Henning Hoff
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Executive editor INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY @IPQuarterly /Editor-at-Large @Int_Politik, publ. by @dgapev Co-founder WELTKIOSK @weltkiosk lapsed Londoner
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Articles by Henning Hoff
United Kingdom: Why Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is still clinging on
While the British prime minister is under mounting pressure, he is expected to remain in office for now. But many political observers believe his authority has been fundamentally weakened. 10. February 2026 10. February 2026 For now, Keir Starmer’s position as British prime minister appears secure. (Imago) Sign up now and continue reading immediately No credit card details required. No automatic renewal. Sie haben bereits das Table.Briefing Abonnement? Anmelden und weiterlesen Last updated: 10.
Defending Europe’s Economic Security
In her “State of the European Union” address earlier this month–the first of her second term–European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used the term “economic security” only once, and toward the end of her remarkably combative speech.
Germany’s Government Lacks New Ideas, and It Shows
There is a new sense of mutual respect and consideration oozing through Chancellor Friedrich Merz’ governing coalition of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).
Will German Foreign Policy Ever Change Its Spots?
It is currently unclear what US President Donald Trump’s improvised attempts at summit diplomacy, starting with his red-carpet roll-out for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, will actually achieve. Whether they will lead to the end of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is certainly debatable.
Merz’ Improvised “Dirty Work” Foreign Policy Raises Eyebrows
It was a media engagement that shouldn’t have caused him any trouble. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, sitting in front of a scenic Rocky Mountains ridge in Kananaskis, Canada, gave a live interview to public broadcaster ZDF on the second day of the G7 summit–the morning after US President Donald Trump had left dramatically late at night to “manage” the war Israel had launched against Iran four days earlier.
A World Order Minus One
World orders come and go. And it’s no news that the current one, built in large part by the United States after 1945, is on the wane. What’s highly unusual, however, is that it is being most actively destroyed by the very power that established it and benefited greatly from it. The second Trump administration has made it more than clear that it is no longer particularly interested in upholding the global order or enabling global governance.
The EU and the UK Turn a Page
In the minds of those in the United Kingdom who supported leaving the European Union, “British fish” always meant more than just the ever-dwindling shoals of cod or haddock passing through the territorial waters of the United Kingdom.
A Terrible Start for Merz
With Friedrich Merz, it seems, Germany is entering new, uncharted territory. The 69-year-old leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) only become German chancellor on his second attempt. And he has form. It already took three rounds of voting for him to be elected leader of the CDU back in 2021. The adage by Irish absurdist playwright Samuel Beckett—“fail again, fail better”—comes to mind.
Verteidigungsfinanzierung: Warum London vermehrt nach Brüssel blickt
Auch im Vereinigten Königreich sollen die Verteidigungsausgaben massiv steigen. Bei der Finanzierung schaut London in Richtung EU. In Sachen erhöhter Verteidigungsausgaben gehört das Vereinigte Königreich zu den Trendsettern: Nach einigem Zögern kündigte der seit Juli 2024 amtierende Labour-Premierminister Keir Starmer diesen Februar eine Steigerung der Ausgaben von aktuell 2,3 auf 2,5 Prozent des Bruttoinlandprodukts ab dem Finanzjahr 2027/28 an.
Voted Out of Power, the Greens Are Still Shaping Germany
“The Greens are to blame!” At some point in 2024, when the popular frustration with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ permanently bickering governing coalition of center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) was at a high, it became fashionable to fault the Green Party for all that was wrong with Germany and the world at large.
The China Factor
2025 sees the 50th anniversary of the establishment of relations between China and the European Union. There’s not much of a festive mood in Brussels or Beijing, however. Suggestions that Chinese President Xi Jinping may pay a visit to the de facto EU capital for this year’s EU-China summit to mark the occasion have been rebuffed by the Chinese government. Xi will be sending Premier Li Qiang instead, while a date still needs to be fixed for the summit. In 2024, it didn’t take place at all.
Merz Gets Off to a Zigzagging Start
“Grand” isn’t what it used to be. When Angela Merkel built her first “grand” coalition between her center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) back in 2005, its parliamentary majority was 448 out of 614 seats.
The elections in Germany seen by analysts
While two-thirds of Germans continue to favor their country providing military aid to Ukraine, at current levels or even higher, and a majority would consider sending in the Bundeswehr to support a ceasefire, Ukraine and the defense of Europe have played a marginal role in this election campaign, according to recent polls.
Getting Europe’s Defense Right
For Europe, defense is key. This is the message the Polish EU presidency is sending with its slogan “Security, Europe!” It is what is animating European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. It is what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte means when he calls for a “shift to a wartime mindset.” Now European states, including the United Kingdom, need to make it happen―and fast.
What Will Germany Do Next?
The so-called “traffic light” coalition government of Olaf Scholz, combining the chancellor’s Social Democrats (SPD) with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), lasted less than three years. It may “only” have been a “transitional government,” as former Green leader Omid Nouripour (a foreign policy expert) described it in late summer 2024. At that time, the writing of an early end was already on the wall, and the self-chosen moniker of a “coalition for progress” sounded hollow.
The Status Quo Is History
Historic change is always easier to spot in retrospect. In the speech defining his chancellorship, Olaf Scholz on February 27, 2022, spoke of a “Zeitenwende” (historic turn) when describing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three days after President Vladimir Putin launched it. Yet, Germany’s squabbling coalition parties, and in particular the Free Democrats (FDP) who put party before country and forced an early break-up of the Scholz government last fall, never really rose to the occasion.
A Touch of Trumpism Reaches Germany’s Election Campaign
“Only the AfD can save Germany.” With a post in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland on social media platform X, billionaire entrepreneur and US presidential advisor Elon Musk entered the German election campaign shortly before Christmas—and he has managed to dominate it over the holidays.
The Underwhelming Scholz Government Meets an Untimely End
The early end of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government had been anticipated, including by this column, for some time, but when it came late on Wednesday night, it still came with a twist. For weeks, Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the fiscally hawkish Free Democrats (FDP) had been obviously looking to create a situation that would make early elections inevitable. Last night, however, Scholz simply sacked him.
Waiting for Christian Lindner
This fall in political Berlin, all eyes are on Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is also the leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). Lindner has made no secret of his party’s deep unhappiness with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ governing coalition, in which the FDP is the most junior of the three partners, together with Scholz’ center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. Almost from the beginning, the FDP has often behaved as the government’s internal opposition.
Waiting for Christian
This fall in political Berlin, all eyes are on Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is also the leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). Lindner has made no secret of his party’s deep unhappiness with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ governing coalition, in which the FDP is the most junior of the three partners, together with Scholz’ center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. Almost from the beginning, the FDP has often behaved as the government’s internal opposition.
Waiting for Lindner
This fall in political Berlin, all eyes are on Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is also the leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). Lindner has made no secret of his party’s deep unhappiness with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ governing coalition, in which the FDP is the most junior of the three partners, together with Scholz’ center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. Almost from the beginning, the FDP has often behaved as the government’s internal opposition.
Rethinking European Defense
“A Europe that protects”—that was one of the ideas that animated French President Emmanuel Macron’s first Sorbonne speech back in 2017. When the young president first coined the phrase, little did he know how urgent this requirement would be seven years on, and in its most direct and literal sense. Europe faces threats of a magnitude unseen since the end of the Cold War.
The Self-Declared “Stability Anchor” Looks Adrift
It’s official! Germany is in campaign mode. Sure, it’s still a year to go before the next general election, scheduled for September 28, 2025. The coalition government led by Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz, however, seems at the end of its tether, and the political parties, within the government and without, have started to act as if elections may come at any time.
Berlin’s Holiday (from History) Mood
It was a piece of good news that was urgently needed. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that members of his country’s air force were flying the first US-made F-16 fighter jets, which they had received in recent days. “F-16s are in Ukraine. We did it,” Zelensky said at a location undisclosed for security reasons.
El socio más cercano de Alemania se aleja aún más
En junio de 2023, se publicó la primera Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional (ESN) alemana tras 18 meses de elaboración. Este extenso documento no es una estrategia como tal, sino más bien un compendio de todo aquello que Berlín desearía hacer en un mundo ideal, describiendo la imagen que Alemania tiene de sí misma, así como el consenso vigente en materia de política exterior y de seguridad sin fijar ningún tipo de prioridad.
El socio más cercano de Alemania se aleja aún más
En junio de 2023, se publicó la primera Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional (ESN) alemana tras 18 meses de elaboración. Este extenso documento no es una estrategia como tal, sino más bien un compendio de todo aquello que Berlín desearía hacer en un mundo ideal, describiendo la imagen que Alemania tiene de sí misma, así como el consenso vigente en materia de política exterior y de seguridad sin fijar ningún tipo de prioridad.
Germany’s closest partner slips further away
About a year ago, Germany’s first-ever National Security Strategy (NSS) was published after 18 months in the making. The lengthy paper is not really a strategy. Rather, it is a collection of all the things Berlin would like to do in an ideal world, describing Germany’s self-image as well as the foreign and security consensus at the time without setting any priorities.
The Fractured Relationship
The postwar history of the relationship between France and Germany has always been one of ups and downs. In recent years, however, the appearance of solidity and permanence has been undercut by ever-wilder rollercoaster rides, often instigated from the top.
Germany’s Toxic Far Right
The lead candidate had defended the Waffen-SS, Nazi Germany’s most brutal troops involved in the Holocaust. His closest advisor was arrested as a Chinese spy. Another candidate was under suspicion for taking cash bribes from Russia for pushing Kremlin propaganda lines. Their party was seen as so toxic that French far-right leader Marine Le Pen threw it out of her parliamentary group in the European Parliament.
From Beijing to Kyiv
Was there some hint? A Ukrainian request? Or was it simply wishful thinking, a hope against hope, construed out of thin air? When members of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ circle discussed the aims of his second China visit ahead of the trip, which took place earlier this week, it was clear that there was hope for some sort of a breakthrough. And it had all to do with Scholz’ first trip to Beijing in the fall of 2022.
Europe’s Vote, Europe’s Future
It’s perhaps not a good sign if you have to explain to voters why voting matters. In the case of the European Parliament, which was long perceived as an inconsequential body, low turnouts and a propensity to use elections for protest votes, spoke of a basic disconnect. Not anymore.
Trouble at the Top
When French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Berlin on March 15 for something that felt like an emergency meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz knew better than to serve a “fish roll” again.
On the Wrong Track
“This coalition government has ambitions,” Finance Minister Christian Linder, the leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), told Germany’s parliament during the budget debate this week. “This is an ambitious budget, not an austerity one.” Somehow, however, it feels very different.
Europe’s Geostrategic Turn
Over the past weeks and months, I conducted an experiment. In informal chats and background talks with contacts from the chancellery, the foreign office, the defense ministry, and others, I always threw in one particular question into the conversations: “Are you also working on counterstrategies? Does geostrategy play a role in your thinking?” The uniform reaction was a baffled look. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, German foreign policy has not been used to work against anyone or anything.
Into the Unknown
There is much doom and gloom going around in Berlin when it comes to greeting the new year. If things go wrong, be it at the elections for a new European Parliament in June (and the subsequent forming of the new European Commission), or, even more consequential, at the US presidential elections in November, Berlin may likely be transported into a completely new and unprecedented orbit when it comes to foreign and security policy.
Germany’s “Plumbers of Power” Lack Far-Sightedness
Germany, or at least its shaky coalition government, is on the brink, or so current headlines suggest after “Karlsruhe,” shorthand for the country’s powerful Constitutional Court (and the name of the south-western town where the court is located), has spoken and declared Germany’s current budget unlawful.
Squaring the Circle
Hamas’ horrific and inhumane attacks on southern Israel on October 7—slaughtering over 1,400 Israelis and others, including women, children, babies, and the elderly, most of them civilians, and kidnapping over 200 to keep as hostages—has shocked and likely changed Israel: the state built to make sure that Jews who, over centuries, had suffered pogroms and ultimately, the Holocaust, could live in safety saw a pogrom perpetrated within its own borders. It will likely change the Middle East, too.
Toward a Wider and Deeper EU
One can often fault German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for hesitancy, but rarely for inconsistency. Since taking office almost two years ago, the chancellor has been speaking out in favor of EU enlargement, with a renewed focus on the so-called Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia), which were promised an “EU perspective” almost 20 years ago, but have since stalled, if not regressed, on their varying paths to EU membership.
Germany Should Reengage with a United Kingdom in Flux
In Western popular culture, seven years is the period after which grown-up relationships most often experience stress and tend to break (think Billy Wilder’s The Seven Year Itch with Marilyn Monroe in one of her famous roles). Will the reverse be true when it comes to the British-German relationship? The recent 73rd Koenigswinter conference, which has been bringing together politicians, academics, businesspeople, and journalists from both countries since 1950, certainly pointed that way.
A False Restart
The end of summer is a bit like New Year’s Eve, a time for making resolutions and plans for self-improvement. It’s no different for the German government: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ Social Democrats (SPD) and their two coalition partners—the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP)—have been returning from their various holiday destinations vowing that with the Berlin political machine revving up its engines again, they are going to govern in a better way.
What to Expect from Germany’s China Strategy
“Direct dialogue, personal conversations, real exchanges—in our extraordinary times full of global challenges and crises, this is more important than ever. … Let’s continue the dialogue, so we understand each other well.” Thus spoke German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, welcoming a high-ranking nine-person Chinese ministerial delegation led by new Prime Minister Li Qiang to the chancellery last week. Don’t worry, though. Germany’s usually reserved chancellor hasn’t turned touchy-feely all of a sudden.
Europe and the Global South
The brutal war of aggression that Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed against Ukraine almost 500 days ago is not only continuing to reconfigure Europe and the world, but is also increasingly destabilizing Russia itself, as the aborted “march on Moscow” by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries on June 23-24 showed.
The China Challenge
“Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen in 100 years,” Chinese President Xi Jinping told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, as he departed Moscow on March 22 following a three-day summit . “And we are the ones driving these changes together. … Take care please, my dear friend.” Xi’s emphatic words should make it clear to even the most optimistic observer that today’s China presents a challenge to Germany and Europe that has been underestimated for far too long.
Boris Pistorius’ Budget Battle
There are government ministers who are seen as such a good fit for their office that one instantly assumes they’ve always been there. A case in point is Germany’s new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats (SPD) who took over in late January after his hapless predecessor, Christine Lambrecht, threw in the towel following what many in Berlin consider a lost year for Germany’s armed forces.
The Scholz Way
During the last couple of days, it started to feel like a typical Olaf Scholz maneuver. It certainly appears so in retrospect. The chorus of critics at home and abroad had become louder and louder: Would Germany send Leopard tanks to Ukraine? If not, why not? And would it block other countries doing so? The German chancellor stayed tight-lipped, only to confirm that no decision had been taken yet. Also, in his view, it was one that required acting in “strategic lockstep” with Germany’s closest allies.
New Economic World Order
There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, launched just over 10 months ago on February 24, 2022, is not only reconfigurating world politics. It is also partly causing and partly accelerating fundamental shifts in the global economy. Russia is becoming a pariah in economic terms, too.
Germany’s National Security Strategy Is in Limbo
The Bismarcks (well, some of them) are after Annalena Baerbock. When it became known in December that the German foreign minister had renamed a meeting room in her ministry previously known as the “Bismarck Room” as “Hall of German Unity,” right-wing tabloid BILD saw a chance to kick up a fuss.
Germany’s Misguided Self-Satisfaction
There has been some self-congratulatory satisfaction going around in Berlin in recent days. German diplomacy the way German Chancellor Olaf Scholz prefers it—a softly-softly approach when it comes to the thornier international issues—seems to have paid off. Exhibit A is the recent G20 Bali summit meeting.
Scholz Goes It Alone on China
Scholz Goes It Alone on China Henning Hoff Internationale Politik Quarterly November 3, 2022 Having pushed through a deal in which a Chinese state-owned company takes a minority share in one of Hamburg’s port terminals, the German chancellor is getting ready for his solo trip to see President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It is a missed opportunity. Read Full Article »
Scholz Goes It Alone on China
Picture the scene: The G20 summit in Bali on November 15-16. Russia has brutally invaded Ukraine and destroyed Europe’s post-Cold War peace order—and most likely after getting the nod from Beijing (following the Russian-Chinese “no limits” partnership announced on February 4, just 20 days before the war, although the Chinese deny this). Russian President Vladimir Putin is not only confronted by his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been invited specially by the Indonesian hosts.
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