iranian regime “into hell”; he gloated about his appropriation of Venezuelan oil, declaring, “to the victor belong the spoils.” But the leader who visited Trump two days later, China’s Xi Jinping, was presumably unimpressed.
Trump's UN Bluster Didn't Impress Xi, Putin or Iran
September 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Donald Trump loves playing the tough guy. The president postured from the podium at the United Nations this week.
Saudi Arabia Can’t Trust the US But Has No Other Options
The world is in a strange liminal space, between a decaying, American-led order and some new geopolitical structure that has yet to cohere. Witness the strategic dilemmas Saudi Arabia faces in a violent, unsettled Middle East. Converging conflicts have put the vulnerable kingdom in a strategic vise — and shown that Saudi Arabia may not be able to rely on an ambivalent US in the future, even though it can’t do without American help just yet.
Saudi Arabia Can’t Trust the US But Has No Other Options
September 24, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Trump and MBS in more congenial times, Nov. 18, 2025.
The US Can Slow Down AI and Stay Ahead of China
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visits Washington next week, artificial intelligence will be near the top of the agenda. The dialogue that the US and China began earlier this year has gained urgency as fears of out-of-control AI have spurred calls for a slowdown in innovation at the frontier. But as the US debate over AI regulation intensifies, consider this: A pause by American labs will be meaningful only if paired with Chinese restraint.
The US Can Slow Down AI and Stay Ahead of China Original
September 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC Can’t we just get along? Photographer: men Ben Youssef /AFP/Getty Images When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visits Washington next week, artificial intelligence will be near the top of the agenda.
Why Trump and Xi Won't Cooperate on AI Safety
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: Prospects for AI safety measures appear dim ahead of the U.S.-China summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the BRICS summit in India, and China moves to replenish its oil stockpiles. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.
Sea, Space, and Cyberspace Are All Under Siege
Most people don’t realize how profoundly their lives have been shaped by freedom of the commons. The ability of goods, information and people to move with minimal friction through several crucial, shared domains — seas, skies, space and cyberspace — underpins our global economy. It has facilitated world-changing booms in commerce and prosperity as well as the remarkable great-power peace that has prevailed since 1945. Freedom of the commons is at the heart of the modern world order.
Sea, Space and Cyberspace Are All Under Siege
September 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC Most people don’t realize how profoundly their lives have been shaped by freedom of the commons.
How to Survive in a World Without Rules
Not so long ago, it seemed that the world was becoming more civilized. The end of the Cold War was supposed to bring the triumph of the rules-based order. Enlightened norms and cooperation, buttressed by a broad-minded superpower, would supplant anarchic patterns of the past. It was an inspiring vision—and, alas, an illusion. Now, all around the world, rules are in retreat. Aggression and conquest are surging; economic coercion and predation are rampant.
Putin’s shadow war against Europe is getting more intense
Grueling wars are now the global norm. For years, a brutal conflict has consumed Ukraine. For months, a grinding faceoff has convulsed the Persian Gulf. Now Russia is escalating a different kind of fight: a shadow war of violent, quasi-covert coercion against Europe. The continent, once a paragon of post-Cold War peace,........ © The Japan Times
Putin’s shadow war against Europe is getting more intense
Grueling wars are now the global norm. For years, a brutal conflict has consumed Ukraine. For months, a grinding faceoff has convulsed the Persian Gulf. Now Russia is escalating a different kind of fight: a shadow war of violent, quasi-covert coercion against Europe. The continent, once a paragon of post-Cold War peace, faces a dangerous struggle, just as ambiguous signals from Washington make Moscow harder to deter.
How to Survive in a World Without Rules
Not so long ago, it seemed that the world was becoming more civilized. The end of the Cold War was supposed to bring the triumph of the rules-based order. Enlightened norms and cooperation, buttressed by a broad-minded superpower, would supplant anarchic patterns of the past. It was an inspiring vision—and, alas, an illusion. Now, all around the world, rules are in retreat. Aggression and conquest are surging; economic coercion and predation are rampant.
World Order Archives
Commentary Foreign Policy How to survive in a world where rules matter less and raw power matters more. BY Hal Brands ON 9 Sep 26
Putin’s Shadow War Against Europe Is Getting More Intense
Grueling wars are now the global norm. For years, a brutal conflict has consumed Ukraine. For months, a grinding faceoff has convulsed the Persian Gulf. Now Russia is escalating a different kind of fight: a shadow war of violent, quasi-covert coercion against Europe. The continent, once a paragon of post-Cold War peace, faces a dangerous struggle, just as ambiguous signals from Washington make Moscow harder to deter.
Putin’s Shadow War Against Europe Is Getting More Intense
Photographer: Ramil Sitdikov/AFP/Getty Images (Bloomberg Opinion) -- drone struck missile detonated arms depots an array threatened apparently warned seeking tougher air exercises to Norway talk about posture review confirmed The Landscape of...
The Whole World Is in Crisis. Get Used to It
The struggle for the Strait of Hormuz rages on, new US sanctions threats against Iran notwithstanding. Russian drone and missile strikes punctuate a savage war in Ukraine now approaching its half-decade mark. Fierce competitions afflict regions from East Asia to Eastern Europe. American alliances are in a state of upheaval, while the global economy is fractured by tariffs and sanctions. It seems that nearly every week brings the next AI breakthrough, both promising and portentous.
The Whole World Is in Crisis. Get Used to It
August 27, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg The struggle for the Strait of Hormuz rages on, new US sanctions threats against Iran notwithstanding.
Perma-crisis Archives
The Whole World Is in Crisis. Get Used to It Welcome to the geopolitical perma-crisis.
The US Has Entered Its Aging, Endangered Hegemon Era
President Donald Trump promised a golden age. Instead, he has ushered in a period of pervasive strategic peril. Just 19 months into his presidency, America’s military is overtaxed, its alliances are strained, and its adversaries are emboldened. Threats of instability, even violent conflict, are surging simultaneously in several regions. The combination of Trumpian blunders with the entropy that often afflicts aging hegemons has thrust America into a danger zone it won’t easily escape.
The US Has Entered Its Aging, Endangered Hegemon Era
August 20, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTC Photographer: Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images President Donald Trump promised a golden age. Instead, he has ushered in a period of pervasive strategic peril.
Not Losing the Iran War | Interview: Hal Brands
General Jonah Goldberg can’t get war off his mind, so instead of losing another round of Battleship, he invites Hal Brands, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and hallmate, to discuss the ongoing war in Iran and whether or not we have an exit strategy, a possibility of a world war, and our commitment to allies.
Discussing How the Iran War is Pulling Resources Away from Asia: Brands on NPR’s “Morning Edition”
Senior Fellow Hal Brands discusses how the Iran War is pulling resources away from Asia on NPR’s “Morning Edition.”
The Test of US-China Ties Is in the Western Pacific, Not Washington
Come mid-September, the eyes of the world will be on Washington, when President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet for their next summit. Analysts will scour the proceedings for clues about the course of the relationship. But to grasp what’s happening and what’s most significant, watch the Western Pacific. That crucial, contested region is where the geopolitical ambitions of China and the US meet head-on, and where the clash for primacy grows ever more intense.
The Test of US-China Ties Is in the Western Pacific, Not Washington
August 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Unwelcome visitors at Scarborough Reef Photographer: Jam Sta Rosa/AFP/Getty Images Come mid-September, the eyes of the world will be on Washington, when President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet for...
The Autocratic Alliance Is Getting Even Stronger
Russia helps Iran target US bases in the Persian Gulf. Ukraine strikes an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea to disrupt strategic trade between Moscow and Tehran. Rumors abound that China is preparing to sell Iran air defenses and that North Korea may dispatch more troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. Taken separately, these look like isolated incidents.
The Autocratic Alliance Is Getting Even Stronger
August 7, 2026 at 5:00 AM UTC Russia's President Vladimir Putin walks with China's President Xi Jinping and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on September 3, 2025.
America’s Superintelligence Dilemma
For years, experts have predicted that artificial intelligence would revolutionize world politics. History may record 2026 as the moment the revolution arrived. From the start of this year, continuous developments have underscored the possibilities and perils of the AI era, from the use of AI in U.S. military interventions to the emergence of AI cyberweapons that can significantly outperform human operators.
America’s Superintelligence Dilemma Original
For years, experts have predicted that artificial intelligence would revolutionize world politics. History may record 2026 as the moment the revolution arrived. From the start of this year, continuous developments have underscored the possibilities and perils of the AI era, from the use of AI in U.S. military interventions to the emergence of AI cyberweapons that can significantly outperform human operators.
AI Is Now Power — and America’s Lead Is Shrinking
The AI age is getting very real. Not so long ago, the impacts of AI on politics, war and statecraft were still mostly hypothetical. Today, they’re arriving with jarring force and speed. In January, US forces kicked down the door of the Venezuelan despot Nicolás Maduro in a daring, AI-assisted raid. In February and March, the US and Israel used AI-powered targeting and intelligence tools to orchestrate a high-intensity blitz against Iran.
AI Is Now Power — and America’s Lead Is Shrinking
The AI age is getting very real. Not so long ago, the impacts of AI on politics, war and statecraft were still mostly hypothetical. Today, they’re arriving with jarring force and speed.
Iran’s Strikes on US Bases Reveal a Global Vulnerability
The Iranian missile strike that killed US servicemembers in Jordan last weekend is indicative of a Middle East conflict spiraling toward renewed escalation. Yet it also reveals a deeper shift and a bigger problem in how America projects military power around the world. The shift is that the US is moving its Middle Eastern military posture westward, toward Jordan and Israel, to cope with the glaring vulnerability of its Persian Gulf basing network.
Iran’s Strikes on US Bases Reveal a Global Vulnerability
The Iranian missile strike that killed US servicemembers in Jordan last weekend is indicative of a Middle East conflict spiraling toward renewed escalation.
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The Anti-Strategic President
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-anti-strategic-president-w-hal Eric welcomes back friend of the show Professor Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The two discuss Hal’s recent work, beginning with his column in Bloomberg dissecting the key strategic errors that Trump has made in the ongoing war with Iran.
Jaw-Jaw or War-War? — An Update on Iran
https://current-account-with-clay-lowe.pinecast.co/episode/9681e22a/jaw-jaw-or-war-war-an-update-on-iran The conflict involving Iran has entered another period of uncertainty, with diplomatic efforts faltering and regional tensions rising once again.
Trump Won’t Have Any More Easy Foreign-Policy Victories
When President Donald Trump launched the Iran war in late February, he promised a rapid, stunning triumph. This week, he was forced to renew a conflict of unknown duration, with uncertain prospects, to break Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and undo the damage his war has caused. That’s a daunting endeavor — and an apt symbol of the state of Trump’s foreign policy. Eighteen months into his presidency, Trump is running out of chances for the easy wins he prizes.
Trump Won’t Have Any More Easy Foreign-Policy Victories
When President Donald Trump launched the Iran war in late February, he promised a rapid, stunning triumph.
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