Not Goldman Sachs

Following China's miraculous PMI jump back into expansion, Markit reports US Manufacturing also rose to 51.5 in March (despite the biggest drop in manufacturing jobs since 2009). As Markit details, output growth is unchanged from February’s 28-month low, and prices charged decline amid further drop in input costs. ISM Manufacturing also jumpedfrom 49.5 to 51.8 - the first 'expansion' in 7 months.

"Whatever it takes" has morphed to "throw everything at it and pray." In a bigger-than-expected bazooka, Mario Draghi sent EURUSD tumbling, Bund yields rising, and stock prices surging (along with considerable bond spread compression). Bank stocks are limit up in various regions but the real question is - what happens if this "doesn't work"? EUR tumbles (but only to one week lows) Despite the uber QE, Bunds are disappointed with only a 10bps cut... DAX is surging...

For Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, there is - to put it mildly - a lot riding on what the ECB announces in just about 10 mintues. Recall it was DB just a month ago when, with its stock plunging to near record lows, the bank issued an appeal to the ECB: "Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us."   As it later turned out, all Deutsche did not want is more negative rates, and was perfectly ok with more QE or a two-tier system, but more NIRP by Draghi seems unavoidable.