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Submitted: 10 January 2026 You are already at the latest version This study develops a regime-switching credit-risk forecasting model for consumer-finance portfolios that dynamically adapts to changing macroeconomic conditions. Using monthly data from 2016–2024 covering 3.8 million loan accounts and 27 macro indicators, the model identifies two latent economic regimes—expansion and stress—via a Markov-switching structure.
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