Michael Haltman

Or, is the recent up/down movement of the 10-year Treasury bond, 34 basis points in a couple of days, within the range of normalcy, and nothing to worry about? Either way, yields remain at 24-year highs. As an avid bond market watcher, I have always considered the players there the ‘smart money,’ so whether what seem to be significant up/down swings have any economic significance remains an important question with an as-yet-unknown answer.

Surging 10-year Treasury yields reaching 5.26% have entered a critical stress zone, threatening real estate and equity valuations. A move toward 6% could trigger a systemic crisis as borrowing costs outpace corporate returns. At What Yield Do Markets And The Economy Implode?

10-year Treasury yields hit 2007 highs, surging past 5% despite falling oil prices. Stubborn core inflation and massive government debt supply drive this spike, pressuring real estate affordability and commercial refinancing. Crude Oil Prices Have Fallen, So Why Are Bond Yields Surpassing 2007 Highs? There are six forces that can be pointed to as key contributors for the rise in rates, the further drop in real estate affordability, and the refinancing angst in the commercial real estate market.