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Articles by Helmut Norpoth
Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory
However unpredictable the ascent of Donald Trump onto the stage of presidential politics may have been, one forecast model has been highly confident for months that he would win the election on November 8, 2016. The Primary Model predicted on March 7, 2016 that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty.
Lost in the New Deal Realignment: GI Joe | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
Altschuler, Glenn C., and Blumin, Stuart M.. 2009. The GI Bill: A New Deal for Veterans. New York: Oxford University Press. American Political Science Association. 1952. “Findings and Recommendations of the Special Committee on Service Voting.” American Political Science Review 46:512–23. Axelrod, Robert. 1972. “Where the Votes Come From: An Analysis of Electoral Coalitions, 1952–1968.” American Political Science Review 66:11–20. Bennett, Michael J. 1996.
Joe Biden lead in polls does not ensure final victory for election
Joe BidenJoe BidenOVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Murkowski, Mattis criticism ratchets up pressure on GOP over Trump| Esper orders hundreds of active-duty troops outside DC sent home day after reversal | Iran releases US Navy veteran Michael White Davis: 72 hours cementing the real choice for November OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Trump signs order removing environmental reviews for major projects | New Trump air rule will limit future pollution regulations, critics say | DNC climate group calls for larger federal...
Trump not a bad bet to win reelection
Updated April 17, 2020 6:00 AM With much of the country in lockdown, millions of Americans out of work, and Wall Street crashes evoking memories of the Great Depression, it may seem foolish to predict a comfortable reelection for President Donald Trump. But that is what my prediction model forecasts: It gives Trump a 91% chance of beating the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. (Trump would also beat Sen.
America’s Largest Denomination: None | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
“ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior.” n.d. https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/. Burner, David. 1986. The Politics of Provincialism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Campbell, David E., Layman, Geoffrey C., Green, John C., and Sumaktoyo, Nathaniel G.. 2018. “Putting Politics First: The Impact of Politics on American Religious and Secular Orientations.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 519–34. Djupe, Paul A., Neilheisel, Jacob R., and Sokhey, Anand E..
The American Voter in 1932: Evidence from a Confidential Survey | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
. . Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890–1960 . : . . . In The Coming to Power: Critical Elections in American History , ed. , –54. : . . . What the Employer Thinks: Executives’ Attitudes toward Employees . : . . . “Digest,” archived under Campaign of 1932, Polls. Herbert Hoover Presidential Library-Museum, West Branch, Iowa. , , and . . The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign , . : . . b.
PS: Political Science & Politics: Volume 49 - Elections in Focus | Cambridge Core
Political scientists have devoted vastly more attention to general presidential elections than to party nominations for president. This emphasis might be reasonable if parties could be counted on to nominate generic representatives of their traditions. But it is clear that they cannot.
Trump isn’t benefiting from economic growth. But he’s not unusual.
As President Trump begins his second year in office, observers have noted how unusual it is for a president to be unpopular in the face of a strong economy. Unemployment is low and the stock market is at record levels. And although a strong economy usually gives presidents a boost, Trump did not benefit from the favorable economic winds during his first year in office. Our research shows, however, that in this respect, Trump is not unusual.
A win for the pollsters: French election predicted accurately
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election produced one clear winner — the polls. After getting it wrong in high-prized contests such as the Brexit vote and the Trump election, polls got it right and uncannily so in predicting the outcome of the French vote Sunday.
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
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Did you like the results of this election? Because it could be a bellwether of elections to come.
Donald Trump Donald TrumpTrump mulling GOP senator for intel chief: report How the Electoral College changes the value of a person, a bit like slavery did Trump puts companies on notice with Carrier deal MORE’s electoral victory in 2016 will earn this election a special place on a very select list of presidential contests that were won without a popular mandate.
Opinion: How demography proved Trump’s destiny
After Gov. Mitt Romney lost the presidential election to Barack Obama in 2012, the Republican National Committee conducted a searing examination. The result was not just an autopsy of one candidate’s defeat but also a dire prognosis of the Republican Party in future contests.
You can't trust polls: Clinton leads, but our polling methods are bunk
Virtually all the opinion polls right now give Hillary Clinton Hillary Rodham ClintonFive unanswered questions after Trump's upset victory Trump win spurs Obama regs Warren: 'Let's jump up and work with' Trump on policies where we overlap MORE a firm lead over Donald Trump Donald TrumpWikiLeaks to Obama: Pardon Manning, Snowden McConnell, Ryan want Priebus as Trump’s chief of staff: report One immigrant's love letter to America MORE in the race for the White House this November.
Why a Trump victory in November is a virtually certainty
To venture the prediction that Donald Trump Donald TrumpWhy a Trump victory in November is a virtually certainty Pence declines to call David Duke 'deplorable' WATCH LIVE: Trump campaigns in battleground NC MORE is a sure bet to be elected President in November sounds about as outlandish, perhaps even ludicrous and delusional as anything coming out of the mouth of the candidate.
My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton
To be sure, Donald Trump, is a long shot in betting markets to win in November. PredictIt, a popular legal wagering website, gives Hillary Clinton a 66 percent chance to win the presidency. She has consistently led Trump in that market for three months, as well as in the Iowa Electronic Markets. And Trump has trailed Clinton — with rare exceptions — in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post. So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president?
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