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Articles by Harvir Dhillon
Economic Monitor: Real wage growth to improve
The economic outlook for the UK has improved over the last month, with several indicators pointing towards recovering household incomes and a gradual improvement in consumers' financial outlook. The BRC Customer Sentiment Monitor for April suggests that most consumers expect the economy to improve over the coming months. Momentum has held up, and the UK’s return to growth over Q1 appears to have continued into Q2.
How a higher paying industry became less labour-intensive
Retail occupations have seen some of the fastest pay growth across British industry. The latest HMRC data suggests that retail pay rose by 7.2% last month compared with the previous year. This puts retail in 3rd place in the pay growth rankings. These heady increases have been a feature of the past two years and have meant an inflation-beating trajectory, even before the National Living Wage uplift due next month. How has the industry responded to these trends?
Call for Evidence: HR Benchmark Q1 2024
Call for Evidence: HR Benchmark Q1 2024 Each year, the BRC seeks vital evidence from its members about pay, rewards and benefits across the industry. The information that you provide in response to this survey enables us to play a vital role in presenting credible and robust evidence to both decide and support our recommendation to the Low Pay Commission, taking into account the economic context and the health of the retail sector.
Economic Monitor: Outlook for inflation improves
The Bank of England (BoE), yesterday, voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, stressing the need to keep rates elevated until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target. Nonetheless, the economic growth outlook improved marginally, and 40% lower gas prices since the end of 2023 are feeding through into a rosier inflation outlook. Consumer confidence continued its improvement and perceptions surrounding economic conditions are finally escaping negative territory.
Time for tea, as shop price inflation falls further
Period covered: January 24Published: January 30, 2024Read time: 1min Shop Price Index Time for tea, as shop price inflation falls further Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium: Some New Year cheer as January shop price inflation slid to its lowest level since May 2022. Non-food goods drove the fall, as many retailers offered heavily discounted goods in their January sales to entice consumer spend amidst weak demand.
Economic Monitor: Demand holds up at the end of 2023
Consumer sentiment improved once more, last month, and perceptions about economic conditions in the year ahead are becoming less pessimistic. This improvement was also reflected in services activity having rebounded in the last two months of 2023, with firms reporting better-than-expected consumer spending on leisure and hospitality services.
Economic Monitor: Consumer Confidence Improves in Run Up to Christmas
Services activity expanded last month, according to the Purchasing Manager’s Index, indicating economic activity may have marginally expanded over November. Consumer confidence had experienced a hiccup in October but demonstrated resilience with consumers feeling more optimistic about the state of their personal finances, ahead of the festive season.
Retail insolvencies rise by 546 in Q3 2023
Business insolvencies are trending upwards in Great Britain, and in Q3 2023 there were 6,306 business failures (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis), though future revisions are likely to bring this number up. If we focus on the retail sector specifically, there were 546 insolvencies over Q3 2023.
Economic Monitor: Consumer Confidence Experiences Hiccup
"Overall economic growth is expected to plateau over the final quarter of 2023. Despite signs of a cooling labour market in higher unemployment and falling demand for workers, consumption continues to hold up and services activity even managed to expand in the run-up to the final quarter. Early survey evidence suggests consumer demand is weakening, and this is visible also in retail sales, with volumes showing slight declines relative to a year ago.
The Changing Tides of the UK Labour Market
The dynamics of the UK labour market have been hard to get a read on in recent times. What was once considered a structurally tight labour market is now displaying unmistakable signs of loosening. In this blog post, we will delve into this morning's published figures and explore how the retail sector fits into this evolving narrative. A Shift in Labour Demand: The labour market landscape has witnessed a significant transformation.
Retail Sales Drop in July
Retail sales fell sharply during July, with volumes declining by 1.2% on the month, following downwardly revised positive growth of 0.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics. Much of the strong performance during June was attributed to strong weather, though conversely, the sixth wettest July since 1836 had a huge impact on footfall, reducing the overall number of shopping trips.
Economic Briefing Report: Inflation back into single-digits
Period covered: June 23Published: June 02, 2023Read time: 1min Economic Briefing Report Economic Briefing Report: Inflation back into single-digits Overall UK inflation has finally fallen back into single-digits. Much of the prior energy price rises have fallen out of the annual inflation calculation, bringing down the headline rate.
Prices on a sugar high
Period covered: March 23Published: March 28, 2023Read time: 1min Shop Price Index Prices on a sugar high Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium: Shop price inflation has yet to peak. As Easter approaches, the rising cost of sugar coupled with high manufacturing costs left some customers with a sour taste, as price rises for chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks increased in March.
Shop prices ease
Period covered: December 22Published: January 04, 2023Read time: 1min Shop Price Index Shop prices ease Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium: It was a challenging Christmas for many households across the UK. Not only did the cold snap force people to spend more on their energy bills, but the prices of many essential foods also rose as reverberations from the war in Ukraine continued to keep high the cost of animal feed, fertiliser and energy.
My Journey out of Sikhism
"Is that it? What about metaphysics and ethics and philosophy?" It’s not often that one simply kicks back and evaluates their place in the cosmos. I happen to do it quite a lot. I'm quite a curious person and I like to think philosophically about things. As Christopher Hitchens said (words which will always stay with me) “The essence of the independent mind lies not in what it thinks, but in how it thinks”. I wasn't always like this, though.
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