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Articles by Hal n back
Gold Drops To Key Technical Support After $2 Billion Purge
After surging above its 50-day moving-average on Friday, it appears someone is keen for that key technical level not to hold as they dumped almost $2 billion notional in seconds this morning, testing down to the 50DMA (but holding for now). 15,000 contracts dumped in under two minutes... but for now the 50DMA is holding... The Dollar Index has been flying around after the Merkel headlines over the weekend...
Caught On Tape: Passengers Horrified As American Airlines Plane Catches Fire At Gate
Being dragged off a plane may not be the biggest fear for travellers nowadays... As passengers waited patiently to board their American Airlines flight from Hong Kong to LA, a few, then all, suddenly noticed the plane - parked close to the terminal - had caught fire. As The Mirror reports, footage from inside the airport shows families, including a young child, looking at the huge flames through the glass. Many people recorded the extraordinary scene on their mobile phones.
CBO Warns Of Fiscal Catastrophe As A Result Of Exponential Debt Growth In The U.S.
In a just released report from the CBO looking at the long-term US budget outlook, the budget office forecasts that both government debt and deficits are expected to soar in the coming 30 years, with debt/GDP expected to hit 150% by 2047 if the current government spending picture remains unchanged.
Wal-Mart Rises After Earnings, Comps, Guidance Beat Expectations, Sales Miss
With concerns over the state of the US consumer - especially the low- and middle-income shopper base - lingering, analysts were looking forward to today's Q4 results by America's largest retailer for some further clarity, and they were not disappointed with what they saw: WalMart reported non-GAAP Q4 EPS of $1.30, beating expectations of $1.29 by one cent. The adjusted number included 8 cents in non-GAAP addbacks to a GAAP number of $1.22.
Bill Blain: What The BOJ Just Did Is "Recipe For Disaster"
Some interesting, and accurate, thoughts in this morning's edition of Bill Blain's "Morning Porridge", who - despite calling this website a "tabloid" in the past - now agrees with what we have claimed all along for the past 7 years. * * * Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge September 21st 2016 After a “comprehensive” review of monetary policy, The Bank of Japan has introduced a new package, including QQE – which boils down to managing the steepness of the yield curve.
New DNC Chair Says Outrage Over Clinton's Pay-To-Play Is Attempt To "Criminalize Normal Behavior"
Yesterday, Donna Brazile, the new DNC Chair, appeared on ABC's "This Week" and declared that pay for play like "someone who is a donor...saying I want access" is just an attempt to "criminalize behavior that is normal." Specifically, when asked about pay for play allegations against the Clinton Foundation, Brazile responded as follows: "First of all, Martha, the way I look at it, I’ve been a government official.
Wholesale Inventories Rise, Sales Surge Most In 4 Years
While hope springs eternal for Q3 GDP, the revised jump in Q2 inventories data (+0.3% in June vs 0.0% exp and +0.2% in May revised up from initial) suggests perhaps Q3 will be a let-down. But all eyes will be focused on Wholesale Sales which surged 1.9% MoM - the most since Sept 2012, though we note sales remain lower (-0.45%) YoY and inventories higher (+0.24%) YoY.
CLSA Reminds Everyone: The Economy Was Struggling Long Before Brexit
As a result of Brexit, we pointed out that companies now will have a convenient scapegoat for any future earnings misses, or at the very least use Brexit as a reason to lower guidance for the remainder of the year without any pushback from analysts. We also noted that with the referendum behind us, everyone would conveniently forget that earnings expectations had already been continuously revised down for quite some time now, long before Brexit.
London's Ex-Mayor Compares The European Union To Hitler
If the US presidential election has devolved into a comical soundbite free-for-fall, then the UK has its hands full with Brexit, and how the two opposing camps are approaching the UK's vote to exit the Eurozone on June 23.
The Mouths Of Madness - The Grand Delusion Of Central Bankers
Never before has the Bank of Japan done so much to achieve so little. Even after arranging a record stimulus program and reducing a key interest rate to less than zero, Bloomberg reports that the central bank has failed to boost inflation to its goal of 2 percent. Stocks are trading lower than when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expanded his package of asset purchases in 2014. Exports are declining. One measure of bank lending is at a 14-year high, though loan growth is slowing compared with a year ago.
John Boehner Calls Ted Cruz "A Miserable Son Of A Bitch, Lucifer In The Flesh"
Is the establishment's fervent hatred of Donald Trump starting a U-turn? It's still too early to know, however at least one core Republican, former house speaker John Boehner, has made it very clear he is not a fan of Ted Cruz. At all.
"The Selling Just Won't Stop" - Smart Money Sells Stocks For Near Record 11th Consecutive Week
Last week when BofA reported that "everything is being sold" as its smart money clients (institutional, private and hedge funds) dumped stocks for a whopping 10th consecutive week, it said that "BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the tenth consecutive week, in the amount of $3.98bn. Net sales last week were the largest since September, and the fifth-largest in our data history (since 2008).
70% Of Jobs Added In January Were Minimum Wage Waiters And Retail Workers
For those curious where the big jump in earnings came from, the answer appears rather simple: the reason, according to the BLS' breakdown of jobs added in January (per the Establishment survey), of the 151,000 jobs added in the past month, retail trade added 58,000 jobs in January, while employment in food services and drinking places, aka waiters and bartenders, rose by 47,000 in January. In other words, 70% of the job gains in January went to minimum wage workers.
"Pipe Dreams" Of A Gently Rising Oil Price
What does the world really want from oil prices? There are conflicting views, but, as Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore notes, ultimately a stable and slowly appreciating oil price is probably best. It’s quite clear from price action that financial markets are keen to see oil bounce. Crude (with the yuan) led the early-year rout before spear-heading the broad relief rally last week. And its capitulation yesterday has snuffed out animal spirits globally.
Here Are The Stocks Emerging Markets And Wealth Funds Are Quietly Liquidating
Last weekend we explained how as a result of the dying Petrodollar and the plunging price of oil, emerging markets and Sovereign Wealth Funds such as the ones listed below... ... are forced to liquidate tens of billions in equities around the globe in what has become a largely indiscriminate liquidation wave.
Militia Leader Refuses Sheriff's Roadside Offer To End Standoff: "I Don't Need An Escort"
On Tuesday, Harney County Sheriff David Ward told reporters it was time for Ammon Bundy and the group of militiamen occupying the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge to “leave the community, go home, and end this peacefully.” Bundy, we noted, had no such plans. The handful of armed men holed up in a remote bird sanctuary say they are standing up for state’s rights in a kind of ad hoc, haphazard rekindling of the Sagebrush Rebellion.
The China Narrative That Really Matters
I'm a China bull, let's get that out of the way first. But like anything connected with the global industrial and commodity complex today, from Emerging Markets to MLPs to oil prices, it doesn't matter what the Truth with a capital T might be regarding the real world economic or business fundamentals. The story is broken. The stocks are broken. I've written a lot here in Epsilon Theory about what's happening in China and what it means for the China growth story to break.
Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Just Slashed His Q4 GDP Forecast To 0.5%, Says "It May Be Too High"
Everyone knows the world's foremost Wall Street meteorologist, and sometime Deutsche Bank economist, Joe LaVorgna. For those who are unfamiliar, Joe is the person who in 2014 blamed every. single. negative. data point on the weather. Joe is also the economist who famously lost a forecasting face-off with Groundhog Phil. But most notably, Joe is Wall Street's biggest permabull.
Crude Crashes 15% Post-OPEC To $35 Handle
Well, Sure ... But We Should Keep 'Em In NATO Because, Um ... They Make a MEAN Lamb Kabob!
Gold Is Real Money That Protects The Wealth of Nations
Gold Is Real Money That Protects The Wealth of Nations Editors Note: With the New York Times once again trying to convince us that the Gold Standard is a barbarous relic from the past (see below), we are happy to publish an interesting and informative piece by one of our contributors David Bryan. Gold is real independent money that can be explained in terms of physics and ensures the economic health of a nation.
The Movies Are Becoming Just Like The Markets: A Handful Of Blockbusters And Tons Of Losers
Back in July we first revealed something troubling: leadership breadth was collapsing not just across the Nasdaq... ... but the broader market as well: As the WSJ had calculated, out of a total of 500 stocks, just Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney accounted for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500.
Caption Contest: Obama "Playing Like A Girl" Selfie Edition
Having crushed all in front of them to win The World Cup, the US women's football soccer team met with President Obama at The White House this week who just could not resist but pose for another selfie... adding that "this team taught all of America's children that 'playing like a girl' means you're a badass." Average: Your rating: None Average: 1 (3 votes)
Cacophony Of The Clueless - FedSpeak Reaches Peak Confusion
A friend just mailed us a few items that were posted at Zerohedge today as they came over the wire services. As is by now a well-worn tradition, individual FOMC board members (both members of the board of governors as well as district presidents) are delivering speeches and interviews galore in the wake of the most recent rate non-decision. Superficially one gets the impression that they aren’t really trying to “explain” anything to the hoi-polloi, since it all sounds remarkably uncoordinated.
Did Tim Cook Lie To Save Apple Stock: The "Channel Checks" Paint A Very Gloomy Picture
Back in February 2013, Thorsten Heins, then-CEO of what was once the iconic "smartphone" brand Blackberry, publicly lied that its Hail Mary iPhone competitor, the Z10, had "record" early sales. He told CNET, that "BlackBerry nearly tripled the sales of its best performance over the first week in the U.K., while it had its best first day ever in Canada.
Hedge Fund Hotel California: Smart Money Darlings Crash Up To 42% In One Week
Late last week, we reported that as of mid-August hedge funds are set to record their seventh consecutive years of market underperformance (unless the S&P crashes into year end, the Fed does not lose control, and hedge funds actually end up being "hedged").
RANsquawk Video: BoE's "Super Thursday" sees weakness in GBP while a US Sep'15 rate hike remains on the table following NFP
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Sometimes They Do Ring The Bell At The Top
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog, I’m starting to get the feeling the scorn and ridicule heaped upon Dr. Hussman by the Wall Street shysters is about to be thrown back in their faces. Of course, he isn’t an I told you so type of person. He’s an analytical investor who bases his thinking upon historical facts and valuation methods that have proven accurate over the last 100 years of investing. His two key principles on investing are flashing red.
"Rammed" - Fiat Chrysler Forced To Buy Back 500,000 Pickup Trucks From Customers In Historic Settlement
In a stunning ruling, US safety regulators have mandated that Fiat Chrysler must offer to buy back from customers more than 500,000 Ram pickup trucks and other vehicles as part of a costly deal with safety regulators to settle legal problems in about two dozen recalls.
"The Job Numbers Literally Do Not Add Up"
Payroll Stats Become Even More Implausible Since Q1 GDP was revised lower by almost 1% that meant estimates of productivity were going to be even more out of alignment than they were at the first release. Of course, in a less massaged environment productivity might have preserved some sense if there was less rigidity from the BLS on the employment side.
The "Markets" React To FOMC-Minutes-Implied Fed Confusion
A comment I made after a similar press release a few years ago about our white-collar criminal banking syndicate: Kentucky Derby management owns race track. Kentucky Derby management owns 1 horse. Only 1 horse allowed to race. Judges and timekeepers are paid off. Track officials are paid off. Public can only make 1 bet: That the horse will lose. Track owners short the publics' bet, go double long that it will win. Gambling public left stunned. Track owners laughing their asses off.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses To 2-Year Lows
Despite Markit's PMI exuberance, it appears the awesomeness did not reach Richmond. Printing at a disastrous -8, against expectations of +3, Richmond Fed is the lowest since January 2013. The last 5 months have seen the index drop at its fastest rate since Lehman. Not awesome... Not awesome-er... Charts: Bloomberg Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)
Stocks Have Never Been More Expensive Based On Long-Term Growth Forecasts
As the S&P 500 pushes towards Goldman Sachs 2,100 year end target (for 2015!!) today, we thought it worth considering just how much awesomeness has been pulled forward, priced-in, exuberantly-chased. As the following charts show, based on bottom-up long-term-growth expectations, S&P forward P/E valuations have never been higher. But that's not all... The current Forward P/E of the S&P 500 is dramatically higher than is the 'norm' given bottom-up long-term growth forecasts...
Alibaba Closing In On 6th Largest Company In The US
Alibaba is now the 6th largest company of all US-traded entities... and is the biggest non-US-domiciled corporation in the world (having added $80 billion in market cap in the last 3 weeks alone) Alibaba has exploded past its other mega cap names in the last few weeks... adding $80 billion since Bullard's "QE4" sputtering And as far as Dotcom 2.0 valuations - we are sure there is nothing to see here, move along!!! This time is different, of course, because you see..
Interviewing John Hussman: "The Market Is Overvalued By 100%"
John Hussman is highly respected for his prodigious use of data and adherence to what it tells him about the state of the financial markets. His regular weekly market commentary is widely regarded as one of the best-researched, best-articulated publications available to money managers. John's public appearances are rare, so we're especially grateful he made time to speak with us yesterday about the precarious state in which he sees global markets.
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